… And he chose Peace: 2 WEEKS OF CEASEFIRE, START !
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war, as it will update per second; any volatility from the next morning will get the charts to the highest levels. Stay highly cautious.
Data:
🔵 Market Theme
Low-volatility consolidation under a “higher-for-longer” regime.
Markets entered a pause phase after the recent oil-driven volatility: equities moved sideways, yields stabilized at elevated levels, and macro signals continued to point to slowdown without disinflation.
[🟦 Global Rates | Stabilization at elevated levels, no clear easing signal]
- United States (USTs):
- 2Y: ~3.75–3.80%
- 5Y: ~3.85–3.90%
- 10Y: ~4.20–4.25%
- 30Y: ~4.75–4.80%
→ Mild decline in yields, but still historically high
- United Kingdom (Gilts):
- 10Y: ~4.65–4.70%
→ Remains elevated; inflation still dominant
- 10Y: ~4.65–4.70%
- Euro Area:
- Germany 10Y: ~2.90–2.95%
- France 10Y: ~3.60–3.65%
- Italy 10Y: ~3.75–3.80%
- Australia (ACGB):
- 10Y: ~4.85–4.90%
- Canada (GoC):
- 10Y: ~3.35–3.40%
- Japan (JGB):
- 10Y: ~2.25–2.30%
- China (CGB):
- 10Y: ~1.75–1.80%
👉 Trading implication:
Rates are range-bound but sticky → no confirmation of a sustained bond rally.
[🟩 U.S. Equities | Sideways consolidation with narrow leadership]
- Nasdaq Composite: ~flat to +0.2%
- S&P 500 (US500): ~flat to +0.1%
- Dow Jones: ~flat to -0.1%
Market action remained muted, with mega-cap tech continuing to anchor indices.
👉 Trading implication:
Equities are consolidating, not trending → still tactical rather than structural bullish.
[🟥 Europe Equities | Continued lag amid weak macro backdrop]
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~-0.2% to -0.4%
- DAX (GER40): ~-0.3% to -0.5%
- CAC 40: ~-0.2% to -0.3%
Europe underperformed again as weak data and energy risks persist.
👉 Trading implication:
Europe remains the clearest underweight region.
[🟥 Asia / Japan | FX-driven fragility persists]
- Nikkei 225: ~-1.0%
- FX context:
USD/JPY stayed elevated near ~158–160, maintaining pressure on Japanese assets.
👉 Trading implication:
Asia continues to trade as a high-beta macro risk region.
[🟥 Macro “Red News” | Weak growth signals without inflation relief]
- Eurozone Retail Sales:
- Weaker-than-expected → consumption slowdown
- Germany Industrial Orders:
- Continued contraction → manufacturing recession signals
- S. Services Activity:
- Moderation but still expansionary
- China Services PMI:
- Slight improvement, but recovery remains fragile
👉 Trading implication:
Macro = slowdown trend + persistent inflation risks → central banks remain cautious.
[🟧 High-Impact Headlines | Key drivers]
- Oil remains elevated (~$100+ range)
→ Still the key macro variable - USD remains firm
→ Tightening global financial conditions - Global yields stabilize at high levels
→ Inflation risk still priced - ECB remains hawkishly repriced
→ No near-term easing - BoJ policy pressure continues
→ FX + yield dynamics tightening policy space - Equity market breadth remains narrow
→ Mega-cap dominance persists - China policy support remains incremental
→ No aggressive stimulus
⚡ Cross-Asset Signal Map
| Asset | Signal | Bias |
| USD | Stable to strong | Bullish |
| Oil | Elevated | Bullish |
| Rates | High, stable | Neutral / bearish duration |
| U.S. Equities | Sideways | Neutral |
| Europe | Weak macro | Bearish |
| Asia | FX + oil sensitive | Fragile |
💡 One-Line Trade Takeaway
07.4 reflects a pause in volatility, but not a shift in regime: markets remain constrained by high rates, strong USD, and persistent energy-driven inflation risk.
Companies.
Key Company & Equity Highlights (Deep + Actionable)
+) Advanced Micro Devices — AI Catch-Up Trade Strengthening (Tactical Long)
AMD outperformed as investors rotated into second-tier AI beneficiaries, reflecting a broadening of the AI trade beyond dominant leaders.
👉 Strategy: Tactical long
👉 Risk: Execution vs peers
+) General Motors — ICE Strength Offsetting EV Drag (Neutral)
Core internal combustion engine (ICE) profitability continued to support earnings despite ongoing EV investment pressure.
👉 Strategy: Neutral
👉 Risk: EV transition costs
+) Caterpillar — Infrastructure Cycle Remains Supportive (Accumulate)
Strong backlog and global infrastructure demand reinforced earnings visibility for heavy equipment manufacturers.
👉 Strategy: Accumulate
👉 Risk: Global slowdown
+) Booking Holdings — Travel Demand Holding Up (Accumulate)
Global travel trends remained resilient, supporting bookings and pricing power across platforms.
👉 Strategy: Accumulate
👉 Risk: Demand normalization
+) Eli Lilly — Obesity Drug Demand Driving Growth (Overweight)
Strong demand for weight-loss and diabetes treatments continued to support revenue expansion and premium valuation.
👉 Strategy: Overweight
👉 Risk: Regulatory / pricing risk
+) NextEra Energy — Rate Sensitivity vs Structural Growth (Accumulate)
Renewable energy pipeline remained robust, though interest rate sensitivity continued to cap upside.
👉 Strategy: Accumulate
👉 Risk: Higher rates
+) Block — Consumer Spending Mixed Signals (Neutral)
Payments and fintech activity reflected stable but not accelerating consumer trends.
👉 Strategy: Neutral
👉 Risk: Spending slowdown
General
PART I — Macro & Policy (Rates, Inflation, Liquidity)
1) Inflation plateau holds, but services pressure remains key risk
Recent signals suggest inflation is stabilizing, but services and wage components remain sticky, preventing a clean disinflation trend.
Market Impact:
- Core inflation remains elevated
- Disinflation path remains slow
- Inflation expectations stay above target
2) Central banks reinforce “no rush to cut” stance
Policymakers continue to emphasize data dependency and patience, with no indication of imminent easing.
Market Impact:
- Rate cuts priced later in the year
- Front-end yields remain supported
- Policy continues to cap risk-on sentiment
3) Financial conditions — restrictive but no longer tightening
Markets are operating in a stable restrictive environment, with no fresh tightening impulse.
Market Impact:
- Liquidity remains constrained
- Credit markets stable but selective
- Risk appetite remains controlled
PART II — Markets (Cross-Asset Positioning)
1) Oil — stable with embedded geopolitical premium
Crude remains range-bound at elevated levels, reflecting persistent supply risk despite improving flows.
Market Impact:
- Energy sector remains supported
- Oil downside limited
- Volatility continues to ease
2) Equities — consolidation continues with defensive tilt
Markets remain stable, but leadership remains narrow and skewed toward defensives.
Market Impact:
- Defensive sectors outperform
- Cyclicals remain subdued
- Earnings outlook remains cautious
3) Rates & FX — elevated equilibrium persists
Yields and USD remain high but stable, reflecting balanced macro expectations.
Market Impact:
- Duration remains unattractive
- USD strength persists
- EM assets stable but sensitive
4) Commodities — structural support intact
Commodity markets remain supported by tight supply conditions and inflation hedging demand.
Market Impact:
- Gold remains supported
- Industrial metals stable
- Commodity complex firm
PART III — Geopolitics, Macro Spillovers & Strategic Implications (Hybrid Multi-Driver)
1) Geopolitics — “managed tension” becomes dominant narrative
Markets are increasingly pricing a contained but unresolved geopolitical environment, with reduced escalation risk.
Market Impact:
- Oil risk premium stabilizes
- Volatility declines from peak
- Markets remain headline-sensitive
2) Trade & Energy Flows — gradual normalization continues
Shipping flows are improving, but costs and inefficiencies remain elevated, preventing full normalization.
Market Impact:
- Freight & insurance costs remain high
- Supply chains remain suboptimal
- Energy markets retain structural support
3) Policy Interaction — inflation constraints remain binding
Energy-driven inflation continues to limit central bank flexibility, even as conditions stabilize.
Market Impact:
- Rate cuts delayed
- Yields remain supported
- Equity upside capped
4) Global Growth — divergence persists across regions
- S.: resilient but moderating
- Europe: weak but stabilizing
- China: supported but uneven
Market Impact:
- Mixed global demand outlook
- Industrial sectors remain fragile
- Commodities supported but not surging
Strategic Scenarios (07.04 positioning lens)
Base Case:
- Stable geopolitical backdrop
- Oil ~$90–100
- Markets range-bound with defensive bias
Bull Case:
- Diplomatic progress + improved flows
- Oil declines
- Risk assets strengthen
Bear Case:
- Renewed disruption
- Oil spikes (> $110)
- Broad risk-off returns
Bottom Line (Institutional Takeaway)
Markets remain in a “stable but constrained” macro regime:
- Inflation persistent but not accelerating
- Policy restrictive but stable
- Energy markets elevated but stable
- Risk assets consolidating
➡️ Positioning bias: neutral-to-defensive, maintain inflation hedges, selective risk exposure
Upcoming News
Markets move into Wednesday with a policy- and inflation-expectation focus, as investors transition from labour-market signals toward forward guidance and policy interpretation. Overall market sense is cautiously neutral with a data-dependent bias, as FX and rates respond primarily to central bank communication and inflation expectations rather than hard macro surprises. Volatility is expected to pick up modestly around U.S. releases, though conviction remains selective ahead of heavier inflation data later in the week.
In the United States, attention centers on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which provide deeper insight into policymakers’ thinking following the latest rate decision. Markets will scrutinize discussions around inflation persistence, labour-market conditions, and the timing of potential easing. A more cautious or hawkish tone could support yields and the USD, while evidence of growing confidence in disinflation could weigh on the dollar and support risk assets. Secondary attention also falls on wholesale inventories, offering incremental signals on demand and supply-chain dynamics.
Across Europe, the macro calendar is relatively light, leaving EUR trading primarily as a function of U.S. yield differentials and global risk sentiment. In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s consumer confidence and China’s policy signals continue to shape regional sentiment, though FX movements remain largely tied to global rate expectations. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that macro interpretation and positioning adjustments dominate the session.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 12:00 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Consumer Confidence | Household sentiment; JPY sensitivity |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Wholesale Inventories (m/m) | Demand and inventory dynamics |
| 01:00 (Apr 9) | 🔴 Red News | United States | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Policy outlook; USD & rates direction |
| All day | 🟡 Earnings | — | No major earnings scheduled | (Yahoo Finance) |
| All day | 🟡 IPO Pricings | — | No IPO pricing scheduled | (Yahoo Finance) |
| All day | 🟡 Stock Splits | — | No stock splits scheduled | (Yahoo Finance) |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Policy interpretation / yield volatility | May influence cross-asset moves |
Snapshot (07.4.2026)
🛢 Oil | Sharp Correction After Spike
- WTI Crude 97.61 (-11.53%)
- Brent Crude 97.31 (-9.71%)
Oil prices plunged sharply after the previous surge, indicating a major unwind of geopolitical risk premium and aggressive profit-taking.
🔻 USD Weakens | DXY 99.00 (-0.51%)
The U.S. Dollar declined notably, falling back below 100 as risk sentiment improved across markets.
🔄 G7 FX | Strong Risk-On Move
- EUR/USD 1.1675 (+0.70%)
- GBP/USD 1.3389 (+0.76%)
- AUD/USD 0.7059 (+1.18%)
- NZD/USD 0.5797 (+1.12%)
- USD/JPY 158.65 (-0.59%)
Risk currencies rallied strongly against the USD, signaling a clear shift toward risk-on sentiment.
🪙 Crypto | Altcoins Lead Rally
- BTC 71,914 (-0.04%)
- ETH 2,240 (+0.02%)
- SOL 85.61 (+7.43%)
Crypto markets were mixed, but strong gains in altcoins—especially Solana—highlight renewed speculative appetite.
🥇 Metals | Strong Rebound with Risk Rotation
- Gold 4,822 (+2.57%)
- Silver 76.19 (+4.29%)
- Copper 5.72 (+1.66%)
Metals surged broadly, driven by weaker USD and renewed demand for both hedging and growth-linked commodities.
📊 Equities | Strong Risk-On Rally, Volatility Drops
- S&P 500 6,763.13 (+1.93%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,898.07 (+3.17%)
- Dow Jones 47,475.40 (+1.71%)
- Nasdaq 24,202.37 (+0.04%)
- VIX 22.47 (-8.36%)
Equities rallied strongly across regions, supported by falling oil prices and easing volatility—marking a clear rebound in global risk sentiment.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen.
