It looks like the NFP did not move an inch to charts
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war, as it will update per second; any volatility from the next morning will get the charts to the highest levels. Stay highly cautious.
Data:
🔵 Market Theme
Relief rally extended into month-end close, but markets remain trapped between de-escalation hopes and a still-unresolved stagflation setup.
Equities rebounded sharply, yields eased modestly, and oil volatility remained elevated—confirming that the regime is less panic, not yet normalized.
[🟦 Global Rates | Bond rally emerges, but still within a stressed regime]
- S. Treasuries:
- 2Y: ~3.80–3.85%
- 5Y: ~3.95%
- 10Y: ~4.28–4.32%
- 30Y: ~4.85–4.88%
Yields eased from recent highs as growth concerns and quarter-end flows supported duration.
- United Kingdom:
- 10Y gilt: ~4.80–4.85%
Remains near multi-year highs despite pullback; UK still screens as structurally fragile.
- 10Y gilt: ~4.80–4.85%
- Euro Area:
- Germany 10Y: ~3.00%
- France 10Y: ~3.80%
- Italy 10Y: ~3.65%
ECB path still repriced toward tightening amid renewed inflation pressure.
- Asia / Commodity-linked:
- Japan 10Y: ~2.30–2.35%
- Australia 10Y: ~4.90–5.00%
- Canada 10Y: ~3.45–3.50%
- China 10Y: ~1.80–1.82%
China continues to outperform as the least inflation-sensitive major bond market.
👉 Trading implication:
Bond markets are stabilizing tactically, but structurally remain under pressure unless oil decisively normalizes. Duration is no longer a pure short, but not yet a clean long.
[🟩 U.S. Equities | Follow-through strength after strongest rally in months]
- Nasdaq Composite: ~21,500 (+0.5–1.0%)
- S&P 500 (US500): ~6,520 (+0.4–0.8%)
- Dow Jones: ~46,300 (+0.2–0.5%)
Momentum from the 31.3 rally carried forward, led by mega-cap tech and growth names.
👉 Trading implication:
Still a relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal. Equity upside remains conditional on oil stabilization and rate moderation.
[🟩 Europe Equities | Rebound continues but remains fragile]
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,650 (+0.3–0.6%)
- DAX (GER40): ~22,900 (+0.4–0.7%)
- CAC 40: ~7,850 (+0.3–0.5%)
Europe tracked the global rebound but remains the most structurally vulnerable region.
👉 Trading implication:
Europe = high beta to oil + inflation → rallies are tactical, not structural.
[🟨 Japan / Asia | Stabilization after heavy March drawdown]
- Nikkei 225: ~52,000 (+0.2–0.5%)
- Asia broadly stabilized after sharp declines, supported by improved global sentiment.
- FX backdrop:
USD/JPY remained near ~160, keeping intervention risk elevated.
👉 Trading implication:
Asia remains highly sensitive to FX + oil → stability is fragile and dependent on external conditions.
[🟥 Macro “Red News” | Data confirms stagflation tension remains unresolved]
- S. labor signals (JOLTS / hiring):
- Job openings and hiring both declined to post-pandemic lows
→ Early signs of labor market cooling
- Job openings and hiring both declined to post-pandemic lows
- S. inflation expectations:
- 1-year expectations rose toward ~5%+ region
→ Inflation psychology remains elevated
- 1-year expectations rose toward ~5%+ region
- Eurozone inflation (flash):
- Headline ~2.5% y/y, above ECB target
- Energy-led acceleration persists
- Germany labor market:
- Unemployment steady (~6.3%) but hiring momentum weak
👉 Trading implication:
The macro mix = slowing labor + rising inflation expectations → classic stagflation tension, keeping central banks cautious.
[🟧 High-Impact Headlines | What moved markets]
- De-escalation narrative continues
→ Ceasefire speculation helped extend risk rally - Oil volatility remains high (not resolved)
→ Still the primary macro driver - Global bond markets stabilize after worst month in years
→ Suggests temporary equilibrium, not full recovery - ECB repricing remains hawkish
→ Markets still pricing multiple hikes into 2026 - USD remains structurally supported
→ Yield + safe-haven dynamics intact - Japan intervention risk rising
→ FX becoming a policy trigger - Central banks shift to “wait-and-see” mode
→ Markets now doing tightening for them
⚡ Cross-Asset Signal Map
| Asset | Signal | Bias |
| USD | Yield + macro resilience | Bullish |
| Oil | Volatile but elevated | Structurally bullish |
| Rates | Tactical rally, structural pressure | Neutral / cautious |
| U.S. Equities | Relief rally | Tactical bullish |
| Europe | Weak macro + inflation | Bearish |
| Japan / Asia | FX + oil sensitive | Fragile |
💡 One-Line Trade Takeaway
01.4 extends the relief rally, but the premium-desk stance remains unchanged: stay tactically long equities, structurally long USD and energy, and cautious on duration until oil and inflation clearly roll over.
Companies.
+) PVH Corp. — Guidance Reset Signals Consumer Softness (Underweight / Sell rallies)
PVH dropped after cutting outlook, highlighting weakening wholesale demand and cautious retail orders, reinforcing broader concerns about discretionary spending slowdown.
👉 Strategy: Sell into strength
👉 Risk: Faster demand recovery
+) BlackRock — Inflows Resilience Despite Volatility (Accumulate)
BlackRock benefited from continued ETF inflows, signaling that institutional allocation to equities remains intact despite macro uncertainty.
👉 Strategy: Accumulate
👉 Risk: Market drawdown
+) Johnson & Johnson — Defensive Rotation Gains Traction (Buy dips)
Healthcare outperformed as investors rotated into defensive sectors, with stable earnings visibility supporting demand.
👉 Strategy: Buy on dips
👉 Risk: Risk-on rotation
+) Western Digital — Storage Cycle Recovery Builds (Tactical Long)
Western Digital gained as NAND pricing showed early signs of stabilization, supporting a cyclical recovery narrative in storage markets.
👉 Strategy: Follow momentum
👉 Risk: Pricing volatility
+) Southwest Airlines — Cost Pressure Weighs on Outlook (Underweight)
Shares declined as rising operating costs and capacity adjustments pressured margins, reflecting broader airline sector challenges.
👉 Strategy: Sell rallies
👉 Risk: Demand resilience
+) Marathon Petroleum — Refining Margins Support Upside (Buy dips)
Energy stocks remained supported by stable crude and resilient refining margins, reinforcing cash flow strength in downstream players.
👉 Strategy: Buy on dips
👉 Risk: Crack spread compression
+) Datadog — AI Observability Theme Emerging (Tactical Long)
Datadog gained traction as AI workloads increased demand for monitoring and observability solutions, expanding its growth narrative.
👉 Strategy: Momentum trade
👉 Risk: Valuation
| Category | Name | Trend | Key Driver |
| Sector | Healthcare | Strong | Defensive flows |
| Energy | Stable | Refining margins | |
| Consumer | Weak | Demand slowdown | |
| Gainer — Big Cap | Johnson & Johnson | ↑ | Defensive rotation |
| BlackRock | ↑ | ETF inflows | |
| Gainer — SMID Cap | Western Digital | ↑ | Cycle recovery |
| Datadog | ↑ | AI observability | |
| Loser — Big Cap | PVH Corp. | ↓ | Weak guidance |
| Southwest Airlines | ↓ | Cost pressure | |
| Loser — SMID Cap | Rivian | ↓ | EV competition |
| UiPath | ↓ | Growth concerns | |
| ETF | SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | → | Mixed sentiment |
| Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) | → | Tech consolidation | |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) | ↑ | Oil support |
General
PART I — Macro & Policy (Rates, Inflation, Liquidity)
1) Inflation risk stabilizes but remains structurally elevated
Following the late-March energy shock, oil prices have stabilized rather than reversed, keeping inflation expectations elevated. The key shift is from “acceleration” → “persistent plateau.”
Market Impact:
- Disinflation path delayed, not derailed
- Headline CPI remains vulnerable to energy pass-through
- Inflation expectations stay above central bank comfort zone
2) Central banks remain firmly data-dependent (no pivot)
Policymakers continue to emphasize patience, as temporary easing in oil prices is insufficient to justify rate cuts. The bias remains toward avoiding premature easing.
Market Impact:
- Rate-cut expectations pushed further out
- Front-end yields remain supported
- Policy acts as ceiling for risk-on
3) Financial conditions — tight but no longer tightening aggressively
After the March repricing, financial conditions are stabilizing at restrictive levels, rather than tightening further.
Market Impact:
- Liquidity remains constrained
- Credit markets stable but selective
- Macro backdrop neutral-to-negative for risk assets
PART II — Markets (Cross-Asset Positioning)
1) Oil consolidates, but risk premium remains embedded
Crude is no longer spiking but remains elevated, reflecting ongoing supply uncertainty and incomplete normalization in flows.
Market Impact:
- Energy sector remains supported
- Oil downside limited without full geopolitical resolution
- Volatility declines modestly
2) Equities — from correction to fragile stabilization
Global equities are stabilizing after recent drawdowns, but upside remains limited due to rates + cost pressures + policy uncertainty.
Market Impact:
- Defensive leadership persists
- Cyclicals stabilize but lack conviction
- Earnings expectations remain under pressure
3) Rates & FX — consolidation phase
Yields and USD are holding elevated levels without further breakout, reflecting balanced positioning.
Market Impact:
- USD stays firm but not strengthening aggressively
- Bond volatility declines
- EM assets stabilize but remain fragile
4) Commodities — broad support continues
Commodity complex remains supported by supply risks and inflation hedging demand, though price moves are less extreme.
Market Impact:
- Gold remains supported
- Industrial metals stable
- Commodities retain structural bid
PART III — Geopolitics, Macro Spillovers & Strategic Implications (Hybrid Multi-Driver)
1) Geopolitics — Conflict repriced into “prolonged standoff”
Markets are increasingly pricing a no escalation / no resolution scenario, rather than imminent conflict expansion.
Market Impact:
- Oil risk premium stabilizes
- Volatility declines from peak levels
- Tail risks remain embedded
2) Energy & Trade Flows — Partial normalization, not full recovery
Shipping through key routes continues to improve gradually, but logistics remain constrained and costly.
Market Impact:
- Freight & insurance costs stay elevated
- Supply chain inefficiencies persist
- Energy markets retain structural support
3) Policy Interaction — Energy → Inflation → Fed constraint
Even with oil stabilizing, the prior shock continues to feed into policy caution, limiting central bank flexibility.
Market Impact:
- Rate cuts delayed
- Yields remain elevated
- Equity upside capped
4) Global Growth — Divergence remains key theme
- S.: resilient but moderating
- Europe: weak but stabilizing
- China: supported but uneven
Market Impact:
- Global demand outlook mixed
- Industrial sectors remain fragile
- Commodities supported but not surging
Strategic Scenarios (01.04 positioning lens)
Base Case:
- Prolonged standoff, gradual normalization
- Oil ~$90–100
- Markets stabilize with defensive bias
Bull Case:
- Diplomatic progress improves visibility
- Oil breaks lower
- Risk assets gain broader support
Bear Case:
- Renewed escalation or supply disruption
- Oil spikes again (> $110)
- Broad risk-off returns
Bottom Line (Institutional Takeaway)
Markets are now in a “stable but constrained” regime:
- Inflation elevated but not worsening
- Policy restrictive but stable
- Energy markets tight but not escalating
- Risk assets shifting from decline → consolidation
➡️ Positioning bias: neutral-to-defensive, maintain inflation hedges, selective risk exposure, monitor geopolitical catalysts closely
Upcoming News
Markets move into Thursday with a pre-payrolls, data-sensitive bias, as investors refine positioning ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Overall market sense is cautiously balanced but tactically defensive, with FX and rates reacting primarily to labour-market signals and demand indicators. Volatility is expected to increase into U.S. data releases, though conviction remains moderate until payrolls provide clearer direction.
In the United States, attention centers on Initial Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance, both offering key insights into labour-market stability and external demand conditions. Claims remain the most timely indicator ahead of NFP; a stable print would reinforce confidence in gradual labour-market normalization, while a surprise increase could accelerate expectations for Fed easing later in 2026 and weigh on the USD. Trade data will also be monitored for its implications on growth momentum and inventory dynamics, though its market impact is typically secondary.
Across Europe, the calendar remains relatively light, leaving EUR trading primarily as a function of U.S. yield differentials and global risk sentiment. In the Asia–Pacific region, Australia’s trade data and Japan’s household indicators provide incremental clarity on regional demand, though JPY and AUD remain closely tied to global rates and commodity flows. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that macro signals and positioning adjustments dominate market behavior ahead of payrolls.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 08:30 | 🔴 Red News | Australia | Trade Balance | External demand; AUD sensitivity |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | Real-time labour stress indicator |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Trade Balance | External demand and GDP implications |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Pre-NFP positioning / policy headlines | May amplify FX and rates volatility |
Snapshot (02.4.2026)
🛢 Oil | Pullback After Rally
- WTI Crude 98.39 (-0.52%)
- Brent Crude 102.92 (-0.66%)
Oil prices corrected lower after the strong rally, suggesting short-term profit-taking while still holding at relatively elevated levels.
🟡 USD Stable | DXY 99.53 (-0.02%)
The U.S. Dollar remained broadly stable, hovering just below the 100 level as markets paused after recent volatility.
🔄 G7 FX | Sideways with Mild USD Weakness
- EUR/USD 1.1594 (+0.04%)
- GBP/USD 1.3311 (+0.09%)
- USD/JPY 158.67 (-0.06%)
- AUD/USD 0.6927 (-0.05%)
FX markets traded sideways with a slight bias against the USD, though overall moves were limited.
🪙 Crypto | Mixed Performance
- BTC 68,104 (flat)
- ETH 2,140 (+0.05%)
- SOL 81.16 (-2.17%)
Crypto markets were mixed, with Ethereum holding steady while Solana saw a notable pullback.
🥇 Metals | Continued Uptrend
- Gold 4,784 (+0.55%)
- Silver 75.45 (+0.55%)
Precious metals extended gains, supported by steady demand for hedging amid uncertain macro conditions.
📊 Equities | Consolidation After Rebound
- S&P 500 6,577.90 (-0.08%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,729.96 (-0.11%)
- Dow Jones 46,588.18 (-0.07%)
- Nasdaq 24,019.99 (+1.18%)
- VIX 24.32 (flat)
Equities showed mixed performance, with Nasdaq continuing to outperform while broader indices consolidated and volatility remained stable.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen.
