Hormuz is closing again, Rumor of failed negotiation covering fears but we are sick to it.
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war, as it will update per second; any volatility from the next morning will get the charts to the highest levels. Stay highly cautious.
Data:
Main Theme: “Hormuz Tolls & Industrial Resilience” – Markets Dip as Conflict Friction Rises.
The trading session on Thursday was defined by a shift from “Peace Pivot” optimism back to geopolitical realism. While U.S. industrial giants (Union Pacific, Texas Instruments) posted blockbuster results, the broader indices retreated as the Strait of Hormuz conflict entered a new, more bureaucratic phase: Iran officially began collecting “tolls” for passage, while seizing two additional international vessels to reinforce its control.
🟦 Global Rates | Yields Climb for Fourth Straight Day
The bond market saw continued selling pressure as “Stagflationary” signals from the Eurozone and strong U.S. industrial demand pushed yields to their highest levels since early April.
- US 10Y Yield: Finished at 323% (Up for four consecutive sessions; highest since April 7).
- US 2Y Yield: Ended at 77%.
- US 30Y Yield: Ended at 93%.
- Analysis: Yields are now within striking distance of the 4.44% YTD high as the “Debt Reckoning” narrative persists alongside energy supply anxiety.
🟥 U.S. Equities | The Industrial-Tech Split
Wall Street took a step back from record highs as weakness in the software sector (ServiceNow) and profit-taking in tech offset massive gains in the industrial core.
- S&P 500 (US500): -0.42% (-30.13 pts) to close at 7,108.04.
- Nasdaq Composite: -0.89% (-219.07 pts) to close at 24,438.50.
- Dow Jones Industrials: -0.36% (-179.71 pts) to close at 49,310.31.
- Key Gainers: United Rentals (URI) surged +23% and Union Pacific (UNP) jumped +9% on record earnings, signaling high domestic industrial demand.
- Key Losers: ServiceNow (NOW) plunged -18% on weak guidance, dragging the broader software sector lower.
🟧 Commodities & FX | Oil Surges on “Toll” Enforcement
Energy markets reacted sharply to the institutionalization of the Hormuz blockade, while gold faced selling pressure as capital rotated into the USD.
- WTI Crude Oil: Jumped $1.20 (+1.3%) to settle at $94.16/bbl.
- Brent Crude: Surged to $103.17/bbl, marking its first close above $100 in two weeks.
- Gold (XAU): Slipped to $4,720.50/oz (Futures) / ~$4,708/oz (Spot). The strong USD rebound outweighed safe-haven demand.
- USD Index (DXY): Rose to 50, benefiting from the “Safe Haven” bid as Middle East tensions flared.
🟥 Macro “Red News” & Geopolitics
- Hormuz Tolls: Tehran announced it has received its first revenue from tolls imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, deposited directly into the Central Bank.
- Naval Escalation: Iran seized two vessels in the waterway to reinforce its control. President Trump maintained the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian trade in response.
- Flash PMIs: * US: Manufacturing PMI beat at 5 (Strong), but Services showed signs of weakening.
- Eurozone: Manufacturing surprised at 2, but Services plunged into contraction at 47.4, signaling a deepening “headache for policymakers.”
- Germany: Reported weakness across all three sectors (Manufacturing, Services, Composite).
- Initial Jobless Claims: Came in slightly higher than expected at 214K, suggesting a minor cooling in the labor market.
Companies
Theme: “The Industrial Renaissance vs. The Cloud Correction” — The Silicon-Physical Divide Widens.
The corporate narrative on Thursday was a stark split between the “Physical Fortress” of U.S. industry and the “Cloud Anxiety” of the software sector. While companies building and moving the real world saw historic surges, the software giants were penalized for any proximity to the Middle East conflict or AI-driven seat disruption.
🏗️ Industrial Champions: United Rentals & Union Pacific
- United Rentals (URI) [🚀 +23.0%]:
- The Numbers: Delivered a massive “Beat and Raise.” Revenue hit $3.99 billion (surpassing $3.87B estimates), while Adj. EPS reached $9.71 (crushing the $8.95 forecast).
- The Narrative: URI is being treated as the ultimate “Blockade-Proof” infrastructure play. With a fleet now topping 1 million units, the company is the primary beneficiary of the U.S. domestic reshoring boom. Specialty rentals—the highest-margin segment—grew 8%, and management raised the full-year 2026 revenue guidance floor to $16.9 billion.
- Union Pacific (UNP) [📈 +9.0%]:
- The Numbers: Reported record Q1 net income of $1.7 billion (Adj. EPS of $2.93).
- The Narrative: CEO Jim Vena’s focus on “Railroad Productivity” is paying off. UNP achieved its best-ever quarter for terminal dwell and locomotive productivity. As global shipping lanes (Hormuz) face “toll” friction, the domestic “Industrial Spine” of the U.S. rail system is capturing higher-value freight.
💻 The Silicon Pivot: Intel’s Post-Market Breakthrough
- Intel (INTC) [🔥 Post-Market Surge]:
- The Result: A watershed moment for the “IDM 2.0” strategy. Revenue came in at $13.6 billion ($1.4B above the guidance midpoint), with Adj. EPS at $0.29—shattering the “breakeven” expectations.
- The Catalyst: The Intel 18A node execution is officially ahead of schedule. AI-driven segments now constitute 60% of revenue and grew 40% year-over-year. This “Silicon Anchor” is providing the market with the hardware confidence needed to offset software jitters.
📉 The Software Sinkhole: ServiceNow’s Guidance Shock
- ServiceNow (NOW) [🩸 -18.51%]:
- The Numbers: While Revenue ($3.77B) and EPS ($0.97) technically met estimates, the forward-looking guidance was a disaster for investor sentiment.
- The “Hormuz Impact”: Management admitted that subscription growth faced a 75-basis-point headwind from “deal slippage” in the Middle East. Large on-premise contracts are being shelved as regional conflict escalates.
- The Insight: Beyond the conflict, the market is pricing in a structural “AI Seat Disruption.” Investors are terrified that automated AI agents will eventually reduce the need for the seat-based licensing models that define SaaS giants.
📊 Corporate Scoreboard (April 23, 2026)
| Company | Ticker | EPS (Actual) | EPS (Consensus) | Final Move (%) |
| United Rentals | URI | $9.71 | $8.95 | +23.00% |
| Intel | INTC | $0.29 | $0.01 | +12.1% (AH) |
| Union Pacific | UNP | $2.93 | $2.70 | +9.02% |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $0.97 | $0.97 | -18.51% |
| Honeywell | HON | $2.41 | $2.32 | +1.85% |
General
Connecting the Dots: The “Hormuz Toll Economy” and the Software-Silicon Split.
The market action on Thursday, April 23rd, 2024, signaled a paradigm shift in the Middle East conflict. We have moved from a phase of “Kinetic Disruption” into the “Institutionalization of the Blockade.” The official collection of passage tolls by Tehran has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into a “Sovereign Tax Zone,” forcing a radical revaluation of global trade costs.
- The “Hormuz Toll” as a Geopolitical Weapon
The confirmation from Iran’s Parliament that the first toll revenues have been deposited into the Central Bank marks a watershed moment.
- The New Reality: Iran is no longer just “blocking” the strait; it is “monetizing” it. By varying fees based on “cargo risk” and volume, Tehran is effectively picking winners and losers in global trade.
- The Naval Response: While the U.S. Navy remains in a defensive “Ceasefire Mode,” the CENTCOM blockade of Iranian ports (31 vessels turned around) has failed to stop the toll collection. This suggests that the “Toll Economy” is being enforced via land-based missile threats and commandos rather than traditional naval superiority.
- The “Silicon Shield” vs. The “Software Sinkhole”
A profound divergence emerged today within the technology sector, separating hardware-based “Fortresses” from seat-based “Vulnerabilities.”
- The Hardware Buffer: Intel’s 12% post-market surge (driven by 18A node progress) and Tesla’s backlog prove that investors are seeking “Sovereign Hardware”—the physical chips and machines that run the world.
- The SaaS Vulnerability: Conversely, ServiceNow (NOW) plunged 14% as it admitted that 75 basis points of its growth was erased by Middle East “deal slippage.” This proves that in a world of $94 oil and active war, enterprise software is a “discretionary” expense that can be delayed, unlike the chips (Intel) and the industrial infrastructure (United Rentals) needed to rebuild.
- The 4.323% Yield Floor: The “Debt Reckoning” Anchor
The US 10Y Yield climbing to 4.323%—its highest since early April—is the market’s response to the IMF/G7 Spring Meetings.
- Fiscal Exhaustion: G7 finance ministers in Washington reportedly shifted their focus from “War Relief” to “Fiscal Guardrails.” The IMF’s warning of a 100% Debt-to-GDP ratio by 2029 has created a permanent floor under interest rates.
- The “Stagflation” Signal: With the German PMI at 42.8 (recession) and US Oil at $94 (inflation), the bond market is now pricing in “Sticky Inflation” combined with “Stagnant Growth.” This is the “Stagflation Trap” that is capping the S&P 500’s record-high ambitions.
📊 Macro Sentiment Summary (April 23, 2024)
| Narrative | Driver | Market Sentiment |
| Geopolitics | First Hormuz Tolls Collected | 🟥 High Friction / Bearish |
| Fiscal Health | G7 “Debt Guardrails” | 🟥 Structural Anxiety |
| Industrial | United Rentals +23% Gain | 🟩 Hyper-Bullish (Reshoring) |
| Technology | Intel 18A Node Success | 🟩 Bullish (Hardware Floor) |
Upcoming News
The “Three-Week Buffer” and the Japan Inflation Pivot.
The final trading day of the week, Friday, April 24th, 2026, opens under a radically different geopolitical sky. The “Midnight Deadline” that haunted the markets yesterday has been replaced by a significant diplomatic breakthrough, providing a much-needed liquidity bridge. However, as the “War Premium” recedes, the focus shifts to the “Inflation Reality” in Asia and the final fiscal mandates from the G7.
🔴 High-Impact “Red News” (Friday, April 24th, 2026)
Note: Times are in AEST (Australian Eastern Standard Time).
| Date | Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
| Fri Apr 24 | 09:30 | JPY | National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.7% | 1.6% | 🔴 High |
| Fri Apr 24 | 15:00 | GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | 0.0% | 🟠 Med |
| Fri Apr 24 | 17:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 88.9 | 87.8 | 🟠 Med |
| Fri Apr 24 | 22:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) | 1.3% | 1.4% | 🔴 High |
| Fri Apr 24 | 00:00 (Sat) | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 77.9 | 77.9 | 🔴 High |
| Fri Apr 24 | All Day | ALL | G7 Finance Track – Final Report | N/A | N/A | 🔴 High |
- The Geopolitical Breakthrough: The “Three-Week Buffer”
- The Announcement: Late Thursday night, President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a three-week extension of the ceasefire. This is a massive expansion from the previous 10-day window.
- The Meeting: The deal was finalized in the Oval Office with the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors. Trump stated the U.S. will assist Lebanon in “protecting itself from Hezbollah,” signaling a more active U.S. role in regional stabilization.
- Market Impact: This “Three-Week Buffer” effectively removes the immediate “Resumption of Hostilities” risk for the rest of April, likely causing a sharp contraction in the “War Premium” for Brent and WTI oil.
- Japan’s Inflation Pivot (09:30 AEST)
- The Context: National inflation for March is released today. While Tokyo’s data (1.4%) was soft, the national core reading is expected to tick up to 7%.
- The BOJ Watch: Sources suggest the Bank of Japan is preparing to “tweak” its guidance language. With energy prices rising due to the Hormuz tolls, the BOJ is signaling its readiness to “act flexibly” if war-related inflation risks persist.
- G7 Final Communiqué: “Critical Minerals & Imbalances”
- The Report: The G7 Finance Track meetings in Washington have concluded with a focus on “Economic Resilience.”
- Key Mandates:
- Critical Minerals: A new G7-wide framework to secure supply chains for minerals essential for AI and the “Silicon Economy.”
- Global Imbalances: A directive to address excess production capacity and “distorting practices” that threaten the level playing field.
- The “Debt Guardrails”: Implementation of a new monitoring system for sovereign debt sustainability in the wake of the Middle East crisis.
- Earnings: Automation & Recycling Tech
- MISUMI Group (MSUXF): The Japanese factory automation giant reports today. Investors are looking for proof that the “Reshoring” trend in the U.S. and Japan is boosting order books for FA (Factory Automation) components.
- Tomra Systems (TMRAF): A key player in recycling technology. Analysts are watching for any margin compression caused by the surge in logistics costs during the Hormuz blockade.
Snapshot (23.4.2026)
The “Industrial Renaissance” vs. The “Hormuz Toll” Reality.
This Snapshot captures a day of stark bifurcation. While the U.S. domestic “Industrial Core” is booming with record productivity and reshoring demand, the broader market is grappling with the institutionalization of the Middle East conflict through the new “Hormuz Tolls.”
🏛️ The Bottom Line
Thursday was the day of the “Great Divergence.” We saw a violent split between the “Physical Fortress” (United Rentals +23%, Union Pacific +9%) and the “Software Vulnerables” (ServiceNow -18.5%). The narrative has shifted from mere “Disruption” to “Monetization,” as Tehran’s official toll collection on the Strait of Hormuz acted as a global energy tax. Despite Intel’s late-session 12% surge on 18A node progress, the S&P 500 fell -0.42% as the US 10Y Yield (4.323%) exerted significant gravity on tech valuations.
📉 Key Technical Levels for the Friday Open (Apr 24)
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Current Bias |
| S&P 500 | 7,080 | 7,150 | Neutral/Bearish (Short-term) |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.28% | 4.35% | Strongly Bullish (Debt Risk) |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,200 | 24,650 | Corrective (Software Drag) |
| Gold (XAU) | $4,700 | $4,780 | Bearish (Rotation to USD) |
| WTI Oil | $92.50 | $96.00 | Bullish (Toll Inflation) |
📊 Market Sentiment & Bias
- Equities (U.S.): 🟨 “Real-world” industrials are in a bull market; “Seat-based” software is in a correction.
- Foreign Exchange (USD): 🟢 The DXY (98.50) is the primary beneficiary of “Stagflation” fears in Europe.
- Fixed Income: 🔴 The 4.323% yield level suggests the market is pricing in a “Higher-for-Longer” energy tax.
- Commodities: 🟢 Bullish (Energy). The $100+ Brent close is the new psychological floor.
💡 Top Trade Takeaway: “The Physical vs. Digital Swap”
Focus: Long Industrial Infrastructure (URI/UNP) vs. Short SaaS (NOW/CRM).
Logic: The “Hormuz Toll” era favors companies that move physical goods or provide the tools for reshoring. United Rentals‘ record EPS ($9.71) proves that the U.S. construction boom is the strongest hedge against global war. Conversely, ServiceNow’s guidance cut shows that software seats are “discretionary” and vulnerable to regional deal slippage.
Watch: Intel’s Friday Open. If INTC holds its 12% after-hours gain, it will provide the “Silicon Floor” needed to prevent a deeper Nasdaq slide.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen.
