Nice April ahead… Deadline has come. ADP Non-farm today
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war, as it will update per second; any volatility from the next morning will get the charts to the highest levels. Stay highly cautious.
Data:
🔵 Market Theme
Month-end de-escalation hopes triggered a sharp cross-asset rebound, but the deeper regime did not change: March still ended as a stagflation month defined by oil shock, tighter financial conditions, and weaker labor momentum. Reuters described Tuesday’s move as a rebound on hopes for an Iran off-ramp after “the biggest one-month increase in global oil prices in history,” even as March still finished as a difficult month for both stocks and bonds.
[🟦 Global Rates | Bond markets bounced, but yields still closed March at stressed levels]
- United States: the 10Y Treasury eased to 4.32%, with the 2Y at 3.82%, 5Y at 3.95%, and 30Y at 4.88% on TradingEconomics’ 31 March close snapshot. Reuters said bond yields “dropped slightly” on the day, but also warned the 10Y had neared 4.5% and that the Treasury market’s next test is whether war costs push the fiscal deficit above 8% of GDP in 2026–27.
- United Kingdom / Europe: the UK 10Y gilt eased to around 4.85% on 31 March, but remained close to post-2008 stress levels after March’s oil shock; Reuters said euro-zone inflation surged above target and markets were now pricing three ECB hikes in 2026, possibly beginning in April or June.
- Australia / Canada / Japan / China: Reuters said the RBA’s March minutes showed a 5–4 split behind the decision to hike to 1%, with markets pricing a 60% chance of another hike in May and about 65 bps of tightening this year. Reuters also noted Canada’s 2Y yield fell to 2.826% as the loonie rebounded slightly, while Japan’s March sell-off left government bond yields at levels not seen since 1999.
👉 Trading implication:
The bounce in bonds was relief, not regime change. The cleaner read is still that the market has shifted from “cuts are coming” to “central banks can wait because markets have already tightened for them.”
[🟩 U.S. Equities | Best day since May, but still a damaged quarter-end tape]
- Dow Jones: 46,341.51 (+2.5%)
- S&P 500 (US500): 6,528.52 (+2.9%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 21,590.63 (+3.8%)
AP said this was the strongest day since last spring, driven by hope for a possible end to the Iran war and the accompanying drop in oil. Reuters said tech leaders such as Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta led the rebound, but quarter-end performance still remained negative.
👉 Trading implication:
This looked like a violent relief rally, not a clean restart of the prior bull trend. The rally was fueled by oil easing and ceasefire speculation, not by a structural improvement in inflation or growth data.
[🟩 Europe Equities | Europe bounced, but March still closed as its worst month in years]
- Reuters said the STOXX 600 fell 8% for March, its steepest monthly decline in nearly four years, ending an eight-month streak of gains. On the day, Europe participated in the relief move, and Yahoo Finance’s major-index snapshot showed the DAX at 22,957.08 (+1.41%), CAC 40 at 7,846.55 (+1.33%), and Euro Stoxx 50 at 5,649.33 (+1.22%).
👉 Trading implication:
Europe’s rebound was real, but the bigger message is that Europe remains the weakest developed-market macro block because it is still the most exposed to imported-energy inflation and weakening growth.
[🟨 Japan / Asia | Japan stabilized, but the month ended with a clear stress signal]
- Reuters’ Japan equity coverage showed the Nikkei 225 edged up just 0.02% to 51,896.91 on 31 March, leaving it down more than 11% for March, its biggest monthly decline since May 2010. Reuters also said Tokyo had, for the first time since the war began, called yen weakness “speculative,” as the currency hovered near the 160-per-dollar line and policymakers openly discussed intervention risk.
👉 Trading implication:
Japan remains a fragile imported-inflation / FX-stress trade, not a clean rebound story. Tactical stability does not change the fact that the yen, JGBs, and equities are all still vulnerable to another oil flare-up.
[🟥 Macro “Red News” | Labor and inflation data both reinforced the stagflation narrative]
- United States: Reuters reported consumer confidence rose slightly to 91.8 in March, but the details were weaker: job openings fell 358,000 to 6.882 million, and hiring fell 498,000 to 4.849 million, the lowest since the pandemic. Reuters also noted consumers now expect 2% inflation over the next year, the highest since May 2025.
- Euro area: Reuters said headline inflation accelerated to 2.5% y/y in March, above the ECB’s 2% target, with energy +4.9% y/y. Core inflation dipped to 3%, but the policy problem is that energy has restarted the inflation pipeline just as growth stays weak.
- Germany: Reuters reported the unemployment rate held at 3%, but the usual spring labor rebound was described as lacking strength, with manufacturing jobs down 178,000 y/y in January.
👉 Trading implication:
This is the classic bad macro mix: labor softening + inflation expectations rising. That is exactly why the market keeps oscillating between relief rallies and stagflation hedging.
[🟧 High-Impact Headlines | What actually moved traders on 31.3]
- De-escalation hopes sparked the rebound: Reuters said the rally was driven by unconfirmed reports that Iran’s president was willing to end the war and by suggestions the U.S. might stop military action even if Hormuz stays closed.
- Oil stayed volatile, not resolved: Reuters stressed that Brent and U.S. crude moved in opposite directions intraday, and that March still marked the biggest monthly oil surge in modern market history.
- Central banks got more time, not more clarity: Reuters explicitly said market tightening itself has bought central banks time to “wait and watch.”
- The euro-area inflation problem worsened: Reuters said March inflation above target has strengthened pricing for three ECB hikes in 2026.
- Japan moved closer to intervention rhetoric: Reuters said Tokyo called yen weakness “speculative” for the first time since the war began.
- Treasury stress is now also a fiscal story: Reuters warned that war costs plus tariff refunds could push the U.S. deficit above 8% of GDP, which matters for issuance and long-end yields.
⚡ Cross-Asset Signal Map
| Asset | 31.3 signal | Bias |
| USD | Still yield- and haven-supported, though less extreme than mid-month | Bullish / resilient |
| Oil / Energy | Volatile, but still the master macro variable | Structurally bullish, tactically unstable |
| Rates / Duration | Relief rally, but no clean return to cut-cycle pricing | Cautious / duration still fragile |
| U.S. equities | Strong rebound, but oil-sensitive and macro-fragile | Tactical bullish only |
| Europe | Rebounded, but remains the weakest DM macro block | Bearish medium-term |
| Japan | FX stress + oil sensitivity + policy uncertainty | Cautious / fragile |
💡 One-Line Trade Takeaway
31.3 was a relief-rally day, not a regime-reset day: tactically friendlier for equities, but the medium-term premium-desk bias still favors long USD, selective energy exposure, caution on duration, and underweight Europe until oil and inflation both cool more decisively.
Companies.
+) Micron Technology — Post-Earnings Momentum Extends (Overweight / Buy dips)
Follow-through buying persisted after strong results, with HBM demand reinforcing the AI memory upcycle and lifting sentiment across the semiconductor supply chain.
👉 Strategy: Buy on pullbacks
👉 Risk: Memory cycle volatility
+) Walgreens Boots Alliance — Structural Weakness Reconfirmed (Underweight / Sell rallies)
Shares declined as ongoing margin pressure and weak retail pharmacy trends highlighted deeper structural issues, limiting upside despite restructuring efforts.
👉 Strategy: Sell into strength
👉 Risk: Turnaround execution
+) Delta Air Lines — Travel Strength vs Margin Pressure (Neutral / Tactical)
Airlines traded mixed as strong passenger demand remained intact, but rising costs and late-cycle dynamics capped upside potential.
👉 Strategy: Trade range
👉 Risk: Demand resilience surprises
+) Cintas — Corporate Spending Stability (Accumulate)
Cintas remained supported by steady demand for business services, signaling resilience in corporate spending despite macro uncertainty.
👉 Strategy: Accumulate
👉 Risk: Economic slowdown
+) Coinbase — Liquidity-Driven Volatility (High Risk Trade)
Crypto-linked equities moved sharply with digital asset volatility, reflecting sensitivity to liquidity conditions rather than fundamentals.
👉 Strategy: Trade only
👉 Risk: Sudden reversals
+) Freeport-McMoRan — Copper Strength as Macro Signal (Buy dips)
Freeport gained as copper prices held firm, reflecting both global growth expectations and demand from electrification and AI infrastructure themes.
👉 Strategy: Buy on dips
👉 Risk: China demand slowdown
+) Cloudflare — AI Edge Theme Gains Traction (Tactical Long)
Cloudflare continued to benefit from growing interest in edge computing as part of the broader AI ecosystem, expanding beyond hyperscaler dominance.
👉 Strategy: Follow momentum
👉 Risk: Execution risk
General
1) Inflation pressure remains elevated but less explosive at the margin
After the late-March energy spike, oil prices showed signs of stabilization below peak levels, helping to ease immediate panic around inflation. However, the level of prices remains high enough to keep inflation expectations elevated.
Market Impact:
- Inflation remains sticky, not accelerating further
- CPI risk stabilizes but stays above target trajectory
- Disinflation timeline remains delayed
2) Central banks remain constrained, not pivoting
Despite some easing in energy momentum, policymakers continue to signal no urgency to cut rates, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent inflation risks.
Market Impact:
- Rate cuts remain priced later in the year
- Yield curve stays elevated
- Policy remains a cap on aggressive risk-on
3) Financial conditions stabilize but remain tight
The combination of high yields, elevated energy prices, and prior volatility has created tight but stable financial conditions, rather than further tightening.
Market Impact:
- Liquidity not improving meaningfully
- Credit and duration still face pressure
- Risk assets lack strong macro support
Strategic Scenarios (Positioning Lens)
Base Case:
- Prolonged but contained tensions
- Oil stabilizes ~$90–100
- Markets consolidate with defensive bias
Bull Case:
- Clear diplomatic progress
- Oil declines materially
- Risk assets regain upside
Bear Case:
- Renewed escalation
- Oil spikes again
- Broad risk-off across assets
Bottom Line (Institutional Takeaway)
Markets are transitioning into a stable but constrained regime:
- Inflation remains elevated but not worsening
- Policy stays restrictive
- Energy markets stabilize but remain tight
- Risk assets shift from decline → consolidation
➡️ Positioning bias: neutral-to-defensive, selective risk exposure, maintain inflation hedges while monitoring geopolitical developments closely
Upcoming News
Markets open Q2 with a fresh-quarter reallocation and growth-reassessment bias, as investors reset positioning following quarter-end flows and digest late-March inflation and activity data. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive but data-sensitive, with FX and rates trading on early-month indicators that will shape expectations for Q2 growth momentum and central bank policy paths. Liquidity conditions normalize, and price action is expected to become more fundamentally driven after flow-heavy sessions.
In the United States, attention centers on ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, both critical in assessing industrial momentum and labour-market tightness at the start of the new quarter. Markets will look for confirmation that activity is stabilizing without reigniting price pressures. A softer ISM print or declining job openings would reinforce expectations of gradual policy easing later in 2026, likely weighing on the USD and supporting Treasuries. Conversely, resilient activity and labour demand could stabilize yields and support the dollar in early Q2 positioning.
Across Europe, final PMI readings will confirm whether late-Q1 activity trends are stabilizing, shaping expectations for the ECB’s policy trajectory. EUR price action remains primarily driven by relative yield differentials versus the U.S., though surprises in activity data could trigger short-term moves. In the Asia–Pacific region, China’s Caixin PMI and Japan’s Tankan survey provide important insight into business sentiment and regional growth dynamics, influencing CNH, JPY, and commodity-linked assets. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that macro data and positioning flows dominate the session.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 07:30 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Tankan Large Manufacturers Index | Business sentiment; JPY & equity impact |
| 08:45 | 🔴 Red News | China | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | Private-sector activity; CNH & commodities |
| 16:55 | 🔴 Red News | Germany | Manufacturing PMI (Final) | Eurozone growth confirmation; EUR sensitivity |
| 17:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | Manufacturing PMI (Final) | Activity momentum; ECB outlook |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | JOLTS Job Openings | Labour-market tightness; Fed policy implications |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Primary activity signal; USD & rates impact |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Start-of-quarter positioning / policy headlines | May amplify FX and rates moves |
Snapshot (01.4.2026)
🛢 Oil | Stabilizing at Elevated Levels
- WTI Crude 102.17 (+0.61%)
- Brent Crude 107.63 (+0.99%)
Oil prices continued to edge higher, maintaining strength after the previous rally, suggesting supply concerns remain a key driver.
🟢 USD Softens Slightly | DXY 99.75 (-0.10%)
The U.S. Dollar eased modestly, slipping back below the 100 mark as markets showed signs of stabilizing risk sentiment.
🔄 G7 FX | USD Mixed, Risk Currencies Rebound
- EUR/USD 1.1571 (+0.16%)
- GBP/USD 1.3245 (+0.20%)
- USD/JPY 158.79 (+0.03%)
- AUD/USD 0.6727 (+0.38%)
EUR and GBP strengthened against the USD, while AUD outperformed—indicating a mild recovery in risk appetite.
🪙 Crypto | Gradual Recovery
- BTC 68,205 (-0.01%)
- ETH 2,108 (+0.26%)
- SOL 83.47 (+0.61%)
Crypto markets showed early signs of stabilization, with altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.
🥇 Metals | Gold Extends Rebound
- Gold 4,716 (+0.95%)
- Silver 74.99 (-0.20%)
Gold continued its upward move, supported by lingering macro uncertainty despite a softer USD.
📊 Equities | Strong Rebound Led by Tech
- S&P 500 6,557.23 (+0.37%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,673.46 (+0.34%)
- Dow Jones 46,471.46 (+0.25%)
- Nasdaq 23,740.19 (+3.43%)
- VIX 24.67 (-1.00%)
Equities rebounded strongly, particularly in tech, with Nasdaq leading gains—while volatility eased, signaling improving market sentiment.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen.
