Welp, fail on negotiation and 1-way trading. PPI today!
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war, as it will update per second; any volatility from the next morning will get the charts to the highest levels. Stay highly cautious.
Data:
Geopolitical Resilience: Equities Rally as Diplomacy Re-emerges.
Global markets started the week under heavy pressure following the “Islamabad Deadlock” (the failure of weekend peace talks between the US and Iran). However, a late-session reversal was triggered by President Trump’s comments suggesting that Iran had reached out to resume negotiations. This “diplomatic hope” allowed the S&P 500 to wipe out its YTD losses, while oil prices pared their initial spike above the $100 mark.
🟦 Global Rates | Yields soften from session highs
The “higher-for-longer” fear spiked early Monday as the Strait of Hormuz blockade began, but yields moderated as the session progressed on renewed negotiation hopes.
- United States (USTs):
- 2Y: ~3.75–3.80%
- 10Y: ~4.30% – 4.33% (Declined from an intra-day high of 4.35%)
- 30Y: ~4.88–4.92%
- Australia (ACGB):
- 10Y: ~4.95% – 4.97% (Slightly lower following the US lead, but still near the psychological 5% barrier)
- Germany (Bunds):
- 10Y: ~3.05–3.10% (Upward pressure persists in the Eurozone)
- Japan (JGB):
- 10Y: ~2.25–2.30% (Stable amid BOJ intervention chatter)
👉 Trading implication: Bond volatility remains extreme. The shift from 4.35% to 4.30% in the US 10Y provided the “oxygen” needed for the equity rally.
🟩 U.S. Equities | The “Green for 2026” Comeback
Wall Street staged a massive mid-day turnaround. The S&P 500 is now back in positive territory for the year 2026.
- S&P 500 (US500): +1.02% (Closed at 6886.24)
- Nasdaq Composite: +1.2% (Outperformed as yields retreated from highs)
- Dow Jones: +0.6% (+301 points)
👉 Trading implication: Growth stocks (AI & Tech) remain highly sensitive to yield fluctuations. Oracle (+11.8%) led the index, signaling a rotation back into “proven” AI winners.
🟨 Europe & Asia | Mixed Sentiment
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Closed marginally green (+0.2%) as traders weighed the US-Iran blockade against potential diplomatic breakthroughs.
- Nikkei 225: ~-0.5% (Early session weakness due to Yen volatility near 159).
- ASX 200 (Australia): Rose strongly in late trade, tracking the US futures recovery.
🟥 Macro “Red News” | Building Stability
- Canada Building Permits (Feb): 8% (Actual) vs -0.5% (Forecast). A significant beat driven by industrial and government projects.
- Islamabad Peace Talks: Reported as a “deadlock” on Sunday, but pivoted to “negotiation resumption” by Monday afternoon.
- US Naval Blockade: Official commencement of the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining a high floor for energy prices.
🟧 High-Impact Headlines | Market Drivers
- Trump on Iran: “They want to make a deal”—the quote that saved the Monday session.
- Brent Crude: Spiked to $103/bbl early, but settled near $98/bbl.
- Goldman Sachs Earnings: Revenue miss in Fixed Income and Commodities weighed on the stock (-1.9%), despite record equity trading results.
- Strait of Hormuz: Physical oil market reports “near-hysteria” with a massive buyer-bid imbalance.
⚡ Cross-Asset Signal Map
| Asset | Signal | Bias |
| USD | Consolidating | Neutral/Bullish |
| Oil | Volatile | Bullish (Due to blockade) |
| Gold | Firm | Bullish (Hedge against deadlock) |
| U.S. Equities | Rebound | Tactical Bullish |
| AUD/USD | Recovery | Tactical Bullish (Testing 0.6620) |
Companies.
Software Surge: AI Monetization Drives Oracle’s Breakout while Banks Face Geopolitical Friction.
The corporate narrative on Monday was a tale of two extremes: a massive “relief rally” in software following the weekend’s sell-off and a cautious “sell-the-news” reaction to record-breaking bank earnings.
🚀 Market Movers | The Software Renaissance
The technology sector, specifically Enterprise Software, enjoyed its best session in a year. Investors decoupled cloud-native business models from the physical logistical nightmares caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
- Oracle (ORCL) [+12.7%]: Oracle was the undisputed leader of the S&P 500. Shares soared after the company showcased its Opower AI platform at the Customer Edge Summit, demonstrating real-world AI monetization in the utilities sector. This provided the “AI Proof of Concept” the market has been desperate for.
- Dell Technologies (DELL) [+6.7%] & HP (HPQ) [+5.3%]: Hardware giants surged on renewed acquisition speculation and a “buy-the-dip” wave as institutional investors rebalanced back into high-quality tech following Friday’s de-risking.
- ServiceNow (NOW) & Salesforce (CRM): Both followed Oracle’s lead, gaining ~4-5% as analysts highlighted a “value opportunity” in software names that had been oversold during the initial weeks of the Iran conflict.
🏦 Earnings & Corporate News | Goldman Sachs’ Paradox
The Q1 earnings season kicked off with a paradox: record fundamentals met with geopolitical skepticism.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) [-1.8%]: Goldman reported its second-highest quarterly revenue in history ($17.23B) and an EPS of $17.55 (beating the $16.47 consensus). Despite the record-breaking performance, the stock fell. Traders are questioning the sustainability of investment banking fees if the US-Iran blockade leads to a prolonged global slowdown.
- Energy Giants (XOM/CVX): These stocks traded with extreme intra-day volatility. After an early spike on news of the naval blockade, they settled marginally lower as President Trump’s “deal-making” rhetoric took some of the “war premium” out of the price.
📊 Sector Highlights | Divergent Paths
| Sector | Performance | Key Driver |
| Technology/Software | 🟩 Strong | Oracle’s AI utility tools & sector-wide “value hunt.” |
| Energy | 🟨 Neutral | Blockade vs. Diplomatic hope; crude holding near $98. |
| Financials | 🟥 Weak | Geopolitical “sell-the-news” on strong GS earnings. |
| Materials/Miners | 🟩 Resilient | Late-day ASX strength tracking the US equity turnaround. |
General
Connecting the Dots: The Diplomatic Seesaw and the “Hormuz Factor.”
The market action on April 13th, 2026, was a masterclass in “Geopolitical Volatility.” After a weekend of grim headlines from Pakistan, the session transformed from a defensive sell-off into a narrative-driven recovery. This section breaks down the logic behind the “Islamabad Deadlock” and the sudden pivot to “Diplomatic Hope.”
- The Islamabad Deadlock & The Blockade Logic
The weekend concluded with a significant diplomatic failure. The Islamabad Talks—the most critical engagement since 1979—ended without a breakthrough.
- The Escalation: Following the deadlock, President Trump followed through on his threat, ordering a US Central Command blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective 1400 GMT.
- The Initial Reaction: Markets opened with “Stagflationary” panic. Oil prices spiked toward $103/bbl, and the US 10Y yield touched 35%, reflecting fears that energy supply disruptions would force the Fed into a corner of even higher rates.
- The “Trump Pivot”: Jawboning the Market Back to Green
The dramatic intra-day reversal was fueled not by data, but by rhetoric. President Trump’s mid-day assertion that Iran had reached out to resume negotiations acted as a powerful “circuit breaker.”
- The Psychology: Investors are increasingly skeptical of headlines, but “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) on a peace deal remains high.
- The Interpretation: The market is currently operating on a “Binary Outcome” It is either “Full Blockade/Stagflation” or “Grand Deal/Recovery.” Trump’s comments moved the needle just enough toward the latter to trigger a massive short-covering rally in equities.
- The IMF/World Bank Backdrop: Policy in a Crisis
The start of the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C. provided a sobering contrast to the speculative equity rally.
- The Focus: While Wall Street cheered the “hope” of a deal, IMF policymakers were focused on the “Stagflationary Lite” Discussions centered on how to protect global growth if the Hormuz blockade lasts longer than a week.
- The Reality: The IMF’s warnings about energy-driven inflation are exactly what keeps the US 10Y yield anchored at 4.30%. There is a clear divide: Equities are trading on possibilities, while the IMF and Bond markets are trading on probabilities.
- Inter-market Divergence: Software vs. Financials
Monday’s “General” narrative was also defined by a shift in what defines “Safety.”
- Software as the Shield: The outperformance of Oracle (+12.7%) suggests that investors are fleeing to assets that don’t rely on physical supply chains. In a world where the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, “Cloud Revenue” is safer than “Commodity Revenue.”
- The Goldman Sachs Paradox: The sell-off in GS despite record earnings shows that the market is discounting current profits against future geopolitical friction. Investors are essentially saying: “Good quarter, but we don’t like the environment you have to operate in for the rest of 2026.”
Upcoming News
The “Inflation & Stability” Double-Header: IMF Projections and PPI Data.
Tuesday, April 14th, 2026, marks one of the most critical sessions of the month. As the IMF Spring Meetings move into high gear, the focus shifts from diplomatic rhetoric to hard economic projections. Following the “Islamabad Deadlock” over the weekend, the market is desperately seeking a roadmap for global stability amidst the ongoing naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
🔴 High-Impact “Red News” (Tuesday, April 14th, 2026) – AEST timezone
| Time (AEST) | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
| 23:00 | ALL | IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) | N/A | 3.3% (Proj) | 🔴 High |
| 23:00 | ALL | IMF Global Financial Stability Report | N/A | N/A | 🔴 High |
| 23:30 | USD | Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m | 0.4% | 0.7% | 🔴 High |
| 23:30 | USD | Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | 🔴 High |
| All Day | OIL | OPEC Monthly Report (Iran War Impact) | N/A | N/A | 🔴 High |
- The IMF “Verdict” (World Economic Outlook)
- The Context: The IMF is set to release its most anticipated report of 2026. Given the energy crisis caused by the US-Iran naval blockade, markets expect a significant downward revision to global growth.
- What to watch: Look for the “Inflation vs. War” If the IMF predicts that energy-driven inflation will force central banks to stay restrictive despite slowing growth, the “Stagflation” fear will intensify.
- The Global Signal: This report will set the tone for the G7 and G20 finance ministers meeting in Washington this week.
- US Producer Price Index (The “Pre-CPI” Pulse)
- The Context: Following the sentiment shock on the 10th, the PPI will confirm whether price pressures are still cooling or if the supply chain disruptions from the Hormuz blockade are already hitting the “factory gate.”
- The Play: A print above 5% for Core PPI will validate the bond market’s aggressive yield pricing (US 10Y near 4.35%) and likely cap the current equity relief rally.
- OPEC’s War Assessment
- The Context: OPEC will release its first public assessment of the Iran conflict’s impact on global demand.
- The Divergence: Watch for discrepancies between OPEC and the US EIA. If OPEC signals a sharp drop in second-quarter demand due to the war, it may paradoxically cool the oil rally, even as physical supplies remain blocked.
Snapshot (13.4.2026)
The “Trump Pivot” and the Great Equities Comeback
This Snapshot summarizes a high-octane Monday session where diplomatic rhetoric managed to temporarily neutralize the structural risks of a naval blockade.
🏛️ The Bottom Line
Monday was defined by “Narrative over Reality.” Despite the official commencement of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, global equities staged a massive relief rally. The S&P 500 wiped out its 2026 losses, fueled by President Trump’s hints at a potential “Grand Deal” with Iran and Oracle’s breakthrough in AI monetization. However, the bond market remains skeptical, with yields anchored above 4.30% ahead of Tuesday’s IMF projections.
📉 Key Technical Levels
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Current Bias |
| S&P 500 | 6,780 | 6,900 | Bullish (Tactical) |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.25% | 4.35% | Neutral/Bearish |
| AUD/USD | 0.6580 | 0.6650 | Bullish (Recovery) |
| Gold (XAU) | $2,420 | $2,510 | Bullish (Hedge) |
| WTI Oil | $94.00 | $103.00 | Volatile |
📊 Market Sentiment & Bias
- Equities (U.S.): 🟢 The “FOMO” on a peace deal is currently stronger than the fear of the blockade.
- Foreign Exchange (USD): 🟡 The USD softened as yields moderated, allowing G10 currencies (AUD/GBP) to breathe.
- Fixed Income: 🔴 Investors are avoiding bonds as the IMF prepares to warn about energy-driven inflation.
- Commodities: 🟢 Even with “peace talk,” the physical blockade keeps a high floor under Crude and Gold.
💡 Top Trade Takeaway: “The Software Surge”
Focus: Long Enterprise Software (ORCL/MSFT/CRM).
Logic: Monday proved that “Cloud Revenue” is immune to the Strait of Hormuz. While banks (GS) struggle with geopolitical friction and energy remains volatile, software is the only sector offering clear growth visibility.
Risk: Keep a tight stop on the US 10Y at 4.35%. If yields break above this level during Tuesday’s PPI release, the equity rally will likely evaporate.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen.
