MARKET REPORT
Review:
– ALL EYES ON TOM CPI! (June cut be decided on). Tom CPI to determine if previous uptick was decreasing Infl stalled or temp fluctuation. Bets for Fed June cut stand at 57%
– Coinbase, others meet with SEC over Ether ETF’s
– BTC moves ahead of Silver as worlds 8th largest asset
– LSE to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs
– NY Fed SCE sees 3yr and 5yr inflation forecasts lifted
– META receives negative mention from Fmr. President Trump
– Another Boeing 737 incident sees shares drop 3%
– Hotter-than-expected Chinese CPI, but PPI cooler
– Ramadan starts
– Chinese congress unites behind Xi
– Haiti continues to descend (world in shock)
– Japan avoided a technical recession for Q4
– NVIDIA drops another 2% after Fridays 5.5% retrace
– Moderna up 8.7% helps stem bourse declines, who’s up for a booster?
– ALL EYES ON CPI TOM (Get what Im saying?)
DOLLAR DX: Up small: 102.85 +0.15% (102.63 – 102.91) Off highs
– AUD down: 66.12 -0.22% (66.20 – 65.95) Mid Rge
– EUR up small: 91.50 +0.12% (91.32 – 91.58) Highs
– GBP down: 128.10 -0.37 % (128.57 – 127.96) Lows
– JPY UNCH: 146.96 UNCH (146.49 – 147.11) Off highs
GOLD UNCH: $2187 UNCH ($2182 – $2192) Mid rgr
DOW/ES/ND: 38785 UNCH, 5125 -0.1%, 17970 -0.4%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +2650/+3.8% 72115, +127/+3.5% 4035 Highs
CRUDEUNCH: $78.04 UNCH ($78.31 – $76.75) Highs
Upcoming:
AU: NAB Bus Confidence
UK: Unemployment
US: CPI!
Speakers:
BoE Butt
ECB Buch
Earnings:
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar saw mild upside on Monday but DXY found resistance just shy of 103. There was little reaction to the NY FED SCE which saw both the 3yr and 5yr inflation expectations raised, although the 1yr was left unchanged. Looking ahead, a note from Citi strategists stated that “rallies in the coming weeks are an opportunity to add to shorts.”
DOLLAR DX: Up small: 102.85 +0.15% (102.63 – 102.91) Off highs
No call Pre CPI
10 –
AUD:
Barely a 20pip move in a muted session. Nothing to report of value pre CPI
AUD down: 66.12 -0.22% (66.20 – 65.95) Mid Rge
No call Pre CPI
6
GBP
The weakness in the Pound was simply a reversal from the strong gains on Friday with Cable briefly breaking beneath the Friday low of 1.2797 to 1.2792, before paring back above 1.2800. There was little fresh news fundamentally from the UK, with BoE’s Mann repeating hawkish remarks although UBS pushed back their BoE rate cut forecast to August from May.
GBP down: 128.10 -0.37 % (128.57 – 127.96) Lows
No call Pre CPI
12-
EUR
Commentary from Kazimir and Makhlouf did little to change the dial with the former noting the ECB should wait until June for the first rate cut while Makhlouf was pushing for a gradual change in the policy stance.
EUR up small: 91.50 +0.12% (91.32 – 91.58) Highs
No call Pre CPI
9-
YEN:
Ultimately flat against the Dollar but still a relative outperformer to other currencies. Some strength was observed overnight after GDP revisions saw Japan avoid a technical recession, albeit still missing analyst expectations. USD/JPY hit a low of 146.49 but looks to end the US session around 147.00; technicians at Citi highlight that USD/JPY “is closing in on major resistance at 145.90-146.22 (Feb high, 200d MA).” Attention will turn to the US CPI data on Tuesday, but also the first tally of the Rengo wage negotiations. JiJi reported that many Japanese firms are offering big pay hikes in the 2024 Shunto talks. Meanwhile, Japan’s Keidanren Chair says they are feeling greater momentum for wage hikes at this year’s spring labour talks vs the prior year.
JPY UNCH: 146.96 UNCH (146.49 – 147.11) Off highs
No call Pre CPI
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Nothing to report. Stunted range, CPI morn will decide. No info of value to offer pre number.
GOLD UNCH: $2187 UNCH ($2182 – $2192) Mid rgr
No call Pre CPI
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.11% 5,117
– NDX -0.37% 17,951
– DJIA +0.12% 38,769|
– RUT -0.81% 2,065
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.05% 17,755.45
– FTSE: +0.12% 7,669.23
– CAC: -0.10% 8,019.73
– ES50: -0.63% 4,930.65
SECTORS (S to W): Real Estate -0.49%, Consumer Discretionary -0.49%, Industrials -0.53%, Technology -0.38%, Communication Services -0.23%, Health -0.05%, Financials +0.2%, Utilities +0.51%, Consumer Staples +0.58%, Energy +1%, Materials +1.13%
STOCKS
-Crypto-exposed names (COIN, MARA, MSTR) are seeing gains on account of the Bitcoin strength while the latter purchased 12k Bitcoins for USD 821.7mln in cash.
– Boeing -3%: DoJ opens a probe investigating the mid-air door panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines (ALK) flight two months ago. In response, Boeing said “in an event like this, it’s normal for the DoJ to be conducting an investigation,” adding that it was “fully co-operating and do not believe we are a target of the investigation.”
– Meta -4.5%: Negative mention from GOP Presidential candidate Trump
– Apple +1%: Reportedly testing AI-powered ad products for its App Store, according to Business Insider.
– Tesla +1.5%: Raised the price of its Model Y to USD 43,990 (prev. 42,990) in the US and Model Y Long Range to USD 48,990 (prev. 47,990). Meanwhile, its Berlin gigafactory could regain power from today.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 0.08 LOWER AT 77.93/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED 0.13 HIGHER AT 82.21/BBL
Oil was choppy to start the week but eventually settled flat, albeit well off lows, with firmer-than-expected Chinese inflation data, Dollar strength, general risk aversion, and continued geopolitical tensions all pushing and pulling the crude complex. On the latter, no cease-fire agreement has been reached between Israel/Hamas despite the start of Ramadan, which was deemed the deadline, while Ukrainian military intelligence cited by Al Arabiya said they are preparing to launch serious offensive operations in Crimea. On the day, WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 76.79/bbl and 81.08/bbl, respectively, as US equity futures were at lows and the Dollar was at highs. Elsewhere, there was commentary from Saudi Aramco (details below) and, according to Reuters sources, Saudi Arabia plans to reduce Arab heavy crude supply to term customers in Asia next month due to oil field maintenance. Looking ahead, US CPI (Tues) is the main macro event in addition to monthly oil market reports from OPEC, EIA and IEA.
SAUDI ARAMCO: Saudi Aramco CEO said FY23 saw lower crude oil prices and lower volumes sold but noted that global oil demand reached record levels despite geopolitical tensions and they expect the global oil market to remain healthy in 2024, while he considers supply and demand to be in reasonable balance. CEO Nasser also put 2024 demand at 104mln BPD, vs. an average of 102.4mln BPD in 2023.Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE UNCH: $78.04 UNCH ($78.31 – $76.75) Highs
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.365 -0.008
US 6-MO 5.317 +0.023
US 1-YR 4.976 +0.037
US 5-YR 4.088 +0.026
US 10-YR 4.098 +0.01
US 30-YR 4.262 UNCH
2YR/10YR -0.44
CRYPTO
– Record $2.7B flowed into crypto last week.
– Since start of yr $10.3 flowed into crypto assets
– $10.6b lowed into crypto in 2021
Getting into bubble territory. $80k IS YOUR CEILING. No 100k pre halving. Im in favour of a short 73k+ to test the 60 support and down to 50k support. You didn’t here it first but buying here? 72.5K? Upside vs downside. One is metering, the other is expanded rubber band.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +2650/+3.8% 72115, +127/+3.5% 4035 Highs
No call
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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