MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
1873 Crash of the Vienna Bourse
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– NY Fed SCE sees 1yr & 5yr inflation expectations unchanged, but 3yr rises
– Cooler-than-expected China inflation data
GENERAL:
– Apple (-1.05%) introduced the latest version of its flagship product, the iPhone 16, with Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook saying it was designed to take advantage of artificial intelligence from the “ground up.”
– on updating its AirPods line, announcing new the entry-level AirPods 4 and AirPods 4 with active noise cancelation, upgraded AirPods Pro 2 with a built-in hearing aid function, and new colors for the AirPods Max over-the-ear headphones during its annual iPhone event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters on Monday.
– Apple announced updates to its entire Apple Watch lineup during its annual iPhone event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters on Monday. The changes include a new Apple Watch Series 10 and updates to its Apple Watch Ultra 2. The Apple Watch Series 10, which starts at $399, gets the biggest changes of the lot, with Apple increasing the display size of the 41-millimeter model to 42 mm and the previous 45-mm edition to 46 mm. The watches also sport slimmer casings than their predecessors.
– On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecast for the second time in a month, citing recent price declines that signal the risk of “considerable demand weakness.” Morgan now predicts Brent will average $75 in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised forecast of $80 issued in late August.
– Energy names reduce production ahead of Tropical Storm Francine
– Israel Strikes Syrian Chemical weapons factory
– Trump Debates Harris tomorrow
– Equities up, Treasuries mixed, Crude up, Dollar up
Coming Up:
– German CPI (F), UK Unemployment/Wages, Norway CPI, Chinese Trade
Speakers:
– BoC Governor Macklem
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was firmer to start the week, albeit in thin newsflow, amid the Fed blackout ahead of the meeting next Wednesday, September 18th. Prior to this, there is the US Presidential Debate on Tuesday and US CPI on Wednesday, whereby the latter will likely be pivotal ahead of the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, given the magnitude of the cut is still a toss-up, albeit with most favouring a smaller 25bps cut. For the record, NY Fed SCE (Aug) saw 1yr and 5yr inflation expectations unchanged at 3% and 2.8%, respectively, while the 3yr ticked higher to 2.5% from 2.3% in July. The Dollar Index hit a high of 101.690, against an earlier low of 101.160. Report courtesy of newsquark.
EUR/GBP
– For the Euro, all participants await the ECB rate decision on Thursday, whereby a 25bps cut is widely expected with a focus on any tweaks to macro projections/hints at further rate cuts. EUR/USD hit a trough of 1.1035, with levels to the downside being last week’s low of 1.1026. Cable bottomed out at 1.3069, with UK-specific drivers light, but it ramps up from Tuesday with labour market data, followed by GDP on Wednesday. To the downside, the 21DMA sits at 1.3065.
EQUITIES:
– Nasdaq to one of the most oversold levels since the covid crash
EUR:
– DAX: +0.71% at 18,431, FTSE 100: +1.09% at 8,271, CAC 40: +0.99% at 7,425, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.87% at 4,779
US:
– SPX +1.16% at 5,471, NDX +1.3% at 18,661, DJIA +1.2% at 40,830, RUT +1.13% at 2,115.
Sectors (W to S): Communication Services +0.04%, Health +0.74%, Energy +0.77%, Consumer Staples +0.82%, Utilities +0.98%, Materials +0.99%, Real Estate +1.15%, Financials +1.40%, Technology +1.42%, Industrials +1.56%, Consumer Discretionary +1.63%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold prices held their ground on Monday, as investors awaited the U.S. inflation report for further clues on the potential size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut.
Bullion “will probably be fairly consolidated, perhaps a little bit choppy in the established range in gold,” said Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, who expects gold to hit all-time highs.
Bullion hit a record high of $2,531.60 on Aug. 20.
Traders now see a 73% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s meeting next week, and a 27% chance of a 50 bp reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool, opens new tab.
“The market seems to be reconciling that the Fed is probably more likely to do the smaller 25-basis-point cut and that’s been my position all along,” Grant added.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yield bullion.
GOLD down: $2525 -0.69% (2559 – 2515) Off LOWS
BONDS:
US 1-MO 5.105 -0.046
US 6-MO 4.732 +0.007
US 1-YR 4.13 -0.019
US 5-YR 3.489 UNCH
US 10-YR 3.702 -0.008
US 30-YR 4.003 -0.017
2YR/10YR -0.03 -0.03
CRYPTO
– Americans were duped out of more than $5.6 billion last year through fraud schemes involving cryptocurrency, the FBI said in a report released Monday that shows a 45% jump in losses from 2022.
The FBI received nearly 70,000 complaints in 2023 from victims of financial fraud involving bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies, according to the FBI. The most rampant scheme was investment fraud, which accounted for $3.96 billion of the losses.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVkF49dbd_w
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3HsSjS6n-k
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmbpagijVkk
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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