MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Vienna Stock Exchange
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– PAYROLLS +142K vs EXP +160K PREV revised down 25K (Caps off Disappointing ADP, Challenger & JOLTS reports)
– Wage Growth +0.4% vs EXP +0.3% Prev +0.2%
– Unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% as Expected from 4.3% July
– Revisions to June and July show 86K less than reported
– Traders are now pricing in a nearly 50% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 50bps later in the month, compared to about 30% early in the week
– Market pivoted to a loose consensus that the Federal Reserve will deliver 125bps in rate cuts in its three remaining decisions this year instead of expectations of 100bps in cuts from the start of the week:
– During a late August speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the cooling in the labor market has been “unmistakable” and added that the central bank does not “seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
– Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said it is now appropriate for the central bank to reduce interest rates
– He emphasized rising risks in the labor market and expressed openness to a more substantial rate cut if necessary
Since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs:
– CAD Unemployment hits 6.6% (highest since Oct 2021) vs Exp 6.5% Prev 6.4% in July
COMPANIES:
– Buffet offloads BoA stock (-2.77%)
– Nvidia Corp. (-4.09%) has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week
– The world’s largest artificial-intelligence chipmaker has shed a fifth of its value over the past two weeks. The declines also showcase a more pressing issue for investors in the $2.5 trillion giant
– Amazon -3.4%
– INTC considering selling part of MBLY stake
GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Crude Oil decreased to a 14-month low of 67.56 USD/Bbl. Over the past 4 weeks, Crude Oil WTI lost 10.09%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.49%
– Orange Juice increased to an all-time high of 555.00 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Orange Juice gained 21.61%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 53.32%
– Harvard and Columbia rank as the worst two colleges for free speech
– Heating Oil/Crude/Brent -2.5%, Silver -3.15%, Cocoa +12%, Corn -7%
– Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar up, BTC/ETH HIT
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 101.19 -UNCH (100.62 – 101.38) Off HIGHS
– AUD DOWN: 66.68 -1.07% (67.66 – 66.62) LOWS
– EUR up: 90.2 +0.2% (89.96 – 90.33) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.31 +-0.36% (132.36 – 131.12) Off LOWS
– JPY down: 142.27 -0.79% (143.84 – 141.88) Off LOWS
GOLD down: $2525 -0.69% (2559 – 2515) Off LOWS
DOW/ES/ND down/down/DOWN 40289 -1.32%, 5400 -2%, 18377 -3.1%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN/DOWN 52777 -6%, 2179 -8%
CRUDE Down: $68.09 -1.46% (70.11 – 67.18) Off LOWS
Coming Up:
– ECB is anticipated to reduce borrowing costs next week
– China CPI
– US CPI/PPI
– UK GDP & employment/wages
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was choppy to end the week, but eventually ended the day with gains as it was buoyed by general risk-off sentiment and Fed speakers seemingly not endorsing 50bps cut after initially being hit by the US jobs report.
The Dollar Index fell to a trough of 100.55 after the headline missed expectations alongside the prior revised notably lower, but the data set failed to provide a distinct direction for the magnitude of the September 16th FOMC rate cut. Note, DXY fell just short of its YTD low of 101.51. After the jobs report, the influential Williams and Waller were on the wires, whereby WSJ’s Timiraos suggested that both of them support a 25bps Sept rate cut. Money market pricing currently has a 25bps for September fully baked in with a circa 28% chance of a 50bps rate reduction. Nonetheless, Williams’ comments soon after the jobs data helped pick the Buck off lows, and back above 101, after Timiraos noted the remarks “don’t make any effort to lay the groundwork for a 50bps cut”. The Buck continued to be supported by the risk-off sentiment into the weekend, whereby participants next week await the inflation data amid the Fed blackout ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Report courtesy of newsquark.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 101.19 -UNCH (100.62 – 101.38) Off HIGHS
EUR/GBP
– EUR saw losses with the EUR/USD largely guided by the USD side of the equation with disappointing German industrial output data and the appointment of Barnier as French PM having little follow-through for the single currency.
– EUR up: 90.2 +0.2% (89.96 – 90.33) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.31 +-0.36% (132.36 – 131.12) Off LOWS
AUD:
– Antipodeans were also hit by falling commodity prices, especially iron ore.
– AUD DOWN: 66.68 -1.07% (67.66 – 66.62) LOWS
YEN:
– JPY was the clear G10 outperformer, and the only one seeing gains against the Greenback as it benefitted from US Treasury yields and equity weakness. As was the case with the Dollar, USD/JPY saw two-way action after the US jobs report, but through the afternoon the Yen strengthened to see the cross hit a low of 141.79, as Williams and Waller signalled a leaning towards a 25bps reduction, but the August 5th low of 141.68 remained intact.
– JPY down: 142.27 -0.79% (143.84 – 141.88) Off LOWS
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX -1.59% 18,280
– FTSE -0.73% 8,181
– CAC -1.07% 7,352
– ES50 -1.57% 4,740
US:
– SPX -1.73% 5,408
– NDX -2.69% 18,421
– DJIA -1.01% 40,345
– RUT -1.91% 2,091
Sectors (W to S): Communication Services -2.90%, Consumer Discretionary -2.81%, Technology -2.40%, Financials -1.57%, Materials -1.35%, Energy -1.17%, Industrials -1.07%, Utilities -0.94%, Health -0.40%, Consumer Staples -0.31%, Real Estate +0.01%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold prices eased below $2,500 per ounce on Friday, pulling back from near its record high after mixed U.S. jobs data raised doubts about the size of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate cuts.
The US economy added 142 thousand jobs in August, below expectations of a 160 thousand increase, while the payroll count from the previous month was revised downwards by 25 thousand. The report culminated a week of pessimistic labor market data, including downward surprises for the ADP report, the Challenger report, and the JOLTS. Consequently, the market pivoted to a loose consensus that the Federal Reserve will deliver 125bps in rate cuts in its three remaining decisions this year instead of expectations of 100bps in cuts from the start of the week.
Less restrictive monetary policy favors gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
GOLD down: $2525 -0.69% (2559 – 2515) Off LOWS
OIL:
– CRUDE Down: $68.09 -1.46% (70.11 – 67.18) Off LOWS
BONDS:
–
BONDS:
US 1-MO 5.153 -0.008
US 6-MO 4.73 -0.031
US 1-YR 4.114 -0.095
US 5-YR 3.496 -0.044
US 10-YR 3.716 -0.017
US 30-YR 4.024 +0.001
2YR/10YR -0.06 +0.07
CRYPTO
– CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN/DOWN 52777 -6%, 2179 -8%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKfcZ7nP_4Y
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQi8wEHMm5Y&sttick=0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA0neTHUN6M
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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