MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
The Royal Exchange in 1837 shortly before it was destroyed by fire, showing the replacement tower
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– ALL EYES TOMORROW ON PAYROLLS
– Against expectations of adding 145k jobs (a slight improvement over July’s 122k), ADP’s Employment report printed a dismal +99k for August – the weakest print since January 2021 (and July’s +122k was revised down to +111k):
– Initial jobless claims printed 227k (in line with 230k exp) and basically unchanged at two-month lows:
– ISM Services slightly rises while employment sub-index falls;
– Much greater than expected EIA crude draw
COMPANIES:
– TSLA to launch FSD in Europe & China early next year
– Verizon: to acquire Frontier Communications (FYBR, -10%) for USD 20bln, USD 38.5/shr, all-cash
– Paramount: Larry Ellison will control Paramount after the deal, according to Bloomberg
GENERAL:
– UK Halts arms sales to Israel
– Trump proposes 15% corporate tax for US-made products
– Islamist Gunman attacks Jewish consulate in Munich
– OPEC agrees to delay Oct Output hike
– Hunter Biden pleads guilty to $1.4m Tax evasion case
– 75% of mid-town NYC arrests are illegal immigrants
– Trump says he’ll create a government efficiency commission led by Elon Musk
– Equities flat/down, Treasuries up, Crude flat, Dollar down
DOLLAR DX down: 101.10 -0.26% (100.96 – 101.37) MID
– AUD up: 67.36 +0.2% (67.15 – 67.43) Off HIGHS
– EUR down: 90.03 -0.19% (90.27 – 89.91) Off LOWS
– GBP up: 131.70 +0.18% (131.40 – 131.86) Off HIGHS
– JPY down: 143.46 -0.12% (142.85 – 144.20) MID
GOLD up: $2544 +0.74% (2523 – 2553) Off Highs
DOW/ES/ND down/down/UNCH 40806 –0.6%, 5515 -0.25%, 18977 UNCH
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/DOWN: 56073 -3.55%, 2366 -3.6%
CRUDE UNCH: $69.14 UNCH (70.76 – 68.77) Off LOWS
Coming Up:
– Japanese Household Spending
– German Industrial Output, Trade
– EZ Employment (F)
– US NFP
– Canadian Employment
Speakers:
– ECB’s Elderson
– Fed’s Williams, Waller
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was weaker on Thursday, in what was a choppy session.
On the day, the Dollar saw immediate weakness and hit session troughs of 100.96 after the ADP national employment report, whereby it fell to 99k and printed outside the bottom end of analysts’ consensus range.
However, the Index swiftly pared this move ahead of ISM Services, which then helped push the Dollar to a fresh peak of 101.37 after the headline marginally rose and printed slightly above expectations, with the sub-component of employment declining but remaining in expansionary territory.
Further, on the data docket, initial jobless claims marginally declined, and were shy of the expected, but continued to hover around recent ranges continuing to indicate no excess softening of the labour market.
Later in the US afternoon, the Buck was weighed on by the improving risk sentiment in lack of much new.
On the Fed footing, Daly (2024 voter) reiterated recent Fed messaging that the Fed needs to cut the policy rate and added the size of the September rate cut is still unknown and that more data, including Friday’s job market report and CPI, is needed.
Looking ahead, all participants await the August payrolls report on Friday which will help the Fed determine the quantity of the September move. Report courtesy of newsquark.
DOLLAR DX down: 101.10 -0.26% (100.96 – 101.37) MID
EUR/GBP
– EUR: German industrial orders sparked modest strength in the single currency, whilst EZ construction PMIs had little impact. EUR/USD traded between 1.1076-1.1119, and currently sits around the 1.11 mark
– EUR down: 90.03 -0.19% (90.27 – 89.91) Off LOWS
– GBP up: 131.70 +0.18% (131.40 – 131.86) Off HIGHS
AUD:
– RBA’s Bullock reiterated her hawkish tones, although little reaction was seen in the Aussie.
– AUD up: 67.36 +0.2% (67.15 – 67.43) Off HIGHS
YEN:
– The Yen caught a bid following the broader Dollar sell-off, after the US ADP release, but later retraced following the ISM print. Although, as risk sentiment improved through the session the Yen was not as buoyed given its typical haven properties.
Note, overnight Japanese labour cash earnings Y/Y printed way above forecasts, while BoJ’s Takata was on the wires.
– JPY down: 143.46 -0.12% (142.85 – 144.20) MID
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX +0.02% 18,596
– FTSE -0.34% 8,242
– CAC -0.92% 7,432
– ES50 -0.68% 4,815
US:
– SPX -0.3% 5,503
– NDX +0.05% 18,930
– DJIA -0.54% 40,756
– RUT -0.61% 2,132
Sectors (W to S): Health -1.39%, Industrials -1.18%, Financials -1.04%, Materials -0.80%, Energy -0.76%, Consumer Staples -0.41%, Real Estate -0.37%, Utilities -0.27%, Technology +0.05%, Communication Services +0.52%, Consumer Discretionary +1.41%
GOLD/SILVER:
– GOLD up: $2544 +0.74% (2523 – 2553) Off Highs
OIL:
– Oil to not just new 2024 lows, but about to take out the 2023 lows as well.
CRUDE UNCH: $69.14 UNCH (70.76 – 68.77) Off LOWS
BONDS:
– Treasury yields sank for the 3rd consecutive day, sliding 2bps to 3.73%, and except for the freak Aug 5 plunge (from which they quickly recovered), yields are now back to 2024 lows:
BONDS:
US 1-MO 5.159 -0.049
US 6-MO 4.761 -0.019
US 1-YR 4.204 -0.025
US 5-YR 3.537 -0.029
US 10-YR 3.727 -0.041
US 30-YR 4.021 -0.047
2YR/10YR -0.02 -0.02
CRYPTO
– CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/DOWN: 56073 -3.55%, 2366 -3.6%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VFu2xMyLlrA
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8smveMYZTlE
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwlxYYtqHfc
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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