MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
@Gunny 😉
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– In First Post-Rate-Cut Speech, Fed Chair Powell Doesn’t Comment On Monetary Policy
– Final Q2 GDP Beats Estimates On Inventory, Government Boosts; Second Half 2023 Revised Lower
– Pending home sales in the US rose just 0.6% MoM in August (less than the 1.0% MoM expected jump back from the 5.5% plunge in July)
– Pending home sales were down 4.3% YoY (and have not been positive on a YoY basis since Nov 2021).
– Initial Jobless Claims Declined
– CHINA WEIGHS INJECTING $142 BILLION OF CAPITAL INTO TOP BANKS
– 3rd consecutive day of Stimulus.
– Swiss National Bank cut policy rate by 25bp, and Goldman now expects another cut at the December meeting.
COMPANIES:
– Disney planning of laying off several hundred white collars
– Micron Surges +14.5% after the company delivered upbeat quarterly guidance and exceeded analysts’ expectations for its fourth-quarter results
– Alphabet to invest $3.3B in Sth Carolina for data centres
– Costco Wholesale missed market expectations for fourth-quarter revenue on Thursday on cautious spending by budget-conscious customers at its membership-only stores, as well as an impact from lower gasoline prices.
– Shares of the company were down marginally in volatile extended trading.
– Boeing and Unions set to meet over strike
– Super Micro tumbles on potential DOJ investigation
GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses surge on Chinese stimulus (demand for luxury goods)
– Yellen, Bernanke see soft landing
– Eric Adams, sitting NYC major has been accused of bribery, wire fraud, and soliciting illegal foreign campaign donations in federal charges: Unsealed indictment
– Mortgage rates hit 2-yr low
– US Airlines cancel over 1000 flights due Hurricane Helene
– Crude smoked
– Netanyahu Orders Military To Fight Hezbollah At ‘Full Force’, Rules Out Ceasefire
– US, UK Send Hundreds Of Troops To Cyprus For Lebanon Contingencies
– Biden pledges $8B MORE to Ukraine
– Silver hits 12yr high
– Top commodity losers are Orange Juice (-3.56%), Cotton (-3.36%) and Canola (-1.39%). Gains are led by Oat (3.15%), Palm Oil (2.67%) and Coffee (1.92%).
– Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar down
Coming Up:
– PCE!
– Japanese Tokyo CPI, Chinese Industrial Profit, French & Spanish CPI, German Unemployment Rate, EZ Sentiment, UoM Sentiment (Final)
Speakers:
– ECB’s Lane, Cipollone; Fed’s Collins, Kugler, Bowman
MAJORS
DX:
– The Dollar pared a large part of Wednesday’s gains, which were attributed to a mixture of amplified geopolitics, and possible quarterly rebalancing kicking in, and short squeezing, particularly in the USD/JPY, as believed by ING, (reinforced by Credit AG’s model of USD/JPY having the strongest sell signal).
Nonetheless, the day saw Initial Jobless Claims fall for a third straight week to a 4-month low of 218k, while Q2 GDP was unrevised at 3.0% as expected while Durable Goods saw a notable beat. Despite the strong data, the buck failed to benefit with upside in the Euro and risk on trade weighing on the buck.
There was mixed reporting regarding Israel/Lebanon, with initial reports of a ceasefire being denied by both sides.
Fed-speak was anticlimactic on the day, with all six scheduled speakers not commenting on monetary policy/economy or repeating their previous remarks.
Looking ahead, Core PCE (exp. 0.2% M/M) lies as the next key risk ahead, amidst continued Fedspeak (Collins, Kugler, Bowman).
AUD:
– AUD/USD is set to close at highs not seen since early 2023; NZD/USD finished off peaks of 0.6331, with the December 23 high of 0.6369 next in view, and the 200 DMA( 0.6451) going onwards
EURO:
EUR/USD ended the day higher, shrugging off earlier weakness fueled by Reuters sources, saying the ECB rate decision in October is “wide-open”, with doves fighting for a cut following weak data. October pricing for the ECB sits at c. 77% for a 25bps rate cut (prev. 28% after Sept meeting).
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct) being better than anticipated, supported by increases in income expectations and the propensity to buy.
ECB’s Lagarde remarks were not directly related to monetary policy.
CABLE:
– Cable is on track to close around multi-year highs, of roughly 1.3434 (last visited on Feb 22).
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: +1.59% at 19,220, FTSE 100: +0.20% at 8,285, CAC 40: +2.33% at 7,742, Euro Stoxx 50: +2.30% at 5,030
US:
– SPX +0.4% at 5,745, NDX +0.72% at 20,115, DJIA +0.62% at 42,175, RUT +0.57% at 2,210
Sectors (W to S): Energy -2.00%, Real Estate -1.05%, Utilities -0.72%, Consumer Staples -0.04%, Consumer Discretionary +0.14%, Communication Services +0.31%, Health +0.32%, Industrials +0.50%, Financials +0.54%, Technology +0.89%, Materials +1.97%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Continued short squeeze
OIL:
– OPEC rumors of increasing production SMOKED oil
BONDS:
US 1-MO: 4.725 +0.04
US 6-MO: 4.414 +0.021
US 1-YR: 3.993 +0.072
US 5-YR: 3.567 +0.041
US 10-YR: 3.798 +0.017
US 30-YR: 4.13 -0.005
2’s/10’s: 0.17 -0.06
CRYPTO
– Highest since July
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbQCO2gM-UY
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBvNufPQ-5o
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Q4_b5zof4c
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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