MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Hamburg Old Exchange
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– The PBOC cut the rate of the medium-term lending facility to 2% from 2.3%; the 30-basis-point cut was the biggest since the bank began using the monetary tool to guide market interest rates in 2016:
– Due to the Fed’s 50bps rate cut which has already translated into the cheapest mortgage borrowing costs in two years, applications to refinance mortgages surged for a second week: the Mortgage Bankers Association’s refinancing index (whose data covers more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US) soared 20.3% in the week ended Sept. 20 to the highest level since April 2022 following a 24.2% surge in the previous week, as the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage eased 2 basis points to 6.13%, the eighth straight weekly drop and the longest stretch of declines since 2018-2019.
– New home sales better than feared
– Average US 5yr auction
– Riksbank cuts by 25bps, as expected
COMPANIES:
– Micron Technology (MU) released earnings per share at 1.18 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.11 USD.
– Buffet dumps more BoA shares as stake nears key 10% non-reporting level
– Morgan Stanley downgrades Autos (Ford, GM etc)
– NVDA hits 3T Mkt Cap again
GENERAL:
– Euro/Danish Krone hit 14mnth highs
– Euro Bourses close lower
– High end cat 3 Hurricane to Hit Tampa shortly
– Israel prepares for possible ground entry to Lebanon
– Wheat 13-week high, Nat Gas 12-week high
– Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up.
Coming Up:
– German GfK Consumer Sentiment, US Durable Goods, GDP Final (Q2), Core PCE (Q2), IJC
Speakers:
– SNB’s Jordan; ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel; Fed’s Powell, Williams, Collins, Kugler, Bowman, Barr, Kashkari, Cook
MAJORS:
DX:
– Dollar erased post China stimulus weakness:
No Fed speak or tier 1 data, with only new home sales (Aug) slightly better than expected. However, that is not the case for Thursday as there is a deluge of Fed speak, culminating in appearances from Chair Powell and NY Fed’s Williams, in addition to jobless claims and durable goods.
AUD:
– Aussie was already a touch softer in wake of soft inflation metrics overnight which put Y/Y CPI within the RBA’s target band on a headline basis (core remains above the top end).
CABLE:
– Comments from BoE’s Greene in the UK morning underlined the cautious stance being taken by the MPC relative to some of its peers within the G10 space.
EQUITIES:
ND Outperformed, thanks to NVDA & META
NVDA hit key Res
EUR:
– Euro Stoxx 50 -0.47% at 4,917, DAX -0.39% at 18,965, CAC 40 -0.50% at 7,596, FTSE 100 -0.17% at 8,319
US:
– SPX -0.19% at 5,722, NDX +0.14% at 19,973, DJIA -0.70% at 41,915, RUT -1.19% at 2,197
Sectors (W to S): Energy -1.9%, Health -0.94%, Financials -0.6%, Materials -0.6%, Industrials -0.46%, Real Estate -0.4%, Consumer Discretionary -0.38%, Communication Services -0.04%, Consumer Staples -0.03%, Technology +0.5%, Utilities +0.54%
GOLD/SILVER:
Despite Dollar strength, Gold inched to a record high
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures declined more than 2.5% to settle at $69.70 per barrel on Wednesday, after touching a three-week high of $71.6 in the prior session.
The decline came as concerns about supply disruptions from Libya diminished after rival factions agreed on a process to appoint a central bank governor, a key step in resolving disputes over oil revenues and production. This development eased fears about Libya’s oil output, which had been significantly reduced.
At the same time, despite China’s boldest stimulus measures since the pandemic, analysts warned that further fiscal intervention would be necessary to boost economic activity and fuel demand in the world’s largest crude importer.
On the other hand, declining crude inventories in the US and escalating tensions in the Middle East offered some support to the market. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels for the week ending September 20, significantly surpassing expectations of a 1.4 million-barrel draw.
BONDS:
US 1-MO: 4.682 +0.01
US 6-MO: 4.393 +0.005
US 1-YR: 3.929 +0.024
US 5-YR: 3.529 +0.05
US 10-YR: 3.791 +0.055
US 30-YR: 4.145 +0.056
2’s/10’s: 0.23 +0.01
Now at its steepest since June 2022
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8yyk08
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZt7J0iaUD0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wta6isxZlwQ
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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