MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Vienna Bourse 1907
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– Mixed US CPI, Core M/M hotter, headline Y/Y cooler, rest as expected
– The monthly core CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.3%, led by shelter, with investors anticipating it would stay at 0.2%. Meanwhile, annual headline inflation rate slowed more than expected to 2.5% and the core rate steadied at 3.2% as anticipated
– The odds for a 25bps rate reduction by the Fed next week increased to about 80% from 70% before the release
– Strong US 10yr auction
COMPANIES:
– IBM increased to a 11-year high of 207.00 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, IBM gained 8.51%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 40.35%.
– IBM (IBM) said on Wednesday it expects a pre-tax charge of nearly $2.7 billion in the third quarter, related to a transaction involving the transfer of some of its pension plan obligations to a unit of Prudential Financial
– US govt weighs exports of NVDA chips to Saudi Arabia
GENERAL:
– Harris now has a slight edge in many national polls. The New York Times has Harris ahead, with 49% odds compared to Trump’s 47%, while Project FiveThirtyEight and ABC give the vice president a 47% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 44.3%.
However, on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction betting market, Harris and Trump are tied, with each having a 49% chance of being elected the next president of the United States.
– Oil & natgas production halted on Hurricane Francine; Smaller EIA crude build than expected, but contrast from private inventory draw
– Natural gas increased to an 8-week high of 2.30 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas gained 4.79%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 23.92%.
– Top commodity gainers are Cocoa (6.54%), Rice (1.72%) and Lumber (1.56%). Biggest losers are Orange Juice (-6.09%), Corn (-5.77%) and Cheese (-2.36%).
– Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat
Coming Up:
– Swedish CPI, Spanish HICP (F), US IJC, PPI (F)
– ECB Policy Announcement; Norges Bank Regional Network (Q3); IEA OMR
Speakers:
– ECB’s Lagarde; BoJ’s Tamura
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was flat on Wednesday, but that only tells half the story, as it was initially weighed on by Yen’s strength in the backdrop of the Presidential debate.
On the latter, the majority, highlighted by betting markets and a CNN poll, suggested Harris won vs Trump and her candidacy is largely seen as USD-negative given expectations of easier Fed policy (compared to Trump).
The Index hit a low of 101.260, but thereafter was supported by the US CPI report, where the core M/M metric came in hotter-than-expected and saw the odds of a 50bps cut next week dwindle from around 30% to 15%. This took DXY back above the 101.50 mark and eclipsed Tuesday’s 101.76 peak, to a high of 101.81. Report courtesy of newsquark.
AUD:
– Aussie was seemingly buoyed by the turnaround in risk, although that did not extend its Antipodean counterpart. For the record, RBA Assistant Governor Hunter was on the wires overnight and noted Australia’s economy is moving through a turning point and that turning points are innately challenging and tough.
EUR/GBP
– EUR was flat, and the cross within very tight parameters (1.1003-54) as participants await the pivotal ECB meeting on Thursday, followed by President Lagarde’s press conference
YEN:
– JPY saw slight gains against the Buck, but markedly retreated from the cross hitting a YTD low of 140.72 following risk aversion overnight and BoJ’s Nakagawa comments. However, the Yen then fell victim to the Dollar in the wake of the US CPI report, and thereafter the improving risk sentiment to sit towards the top of crosses daily range, 142.54, at pixel time.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: +0.34% at 18,328, FTSE 100: -0.15% at 8,194, CAC 40: -0.14% at 7,397, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.33% at 4,763
US:
– SPX +1.07% at 5,554, NDX +2.17% at 19,237, DJIA +0.31% at 40,862, RUT +0.31% at 2,104
Sectors (W to S): Energy -0.93%, Consumer Staples -0.88%, Financials -0.39%, Health -0.25%, Real Estate -0.23%, Industrials +0.21%, Materials +0.27%, Utilities +0.34%, Communication Services +1.03%, Consumer Discretionary +1.32%, Technology +3.25%
GOLD/SILVER:
Nothing of note to report.
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures gained 2.4% to settle at $67.3 on Wednesday, recovering some ground after hitting a near three-year low in the prior session.
Tuesday’s sharp decline followed OPEC’s decision to lower its demand growth forecast for the second time in two months, alongside slowing crude oil imports from China in 2024.
Still, oil prices remained near their lowest point since May 2023, despite a smaller-than-expected inventory build. US crude inventories rose by 0.83 million barrels, below the anticipated 1 million, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected. Additionally, the EIA reduced its oil price projections for Q4 and 2025 after OPEC’s continued downward revisions in demand forecasts.
Concerns persist over weakening demand in key markets, particularly China, where the rise of electric vehicles has dampened consumption.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Francine is strengthening in the western Gulf of Mexico and poses a threat to refinery operations along the Gulf Coast
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/H5bf7J4oShI
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oST77VRHXt0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7FbQSp5caA
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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