MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Powell sticks to script
– Crypto surges again
– Haley concedes to Trump
– ADP rises, but misses expectations;
– UK Budget as expected;
– NYCB USD 1bln capital raise

DOLLAR DX: Down: 103.32           -0.4% (103.88 – 103.16) Off lows
– AUD Up: 65.63                              +0.9% (64.79 – 65.77) Off Highs
– EUR Down: 91.75                          -0.35% (92.17 – 91.60) Off lows
– GBP Up: 127.30                             +0.2% (126.90 – 127.60) Mid to highs
– JPY Down: 149.43                         -0.4% (149.86 – 149.10) Off lows

GOLD Up:                                         $2154 +0.6% ($2132 – $2160) Highs
DOW/ES/ND:                                    38720 +0.3%, 5113 +0.5%, 18040 +0.6%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH:                          +3000/+5% 66500, 335/+9.5% 3850
CRUDE Up:                                        $79.13 +1.13% ($78.37 – $80.62) Mid-Low

Upcoming:

AU Trade
CH Trade
GE Industrial Orders
US Challenger Layoffs, International Trade, Initial Jobless Claims,
CA Trade
JAP Household Spending

Speakers:

– ECB Lagarde
– Fed Powell, Mester

Earnings: Lufthansa, Merck, Hugo Boss, Entain, Aviva, Costco, Marvell

MAJORS:

DX: 
Dollar sold off through the session to see the DXY hit a low of 103.19 before rebounding marginally into the US close. There was a lot to digest on Wednesday, including Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony, which largely repeated what was said in January (cautious on rushing into rate cuts), while the latest JOLTS fell by more than expected and the quits rate also eased, showing signs of easing wage pressures. ADP Employment rose less than expected
DOLLAR DX: Down: 103.32           -0.4% (103.88 – 103.16) Off lows

No call post yest misread of conditions

10 –

AUD:
US stocks rebounded from the Tuesday weakness and as the Dollar was sold. Australian GDP rose by 1.5% Y/Y in Q4, above the 1.4% estimate, but just 0.2% Q/Q, beneath the 0.3% consensus.
AUD Up: 65.63                                 +0.9% (64.79 – 65.77) Off Highs

No call post yest misread of conditions

6

GBP/EUR
GBP was bid vs the Dollar but sold vs the Euro, with the UK’s budget ultimately having little sway on the Pound, with the chancellor reducing national insurance by 2p, as was touted, to avoid an inflationary reaction to a personal income tax cut.
GBP Up: 127.30                +0.2% (126.90 – 127.60) Mid to highs
JPY Down: 149.43                           -0.4% (149.86 – 149.10) Off lows

No call post yest misread of conditions

12-

EUR
Data in Europe was mixed with Eurozone retail sales rising M/M as expected, construction PMIs rising slightly, while German exports surged 6.3% M/M (exp. 1.5%). Attention now on Thursday’s ECB and German industrial output figures.
EUR Down: 91.75                            -0.35% (92.17 – 91.60) Off lows

No call post yest misread of conditions

9-
YEN:
Yen saw notable gains vs the Dollar on a slew of hawkish source reports for the BoJ which helped USD/JPY fall sub 150.00 to lows of 149.10. On the reports, JiJi said that at the March BoJ meeting, some attendees are likely to say that lifting negative rates is reasonable, and at least one of the nine BoJ members argues that lifting in March is appropriate, however, if there is no majority, then the policy change will not be made until April or later. Separately, Bloomberg sources reported the BoJ is having differing views among members on the timing of a rate move, and officials are reportedly gaining confidence on stronger wage growth. The report also added the BoJ will reach its decision at the last minute.
JPY Down: 149.43                           -0.4% (149.86 – 149.10) Off lows

No call post yest misread of conditions

1

GOLD & SILVER:

““WATCH FOR FOMO”
Yest mkt report

Another solid session building on Yest’s strength.
Powell stressed that rate cuts will depend on the path of the economy and data will determine when cuts commence. On inflation, he repeated the Fed is not looking for inflation to go all the way down to 2%, but it does need to see more evidence, and that means some good inflation readings. He explained that the Fed is not looking for better inflation readings than what has already been, but for more of what has been seen. Powell said that if the economy evolves as the Fed hopes, rates will need to come down significantly over the coming years (we get a fresh set of Fed forecasts at the March 20th FOMC). A lot of the Fed Chair’s remarks were repeats, showing that little has changed his view since the January FOMC and slew of hot economic prints, but he is yet to commit to when the first rate cut will likely occur, with money markets not fully pricing in a 25bp cut until July, with June at an 80% implied probability.
GOLD Up:                                         $2154 +0.6% ($2132 – $2160) Highs

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.51% 5,105
– NDX +0.67% 18,018
– DJI +0.20% 38,661
– RUT +0.70% at 2,068

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.06% 17,726.65
– FTSE 100: +0.43% 7,679.31
– CAC 40: +0.28% 7,954.74
– ES50: +0.47% 4,916.15

SECTORS (S to W): Utilities Utilities +0.97%, Technology +0.91%, Consumer Staples +0.8%, Materials +0.75%, Health +0.71%, Real Estate +0.55%, Industrials +0.5%, Financials +0.41%, Energy +0.34%, Communication Services -0.17%, Consumer Discretionary -0.39%

STOCKS
New York Community Bancorp +8%: Whipsawed on reports it was seeking to raise equity capital in efforts to shore up confidence in the bank; which it later confirmed, where it will raise over USD 1bln in equity led by former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s firm, Liberty Capital. After sources, NYCB saw losses of near 50%, triggering a stock halt, but when the details emerged the stock rallied back to positive territory.
Morgan Stanley +11%: Laying off 9% of staff at its China asset management unit amid shrinking assets and operating losses.
Foot Locker -30%: Reported a holiday-quarter loss, issued weak guidance and said it’s behind on meeting its profitability goals. Note, EPS, revenue, and SSS were much better-than-feared

OIL
:

WTI (J4) SETTLES USD 0.98 HIGHER AT 79.13/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLES USD 0.92 HIGHER AT 82.96/BBL

Oil prices were higher on Tuesday, benefitting from the weaker Dollar and peaking on the heels of the bullish US energy inventory data. WTI and Brent futures hit highs for the session at USD 80.67/bbl and 84.05/bbl, respectively, late in the NY morning after the EIA reported a crude stock build of 1.4mln bbls that was more than offset by the net draw of 8.6mln bbls in the products. That drawdown of the products came despite refinery utilisation surging 3.4% in the latest week. The crude benchmarks then faded somewhat into the NY afternoon as the Dollar selling lost momentum. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia announced price increases for its sales to Asia for April earlier in the session. Also for Saudi, Reuters reported Aramco and UAE’s ADNOC are in talks to invest in a US LNG project, stepping up competition with oil majors and regional rival Qatar. Oil report courtesy of newsquark


BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.364 +0.002
US 6-MO 5.305 -0.003
US 1-YR 4.965 +0.005
US 5-YR 4.12 -0.018
US 10-YR 4.108 -0.029
US 30-YR 4.242 -0.032

2YR/10YR -0.45

CRYPTO
New Spot ETH ETF’s are currently in discussion seeing ETH the star performer today up 7% vs 4 for BTC.
Massive inflows are still flowing into the ETF which allows people (Financial advisors) to buy a BTC based fund on the Equity market vs opening up a crypto wallet.
Over $10B has flowed through to the 10 new ETF’s which are record nmbers for ETF’s under 2 months old.
‘Talk’ is with ETF fund inflow (Blackrock had to purchase $11,000 coins Tuesday to allocate its $735 million in new capital) there is also a pre-April BTC halving coming up which may be a ‘sell the news’ so the ramp is expected pre.
Fun fact, according to coinbase there are only 5,000  coins between current mkt pricing and the $80k level.
Expect future volatility.

No call

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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