MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Antwerp Bourse. The world’s first Bourse.
From 1531 to 1661, it was the site of the world’s first dedicated commodity exchange. conceived as a rectangular square with galleries covered on four sides, built on top of a street intersection. For half a century this exchange would be the focal point of European trade and the model for cities with similar ambitions.
On the initiative of Thomas Gresham, the representative of the English crown in Antwerp, the Royal Exchange, London was opened in 1565 on this model. It was also called “the Bourse” until Queen Elizabeth I, after a visit on January 23, 1570, changed its name to the Royal Exchange. The Middelburg stock exchange was opened in 1592, then Rotterdam in 1595 and Amsterdam in 1611.
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics):
DATA:
– China’s consumer prices rose faster than expected in July, driven mostly by a surge in food/pork prices, even as core inflation continued to sink, raising concerns over persistent deflation in the world’s second-largest economy
– CPI rose 0.5% YoY In July year on year, beating the median forecast of a 0.3%
– This was the biggest since February, when prices grew 0.7% (5 months)
– Boston US Fed Pres Collins cuts soon ‘ if inflation continues on its downward path amid a strong labor market’.
– Schmidt tows same line (cut soon)
– Canada’s unemployment rate held at 6.4%, its highest in over two and a half years. While this figure was below market expectations, it still signaled a softening labor market as net employment unexpectedly fell for a second month and the labor force participation rate fell to a 1998-low when excluding shocks from the pandemic. Additionally, ongoing contraction in Canadian manufacturing and modest economic growth have increased the likelihood of more easing by the BoC
COMPANIES:
– Cisco will cut thousands of jobs in a second round of layoffs this year as the U.S. networking equipment maker shifts focus to higher-growth areas, including cybersecurity and AI.
– The number of people affected could be similar to or slightly higher than the 4,000 employees Cisco laid off in February, and will likely be announced as early as Wednesday with the company’s fourth-quarter results
GENERAL:
– Rate cut expectations:
On the week:
– You’d be forgiven for thinking it was a quiet week. You’d be wrong:
VIX this week.
– Apple: In the wake of Berkshire’s sale, passive funds tracking these indexes may now have to buy as much as $40 billion of Apple stock when they next rebalance. That’s triple the average daily trading volume of the company’s shares over the past month.
– Cadbury doubles prices of candy bars (increase cocoa and input costs)
– Passenger plane goes down in Brazil:
https://x.com/siganahoum/status/1821956834757955747/video/1
– Cocoa 7-week HIGH (+7.31%), Nat Gas 8-month HIGH, Coffee/Corn/OJ drop 5%
– CRYPTO/Equities up smalls, Gold/Silver/DX UNCH, Treasuries UP
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.14 UNCH (103.25 – 103.03) MID
– AUD down: 65.75 -0.23% (66.05 – 65.68) LOWS
– EUR UNCH: 91.56 UNCH (91.64 – 91.47) MID
– GBP up: 127.61 +0.13% (127.27 – 127.74) Off HIGHS
– JPY down: 146.63 -0.36% (147.54 – 146.31) Off LOWS
GOLD up: $2468 +0.2% (2456 – 2476) MID
DOW/ES/ND UNCH/up/up: 39644 UNCH, 5371 +0.4%, 18612 +0.45%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up/UNCH: 60675 +2.11%, 2589 +0.5%
CRUDE up: $77.03 +1.1% (75.88 – 77.09) Off HIGHS
Coming Up:
– US CPI, Retail Sales
– AU Jobs
– China activity data and Japan GDP
– UK CPI, Jobs and Retail Sales
Speakers:
– RBA’s Hauser
MAJORS:
DX:
ALL about the Yen this week
The dollar index snapped its three-day rally on Friday, ending the week back where it started, albeit way off the 102.15 weekly lows set on Monday.
Data releases concerning the buck were light with Fed-speak on late Thursday, the center of attention, specifically Fed’s Goolsbee saying they need to see more than payrolls and more than one month participants’, while Fed’s Schmid said he is more confident that inflation is on path to target. Collins also believes it will be appropriate to begin easing soon, noting that the July jobs report was softer than expected, and it does warrant careful attention, but she would caution against overemphasizing any one or two later releases.
Looking ahead, the focus is set on next week for US CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and UoM.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.14 UNCH (103.25 – 103.03) MID
EUR
Nothing of note (view the range!)
EUR UNCH: 91.56 UNCH (91.64 – 91.47) MID
GBP:
Cable incurred a fourth week of straight losses ahead of a myriad of UK data in the upcoming week, namely, CPI, GDP Prelim, and Retail Sales.
GBP up: 127.61 +0.13% (127.27 – 127.74) Off HIGHS
AUD/KIWI:
Eyes fixed on the RBNZ Interest Rate decision (Wed), where RBNZ pricing puts roughly an 80% chance of a 25bps cut, although analyst views are mixed, with 19 out of 31 surveyed by Reuters expecting rates to be maintained at 5.5%, although 12 see a 25bp cut.
AUD down: 65.75 -0.23% (66.05 – 65.68) LOWS
YEN:
Nothing of note (except continual unwinding).
JPY down: 146.63 -0.36% (147.54 – 146.31) Off LOWS
GOLD/SILVER:
– Bullion investors turned their attention to next week’s release of key inflation data – including the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) – to gauge how aggressively the Fed might cut interest rates in September.
The yellow metal, which was on track for its largest weekly decline since June 7, hovered around $2,430 per ounce in early Friday trading, up $4.36. After staging a come-back a day earlier with gains of more than 3%, silver had dipped back into negative territory, down $0.07 at $27.48 per ounce.
GOLD up: $2468 +0.2% (2456 – 2476) MID
EQUITIES:
S&P & ND back to UNCH on the week, DOW down small:
MAG 7 almost finished UNCH after -8% open Monday:
EUR:
– DAX +0.1% 17,702
– FTSE +0.3% 8,168
– CAC +0.3% 7,270
– ES50 +0.1% 4,675
US:
– SPX +0.47% 5,344
– NDX +0.54% 18,513
– DJIA +0.13% 39,498
– RUT -0.17% 2,081.
Sectors (W to S): Materials -0.1%, Industrials flat, Consumer Staples +0.2%, Utilities +0.3%, Energy +0.3%, Financials +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Health +0.5%, Real Estate +0.5%, Technology +0.6%, Communication Services +1.0%.
STOCKS
– Expedia (+10%) – Beat on the top and bottom line.
– Paramount (+0.88%) – Profit was well above expectations, and sees the Skydance transaction closing in H1 2025. Moreover, it plans to cut its US workforce by roughly 15% to realise USD 500mln in savings.
OIL:
– Reversed ALL Payrolls puke this week
CRUDE up: $77.03 +1.1% (75.88 – 77.09) Off HIGHS
BONDS:
-Treasury yields were up on the week (with the short-end underperforming – 2Y +18bps, 30Y +12bps on the week), but including Friday’s post-payrolls plunge, yields are still down with the short-end outperforming:
US 1-MO 5.373 +0.033
US 6-MO 4.988 +0.012
US 1-YR 4.492 +0.007
US 5-YR 3.794 -0.039
US 10-YR 3.942 -0.055
US 30-YR 4.222 -0.064
2YR/10YR -0.11
– The yield curve (2s10s) briefly dis-inverted on Monday, but was flatter (more inverted) by the end of the week
CRYPTO
– Wild week ending UNCH
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up/UNCH: 60675 +2.11%, 2589 +0.5%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BmtwzTHGwec
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2nCugGQZO0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZXoErL2124
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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