MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
NYSE 1873
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics):
DATA:
– markets are still betting on a larger 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September and over 100 bps of total easing for the year.
– Initial US jobless claims ACT 233,000 vs EST 240,000, least in 4-weeks
– 30Y auction tailed by 3.1bps, the exact same as yesterday’s 10Y sale, and predictably yields spiked after both.
– today’s 30Y auction tailed by 3.1bps, the exact same as yesterday’s 10Y sale, and predictably yields spiked after both.
– rate-cut expectations have now retraced all of the post-payrolls spike
– VIX came off
COMPANIES:
– Eli Lilly (+10%) released earnings per share at 3.92 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.75 USD.
– Monster Beverage Corp -10% on declining demand
– Warner Brothers -9% on $9.1B CNN write down (become partisan, people don’t believe you. Shock).
– Delta (+6%) warns $380m hit from Crowdstrike
GENERAL:
– Hawkish RBA Governor Bullock
– Euro Bourses close flat
– Japan hit by 7.1 quake
– Mortgage Rates plummet to lowest level in a year
– Investors Pull $2.2 Billion From ARKK In 2024 As Cathie Wood Underperforms Nasdaq By -30% YTD
– Ukrainian offensive continues, pushing 10km into Russia
– The Minnesota National Guard has disputed Governor Tim Walz’s military biography, saying that his claims of retiring at the rank of command sergeant major is untrue
– Silver +3.24%, Dutch/UK Nat Gas +4%, Corn -5.5%, Cocoa -4%
– CRYPTO (Lead by ETHER) SURGE BACK, Crude up again on allaying of economic fears, Bond Yields Higher, Stocks/Gold Higher
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.22 UNCH (102.91 – 103.54) MID
– AUD UP: 65.88 +1% (65.24 – 65.94) HIGHS
– EUR UNCH: 91.58 UNCH (91.34 – 91.86) MID
– GBP up: 127.45 +0.4% (126.66 – 127.52) HIGHS
– JPY up: 147.13 +0.28% (145.64 – 147.48) Off HIGHS
GOLD up: $2462 +1.3% (2431 – 2465) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND up: 39560 +1.7%, 5338 +2.1%, 18464 +2.7%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH SURGE: 59470 +8.25%, 2574 +9.5%
CRUDE up: $76.08 +1.1% (74.64 – 76.46) Off HIGHS
Coming Up:
– Chinese CPI, Norwegian CPI, Canadian Jobs
Speakers:
EARNINGS:
– Generali
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar Index climbed higher with gains coming to fruition after weekly Initial Jobless Claims data unveiled a lower figure than expected. A large factor of the drop was in Texas, which reverted some of its earlier rise induced by July’s Hurricane Beryl. Treasury yields rallied on the back of the data, buoying the dollar index’s move higher to a summit of 103.54, albeit, gains have trimmed since.
US CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and UoM data now the focus.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.22 UNCH (102.91 – 103.54) MID
EUR
Nothing of note
EUR UNCH: 91.58 UNCH (91.34 – 91.86) MID
GBP:
Nothing of note
GBP up: 127.45 +0.4% (126.66 – 127.52) HIGHS
AUD:
Upside arising from a hawkish tone set by RBA’s Governor Bullock: based on current information, the RBA does not anticipate rates coming down quickly and the board considered a hike on Tuesday and will not hesitate to hike if needed, suggesting expectations for a rate cut are overblown.
AUD/USD has snapped back the heavy losses it faced earlier in the week, seeing a peak today of 0.6590.
Rabobank notes that the hawkishness of the RBA combined with the underlying resilience of the Australian economy suggests that the AUD is likely to perform well, assuming market conditions normalise.
AUD UP: 65.88 +1% (65.24 – 65.94) HIGHS
YEN:
Japan was hit by earthquakes of a magnitude of 7.1 with a tsunami reaching Japan’s South Western Miyazaki prefecture – albeit there was little market reaction
JPY up: 147.13 +0.28% (145.64 – 147.48) Off HIGHS
GOLD/SILVER:
Gold prices soared above the $2,400 mark on Thursday morning as better than expected jobless claims data and continued stocks rally on Wall Street helped ease fears the country was dipping into a recession.
Meanwhile, the downside of owning the yellow metal was blunted by escalating tensions in the Middle East and a bullish outlook by traders that the Fed will move to reduce interest rates by at least 50 basis points in September, followed by at least another aggressive cut later this year.
The yellow metal had already gained more than 1.4% in early Thursday trading, up $33.29 at $2,418 per ounce. On Wednesday, gold snapped a four-session losing streak to pare losses from a broad sell-off on Wall Street earlier in the week that spilled over to precious metals. Silver also got a long sought-after shot in the arm, rising more than 3% as the white metal rallied $0.80 to trade at $27.45 per ounce.
GOLD up: $2462 +1.3% (2431 – 2465) HIGHS
EQUITIES:
Nasdaq Outperformed
Still though lower than pre-payrolls
Nasdaq hit technical levels before retracing
Dow at 50D MA before rolling over
S&P at 100D MA
EUR:
– DAX +0.3% 17,666
– FTSE -0.3% 8,145
– CAC -0.3% 7,247
– ES50 flat 4,667
US:
– SPX +2.3% 5,319
– NDX +3.1% 18,414
– DJIA +1.8% 39, 447
– RUT +2.4% 2,084
Sectors (W to S): Utilities +0.2%, Consumer Staples +0.9%, Real Estate +0.9%, Materials +1.6%, Financials +1.6%, Energy +2.1%, Consumer Discretionary +2.1%, Health +2.3%, Industrials +2.3%, Communication Services +2.4%, Technology +3.3%
STOCKS
– Under Armour (+20%) – Surprise profit per share and revenue topped, alongside lifting FY adj. operating income view.
OIL:
West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.3% to settle above $76 a barrel. Israel continues to brace for an attack from Iran, though comments from the Iranian president during a phone call with his French counterpart hinted at a diplomatic path to de-escalation.
Oil has regrouped after slumping to a seven-month low on Monday amid a rout in global equity markets. A halt to crude production from Libya’s biggest field has helped underpin the gains, while a rare cross-border attack by Ukrainian troops into Russia added to geopolitical tensions.
“A recovery in the stock market is also easing some recessionary demand fears,” as well as retaliation expectations which have brought back geopolitical fears of tighter supplies, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities.
Official data out of the US on Wednesday showed crude stockpiles fell for a sixth week to their lowest since February. That may alleviate some of the concerns about faltering demand in the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity, though inventories built up at the key Cushing storage hub and in gasoline.
CRUDE up: $76.08 +1.1% (74.64 – 76.46) Off HIGHS
BONDS:
– Treasury yields surged higher once again, now back above the pre-payrolls level (for all but the 2Y yield):
The 10Y yield surged up to 4.00% (and 2Y moved above it):
US 1-MO 5.344 +0.008
US 6-MO 4.974 +0.027
US 1-YR 4.474 +0.043
US 5-YR 3.827 +0.033
US 10-YR 3.992 +0.027
US 30-YR 4.282 +0.022
2YR/10YR -0.04
CRYPTO
The pullback just experienced in Bitcoin & Crypto markets did not happen in a vacuum. Global markets collective had a major shakeout this week. Furthermore, key data signals that would outline a cycle top are not yet flashing.
The BTC & crypto markets are still tied to the risk-asset narrative and regularly can be seen to be the first to react to speculative uncertainty in markets. Bitcoin is a 24/7 liquid market and thus is not bound by the confining & now arbitrary limits of a 9-5 trading day.
– The demand for bitcoin in July showed ETFs purchasing over 51,104 Bitcoin with only 13,950 Bitcoin being produced.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH SURGE: 59470 +8.25%, 2574 +9.5%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0jXjC0rgLs
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaCdHfSInTM
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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