MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics):
“I wouldn’t expect this to be a durable bounce,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.
“There is likely to remain volatility into October, November. Any counter trend rally today and persisting for a few weeks would be something to trim risk into.”
– Expected 24/25 rate cuts
– Hawkish RBA hold
– Average US 3yr auction
GENERAL:
– Japanese earnings rise at fastest pace since ’97
– Stellar German industrial orders
– X & Rumble sue advertisers.
– Aramco CEO bullish on oil (shock, or should I say… frack?)
– Steel 7 year low
– Tin 4-month low, lumbar 10-week high, OATS UP 6.14%! Corn -4.81%
– Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 102.90 +0.21% (103.22 – 102.80) Off LOWS
– AUD up: 65.19 +0.33% (64.73 – 65.42) Off HIGHS
– EUR up: 91.48 +0.23% (91.25 – 91.68) MID
– GBP down: 126.89 -0.66% (127.87 – 126.75) LOWS
– JPY UP: 144.59 -+0.58% (146.20 – 144.09) Off LOWS
GOLD down: $2432 -0.50% (2455 – 2422) Off LOWS
DOW/ES/ND down/up/up: 39057 -0.22%, 5249 +0.6%, 18099 +0.48%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 56377 +3.57%, 2491 +2.91%
CRUDE down: $72.96 -0.33% (74.17 – 72.23) MID
Coming Up:
– German Industrial Production, Chinese FX Reserves & Trade
Speakers:
– ECB’s Rehn Supply: UK, Germany & US
EARNINGS:
– ABN AMRO, Continental, Commerzbank, Novo Nordisk, Puma, Siemens Energy, Glencore, Disney
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar Index saw marginal gains on Tuesday, albeit within a narrow range (102.690-103.220) in regards to the moves in the prior three days.
The index hit a high of 103.220 as US-growth fears quelled, given the extreme risk-averse sentiment
seen since the tail end of last week.
Looking ahead, there is a distinct lack of tier 1 data releases, or Fed speak, this week with initial jobless claims and Barkin (2024) (Thurs) arguably the highlights.
DOLLAR DX up: 102.90 +0.21% (103.22 – 102.80) Off LOWS
EUR
EZ retail sales for June declined more than expected M/M, but German industrial orders were significantly better than forecasted, with not much scheduled for the week ahead.
EUR up: 91.48 +0.23% (91.25 – 91.68) MID
GBP:
GBP down: 126.89 -0.66% (127.87 – 126.75) LOWS
AUD:
AUD up: 65.19 +0.33% (64.73 – 65.42) Off HIGHS
YEN:
JPY was the distinct G10 underperformer against the Greenback, but of course comes after significant Yen strength in recent days. Highlighting this, the cross reached a peak of 146.36 today (vs a low of 143.63), but just last Wednesday USD/JPY was at 155.21. As such, the Yen ‘weakness’ was a function of the recent overbuying of haven assets and a slight retracement of recent moves, as opposed to anything Yen specific.
Overnight, Japanese markets rebounded from Monday’s turmoil, whilst Japan’s MOF, FSA and BoJ held a meeting on market volatility, but telegraphed little in terms of details. Japanese wage metrics overnight were also much hotter than expected, rising at the fastest pace since 1997.
JPY UP: 144.59 -+0.58% (146.20 – 144.09) Off LOWS
GOLD/METALS:
GOLD down: $2432 -0.50% (2455 – 2422) Off LOWS
EQUITIES:
– S&P perfectly to its 100DMA… and immediately reversed
EUR:
– DAX: -0.10% at 17,321, FTSE 100: +0.23% at 8,027, CAC 40: -0.27% at 7,130, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.08% at 4,575
US:
– SPX +1.04% at 5,240, NDX +1.02% at 18,078, DJI +0.76% at 38,998, RUT +1.23% at 2,064.
Sectors (W to S): Real Estate +2.30%, Financials +1.46%, Communication Services +1.22%, Industrials +1.18%, Technology +1.11%, Consumer Discretionary +1.04%, Utilities +0.82%, Materials +0.56%, Consumer Staples +0.55%, Health +0.48%, Energy +0.40%.
OIL:
WTI (U4) SETTLES USD 0.26 HIGHER AT 73.20/BBL; BRENT (V4) SETTLES USD 0.18 HIGHER AT 76.48/BBL
The crude complex was choppy on Tuesday, and ultimately settled marginally higher, as it attempt to claw back some of its recent US-growth fear induced losses. On the day, WTI and Brent sold off overnight and through the European morning to hit lows of USD 72.20/bbl and 75.58/bbl, respectively, before gaining through the US session as sentiment improved to hit peaks of 74.56/bbl and 77.85/bbl. In addition, energy giant Saudi Aramco’s CEO was bullish on oil in wake of earnings (more details below). In geopolitics, market participants still await Iran/Lebanon’s retaliation against Israel, whereby Hezbollah’s leader recently stated their response is coming, and it will be strong and effective. Moreover, CNN sources reported that US is beginning to see some Iranian preparations for a potential military response to Israel. On the production footing, Libya’s El Sharara (300k BPD) oil field has begun gradually reducing production due to a force majeure, although reports on Monday suggested that the El Sharara fields output has fully halted production. Looking ahead, traders await the weekly private inventory data after-hours, where current expectations are (bbls): Crude -0.7mln, Distillate +0.2mln, Gasoline -1.0mln.
ARAMCO: Post-earnings, Aramco President stated that strong demand returns to market fundamentals coinciding with the entry of the driving season, and they expect oil demand to increase in the coming months. Furthermore, he noted strong oil demand from China may continue during H2 ’24, while in July and early August, saw growth in jet-fuel demand and significant growth in China. Looking ahead, Aramco CEO expects global oil demand of 104.7mln BPD in 2024 (vs 104.5mln in OPEC July MOMR), seeing more plans to replenish strategic inventories which will aid healthy demand.
EIA STEO: Leaves 2024 world oil demand growth unchanged at a 1.1mln BPD Y/Y increase, and lowers forecast for 2025 world oil demand growth to see growth of 1.6mln BPD (prev. 1.8mln BPD). Oil report courtesy of newsquark
CRUDE down: $72.96 -0.33% (74.17 – 72.23) MID
BONDS:
The 2y yield tested up to 4.00%
US 1-MO 5.334
US 6-MO 4.947
US 1-YR 4.499
US 5-YR 3.742
US 10-YR 3.9
US 30-YR 4.19
2YR/10YR -0.8
CRYPTO
– CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 56377 +3.57%, 2491 +2.91%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUyJoojCLnc
Joke of the Day:
https://www.tiktok.com/@funnyfunnystandup/video/7215629136327478533?lang=en
What, Will?
https://www.tiktok.com/@dailymail/video/7397907536264940843
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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