MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Rotterdam Bourse 1742
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– CORE PCE:
– PCE 0.2% MoM in line with estimates of 0.2% and up from the 0.1% (0.0788%) last month
– PCE 2.5% YoY, in line with estimates of 2.5%, and unchanged from last month’s 2.5% YoY increase
– Core PCE 0.2% MoM in line with estimates of 0.2%, and unchanged from last month’s 0.2% (0.1818%) MoM increase
– Core PCE 2.6% YoY, missing estimates of a 2.7% increase and unchanged from last month.
– Final August Consumer Sentiment print:
– ACT 67.9, missing estimates of 68.1, but still above the July print of 66.4.
– The modest rebound was entirely thanks to a bounce in expectations which rose to 72.1 from 68.8, while current conditions declined to the lowest since 2022, sliding to 61.3, from 62.7:
– Atlanta Fed GDPNow revised up to 2.5%
– Aussie retail sales miss
– Hot Tokyo CPI
COMPANIES:
– DELL earnings beat
– NXPI raises dividend and buyback
GENERAL:
– Brazil’s Top Court bans X
– Oil smashed on OPEC hike output October
– Tulsi Gabbard Endorses Trump
– US Taxpayers paid $150 BILLION in ONE year for migrants
– Zelensky fires Air Force Commander after US F-16 downed by friendly fire
– Houthis blow up Greek tanker
– Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar down
DOLLAR DX up: 101.70 +0.35% (101.24 – 101.78) HIGHS
– AUD down: 67.68 -0.5% (68.18 – 67.53) Off LOWS
– EUR up: 90.48 +0.27% (90.11 – 90.52) HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.30 -0.28% (132.01 – 131.11) Off LOWS
– JPY up: 146.20 +0.81% (144.75 – 146.25) HIGHS
GOLD Down: $2535 -0.96% (2559 – 2527) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up: 41646 +0.50%, 5658 +0.86%, 19600 +1.07%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH Down: 58968 -0.89%, 2514 -0.81%
CRUDE SMOKED: $73.63 -3% (76.50 – 73.35) LOWS
Coming Up:
– Labour Day US!
– Australia, Japanese, EZ, UK Manufacturing PMI.
Speakers:
MAJORS:
DX:
-Rough month for the Dollar but finishes on a bounce
DOLLAR DX up: 101.70 +0.35% (101.24 – 101.78) HIGHS
EUR/GBP
– The Euro headed for its worst week since April, as downside ensued from dollar strength.
Eurozone inflation was mixed, with Headline Y/Y falling as expected, driven mainly by energy inflation, whereas Core Y/Y was sticker than expected as was Services.
The EZ Unemployment Rate surprisingly ticked lower to 6.4%, and Germany’s unemployment Chg came in well below market expectations.
ECB speak: Villeroy was of interest, noting the market view is reasonable on rates at 2-2.5% in 2025, and it’s fair and wise to expect rate cuts in September. ECB’s Schnabel said, “while risks to growth have increased, a soft landing still looks more likely than a recession”.
EUR/USD set a low of 1.1045, with the daily low of 1.1012 on August 18th in view ahead of a myriad of PMIs in Europe on Monday.
– EUR up: 90.48 +0.27% (90.11 – 90.52) HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.30 -0.28% (132.01 – 131.11) Off LOWS
AUD:
– Aussie weakness stemmed after a miss in Retail Sales, which was unchanged on the month, missing the 0.3% forecast.
– AUD down: 67.68 -0.5% (68.18 – 67.53) Off LOWS
YEN:
– USD/JPY showed little reaction overnight towards the hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI, which now sits just off its session high of 146.24. ING believes “markets are still underestimating the chances of another hike by the BoJ before the end of the year, with only one 8bp priced in by December”. For reference, money markets see the first full 10bps hike in January 2025.
– JPY up: 146.20 +0.81% (144.75 – 146.25) HIGHS
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold rallied to new record highs on the month after the early loss
GOLD Down: $2535 -0.96% (2559 – 2527) LOWS
EQUITIES:
EUR:
DAX -0.03% at 18,908
FTSE 100 -0.04% at 8,377
CAC 40 -0.13% at 7,631
Euro Stoxx 50 -0.18% at 4,957
US:
SPX +1.01% at 5,648
NDX +1.29% at 19,575
DJIA +0.55% at 41,563
RUT +0.67% at 2,218
Sectors (W to S): Consumer Discretionary +1.92%, Industrials +1.11%, Technology +1.06%, Materials +1.02%, Real Estate +0.98%, Financials +0.94%, Communication Services +0.82%, Consumer Staples +0.74%, Health +0.73%, Utilities +0.61%, Energy +0.27%
BONDS:
– Treasuries were aggressively bid on the month led by the short-end (2Y -33bps)
– Dis-inverting 2s30s
BONDS:
US 1-MO 5.268 +0.02
US 6-MO 4.862 +0.003
US 1-YR 4.418 +0.001
US 5-YR 3.708 +0.04
US 10-YR 3.911 +0.044
US 30-YR 4.199 +0.048
2YR/10YR -0.01 +0.02
OIL:
– WTI (V4) SETTLED USD 2.36 LOWER AT 73.55/BBL; BRENT (V4) SETTLED USD 1.14 LOWER AT 78.80/BBL
The crude complex ended the day, and week, in the red as OPEC+ sources weighed. WTI and Brent were largely sideways through the European morning in thin newsflow, but immediate downside ensued after Reuters sources noted that OPEC+ is likely to proceed with a planned gradual oil production increase from October. The sources further added that eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 190k BPD in October, as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer output cuts of 2.2mln bpd, while keeping other cuts in place until end-2025. The plan to raise production remains in place as the loss of Libyan output tightens the market and hopes build that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Elsewhere, newsflow was pretty sparse to end the week as participants await the long weekend out of the US due to Labor Day, although Libya’s NOC stated recent oilfields closures have caused loss of approximately 63% of total oil production. For the record, Baker Hughes rig count saw the total -2, with oil rigs unchanged and nat gas rigs declining by 2. Oil Report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE SMOKED: $73.63 -3% (76.50 – 73.35) LOWS
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin ended the month lower after recovering the early month losses and fading back:
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH Down: 58968 -0.89%, 2514 -0.81%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIxxED6C2Kg
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huobAY7gl30
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPggB4MfPnk
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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