MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Amsterdam Bourse
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– GE Inflation UNDER
– MoM Exp +0.2% Act -0.1%
– YoY Exp +2.2% Act +1.9%
– US GDP QoQ Exp +2.8% Act +3.0%:
– Entirely on the back of personal spending (Errrrrm Dollar General downgrades its forecast…. MASSIVELY!?!?)
– Core PCE QoQ Exp +2.9% Act +2.8% (CORE TOM!)
– Pending Home Sales (record low)
– MoM Exp +1.5% Act -5.5%
– YoY Exp -1.0% Act -8.5%
– Weekly Jobless Exp 237K Act 231K:
COMPANIES:
– Dollar General SMOKED down 30% after the discount retailer cut its outlook
– Expects fiscal 2024 same-store sales growth in the range of 1 – 1.6% vs Exp 2 – 2.7%:
– CIBC (CM) released earnings per share at 1.93 CAD, compared to market expectations of 1.74 CAD.
– JPMorgan increased to an all-time high of 222.30 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, J.P. Morgan Chase gained 5.17%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 49.03%
– American Express increased to an all-time high of 258.86 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, American Express gained 2.22%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 61.56%
– Berkshire Hathaway increased to an all-time high of 466.70 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Berkshire Hathaway gained 6.51%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 30.23%.
– Fiserv increased to an all-time high of 172.64 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Fiserv gained 5.64%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 40.56%.
– NVDA reported Earnings Wed (down 8% overnight, down 6.5% day) showing earnings and Rev grew by +122% YoY
– Rate of growth compared to the prior year was less than half reported in the first 2 quarters of 2024:
– Mkt Cap dropped by $200B
– Apple boosts IPhone orders by 10%
GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses close higher (Italy 4-week highs, CAC/ES50 6-week highs, FTSE 13-week high)
– Rate cuts are also expected by the ECB, solidified by softer-than-expected inflation data from Germany, Spain, and Ireland ahead of the Eurozone’s print due by the end of the week.
– Fitch affirms US at AA+ rating with stable outlook
– Oil jumps on Libyan shutdown
– Xi Jinping meets with US Nat Sec Advisor Jake Sulliven:
– Who won?
– JAP Nippon Steel calls for trade tariffs on Chinese Steel
– Biden STILL on Holiday, 2nd week (Who’s running the country??)
– Lumbar drops on weak US Housing Data.
– Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 101.38 +0.28% (100.53 – 101.57) Off HIGHS
– AUD down: 68 +0.2% (67.65 – 68.24) Off HIGHS
– EUR up: 90.26 +0.4% (89.31 – 90.40) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.64 -0.2% (132.65 – 131.50) Off LOWS
– JPY up: 144.93 +0.35% (143.63 – 145.46) Off HIGHS
GOLD Up: $2564 +.66% (2563 – 2528) Off HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND UP/up/up: 41486 +0.75%, 5618 +0.14%, 19445 +0.15%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH: 59528 UNCH, 2534 UNCH
CRUDE up: $76.02 +2% (77.53– 73.90) MID
Coming Up:
– JAP Unemployment Rate, Tokyo CPI, Indust. Product., Retail Sales
– AU Retail Sales, Housing Credit, Private Sector Credit
– FR Inflation
– GE Employment
– EU Inflation
– IT Inflation
– CAD GDP
– US Core PCE
– CH NBS Manufacturing PMI
Speakers:
– ECB Jochnick
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar Index rose above the 101 handle, with earlier gains in the session kickstarted by Euro Weakness rather than dollar-specific drivers.
Strength in the buck continued once dollar catalysts arrived, IE, a surprise revision higher to Q2 GDP, while Jobless Claims were in line with expectations, once again easing concerns of a cooling labour market. The Dollar Index reached session highs of 101.58, although has since pared slightly.
Fedspeak in the session included Fed’s Barkin (2024 Voter) saying inflation is down, not there yet but is making progress.
Looking forward, attention will be on the Dollar for Friday’s Core PCE, which is expected to rise 2.7% Y/Y and 0.2% M/M, as well as the Chicago PMI.
DOLLAR DX up: 101.38 +0.28% (100.53 – 101.57) Off HIGHS
EUR/GBP
– The Euro saw weakness versus the greenback on Wednesday, with losses arising after the German state CPI cooled more from the prior than was anticipated.
As such, EUR/USD fell from 1.1130 to 1.1089, though it did bounce for some time, amid better-than-expected EU Services, Economic, and Industrial Sentiment for August.
EU final Consumer Confidence fell short of expectations. Losses resumed in the cross after the US data, troughing at lows of 1.1054.
In terms of ECB speak, Holzmann said he is not against lowering rates but one has to be careful, or one could be forced to take a step back. Holzmann added September or at the latest October will be the first month with no more base effects dropping out of inflation.
Nagel pointed towards the risk that a somewhat stronger economic recovery could further delay the return to target.
Upcoming Euro drivers on Friday include HICP Flash (AUG), EZ Unemployment Rate (Jul), German Unemployment Chg SA (Aug), and a text release from ECB’s Schnabel.
– EUR up: 90.26 +0.4% (89.31 – 90.40) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 131.64 -0.2% (132.65 – 131.50) Off LOWS
AUD:
– AUD/USD set a peak on the session of 0.6823, a level not seen since the 1st week of January this year, although, the pair has trimmed gains prior to overnight’s Australian Retail Sales M/M Final for July.
– AUD down: 68 +0.2% (67.65 – 68.24) Off HIGHS
YEN:
– Nothing of note to report
– JPY up: 144.93 +0.35% (143.63 – 145.46) Off HIGHS
GOLD/SILVER:
Rose DESPITE a rise in Bond Yields (Trade there?)
GOLD Up: $2564 +.66% (2563 – 2528) Off HIGHS
EQUITIES:
EUR:
DAX: +0.64% at 18,903, FTSE 100: +0.43% at 8,380, CAC 40: +0.84% at 7,641, Euro Stoxx 50: +1.06% at 4,965
US:
SPX flat at 5,592, NDX -0.13% at 19,325, DJIA +0.59% at 41,335, RUT +0.66% at 2,203
Sectors (W to S): Technology -0.74%, Consumer Staples -0.47%, Real Estate -0.40%, Communication Services -0.21%, Consumer Discretionary +0.20%, Health +0.21%, Utilities +0.55%, Materials +0.56%, Industrials +0.70%, Financials +0.85%, Energy +1.27%.
BONDS:
– The 10Y hit a one week high rising just shy of 3.90%, having broken out of a triangle formation to the upside, and clearing the path for higher highs (today’s poor 7Y auction certainly helped push yields higher)
BONDS:
US 1-MO 5.299 -0.026
US 6-MO 4.867 +0.028
US 1-YR 4.423 +0.024
US 5-YR 3.668 +0.024
US 10-YR 3.863 +0.022
US 30-YR 4.15 +0.019
2YR/10YR -0.04 -0.01
OIL:
– WTI (V4) SETTLED USD 1.39 HIGHER AT USD 75.91/BBL; BRENT (V4) SETTLED USD 1.29 HIGHER AT USD 79.94/BBL
The crude complex was firmer on Thursday, albeit settling off highs, after further Libya updates and initial Iraq induced upside usurped Dollar strength or any lack of Middle Eastern updates.
WTI and Brent rose to session highs of USD 79.91/bbl and 80.78/bbl, respectively, after Reuters sources reported that Iraq plans to cut oil output to between 3.85-3.9mln BPD in September.
Analysts were expecting July production at 4.17mln BPD, and its OPEC target for Q1 is 4.009mln BPD. In addition, Libya suspended oil exports from five eastern ports, and the country’s output dipped further amid an escalating stalemate over who controls the central bank. The eastern-based government ordered the halt of oil-loading operations at the ports of Brega, Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Zueitina and Hariga, according to BBG citing sources.
Through the US afternoon oil came off those peaks, potentially on profit taking or the firmer Dollar having more of an influence. Regarding geopolitics, updates were sparse with the only real update, albeit not much new, from White House’s Sullivan noting Gaza talks have now moved to an advanced stage and talks have made progress but many issues remain unresolved.
Ahead US PCE (July) is the highlight to conclude the week as well as the weekly Baker Hughes rig count. Oil Report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE up: $76.02 +2% (77.53– 73.90) MID
CRYPTO
– Solerna crashes, drags everything down:
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH: 59528 UNCH, 2534 UNCH
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKBWsy5A2bA&sttick=0
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5g-DeG0MJc
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YypsuK6KfHI
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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