MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Amsterdam Bourse
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 8-Mo Lows
– Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 55.2 (July: 55.0) – 2-month high
– Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.8 (July: 50.5) – 14-month low
– Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 48.0 (July: 49.6) – 8-month low
– Existing Home Sales “Still Sluggish” – Weakest July Since 2010, Record Low Affordability
– US Existing Home Sales rose (+1.3%MoM) for the first time in five months in July, but remain down 2.5% YoY (the last time home sales were up YoY was July 2021)
– 232,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ending Aug. 17, up from 228,000 the week prior and in line with economists’ expectations.
– Continuing jobless claims rose again to 1.86 million, the highest level since November 2021.
– Mixed US S&P Global Flash PMIs
– Harker & Collins ready to start easing monetary policy, while Schmid needs to see more data before supporting a cut
COMPANIES:
– BMW (-1.16%) overtakes Tesla (-4.29%) in European EV sales for first time
– TD Bank (TD) released earnings per share at 2.05 CAD, compared to market expectations of 2.08 CAD
GENERAL:
– Powel to speak at Jackson hole tomorrow
– RFK (likely) onstage with Trump tomorrow (likely endorsement)
– Mixed European Flash PMIs, Strong UK; Stellar ZM report
– Euro Bourses close mixed
– FDA approves updated COVID-19 vaccines
– Mortgage rates fall to lowest since May 2023
– Stocks in Serbia Hit 16-year high
– The Indian rupee depreciated toward its record low of 84 per USD in August despite a weak dollar, as markets continued to assess the RBI’s defense against exchange rate volatility and their outlook on monetary policy
– Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement released a joint statement on Thursday, confirming they will reject any agreement
– Wheat hits 4yr LOW, Coal near 8-month highs, Nat Gas -5.5%, Steel Rebar -3.46%
– Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 101.55 +0.5% (101.14 – 101.62) Off HIGHS
– AUD down: 67.05 -0.6% (67.53 – 66.98) Off LOWS
– EUR up: 89.98 +0.36% (89.59 – 90.07) Off HIGHS
– GBP UNCH: 130.87 UNCH (131.29 – 130.78) Off LOWS
– JPY UNCH: 145.15 UNCH (146.32 – 144.46) Off LOWS
GOLD Down: $2518 -1.14% (2547 – 2506) Off LOWS
DOW/ES/ND down: 40850 -0.38%, 5595 -0.81%, 19583 -1.64%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 60413 -1.94%, 2612 -1.19%
CRUDE up: $72.93 +1.40% (71.60 – 73.50) Off HIGHS
Coming Up:
– Jackson Hole Symposium
– Japanese CPI, ECB SCE, Canadian Retail Sales
Speakers:
– BoJ Governor Ueda; Fed Chair Powell, Goolsbee; BoE’s Bailey
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar Index snapped its 4-day losing streak, erasing Wednesday’s losses as it headed higher into the 101 handle.
Dollar strength was seen in the European session, with upside continuing upon the release of Initial Jobless Claims which rose more than expected, although continued Jobless Claims rose less than anticipated from the downwardly revised figure from last week.
Mixed S&P Global PMIs (Mfg miss, and Services/Comp beat) saw choppy price action in the DXY initially, but as the session progressed, the Dollar strength resumed ahead of Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole, and likely plenty more with only Goolsbee (2025 Voter, Dove) on the radar at pixel time.
The day witnessed multiple Fed speakers, namely, Schmid (2025 Voter) who noted more data is needed before supporting a rate cut and that there is room to reduce the balance sheet faster than they are now. Moreover, Harker (2026 Voter) said he is ready to start the process of cutting rates, but he’s not in the camp of 25 or 50bps cuts. Collins (2025 Voter) said the timing seems appropriate to begin easing monetary policy, and that policy is well positioned.
Money-market pricing for the Fed into Jackson Hole sees 31bps of rate cuts priced in at the September meeting, and 97bps by year-end. Report courtesy of newsquark.
DOLLAR DX up: 101.55 +0.5% (101.14 – 101.62) Off HIGHS
EUR/GBP
– EUR/USD was choppy with cooler EZ negotiated wages and European Flash PMIs, which saw EZ PMI beat on services and composite but fall short on manufacturing. Nonetheless, the cross headed lower, with weakness exacerbated on the US Initial Jobless Claims release. As such. EUR/USD wiped out gains, falling to troughs of 1.1099.
Pound best performer of the majors with UK Flash PMIs coming in above expectations; Cable made new YTD highs of 1.3129, bringing the 1.3142 high of 2023 into the vicinity.
– EUR up: 89.98 +0.36% (89.59 – 90.07) Off HIGHS
– GBP UNCH: 130.87 UNCH (131.29 – 130.78) Off LOWS
AUD:
Aussie Supply Today!
– AUD down: 67.05 -0.6% (67.53 – 66.98) Off LOWS
YEN:
Nothing of note to report
– JPY UNCH: 145.15 UNCH (146.32 – 144.46) Off LOWS
GOLD/SILVER:
Technically selling and profit taking saw Gold retreat in the face of rising Bond Yields.
GOLD Down: $2518 -1.14% (2547 – 2506) Off LOWS
EQUITIES:
ND leads the way lower
MAG hit Res and fell away
EUR:
– DAX +0.25% 18,495
– FTSE +0.06% 8,288
– CAC flat 7,524
– ES50 flat 4,885
US:
– SPX -0.89% 5,571
– NDX -1.68% 19,492
– DJIA -0.43% 40,713
– RUT -0.95% 2,150
Sectors (W to S): Technology -2.13%, Consumer Discretionary -1.87%, Communication Services -0.93%, Materials -0.24%, Industrials -0.18%, Utilities -0.17%, Consumer Staples -0.11%, Health -0.02%, Energy +0.32%, Financials +0.48%, Real Estate +0.56%
STOCKS:
– Zoom Video Communications ( +12.97%): Profit and revenue exceeded Wall St. consensus alongside strong FY and next quarter guidance.
– Charles Schwab (-0.46%) and TD Bank (-2.19%): TD Bank set aside an additional USD 2.6bln, anticipating fines from ongoing US investigations into its anti-money laundering practices. Provision will be partially offset by a 40.5mln share sale of Charles Schawbe that it held.
– Nivida (-3.7%): DigiTimes reports that despite rumours of shipment delays for Nvidia’s net-gen AI chips, the demand for AI servers remains strong.
– Disney (-0.88%): Appointed Board James Gorman as Chair of its Succession Planning Committee; Gorman previously led the succession process at Morgan Stanely (MS) as executive chairman.
– Paramount (+0.81%): Edgar Bronfman Jr. increased his bid on National Amusements, and a minority stake in Paramount, to USD 6bln.
– Apple (-0.83%) – To offer more options for choosing default browser in EU.
BONDS:
– Treasury yields were all higher today (+6-8bps across the curve), lifting the whole curve back above pre-CPI yield lows from last week. The 2Y yield is back up to 4.00%
BONDS:
US 1-MO 5.325 +0.012
US 6-MO 4.233 +0.004
US 1-YR 4.474 +0.089
US 5-YR 3.734 +0.095
US 10-YR 3.863 +0.087
US 30-YR 4.135 +0.084
2YR/10YR -0.16 -0.01
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures advanced by 1.5% to settle at $73 per barrel on Thursday, ending a four-day losing streak that had pushed prices to their lowest since January. The recovery occurred despite concerns about a potential U.S. economic slowdown and a bleak 2025 outlook, which overshadowed the positive impact of declining oil inventories.
Recent data indicating weaker-than-expected U.S. job growth fueled fears that the world’s largest oil consumer is losing economic momentum. Additionally, expectations of increased oil supplies from the OPEC+ alliance next quarter, coupled with China’s ongoing economic weakness, added pressure to the global oil market.
Traders are now looking to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for guidance on the Fed’s economic strategy.
CRUDE up: $72.93 +1.40% (71.60 – 73.50) Off HIGHS
CRYPTO
– Forty-eight percent of all corporate money contributed to date during the 2024 election cycle, about $248 million, has come from crypto firms
– This makes the industry the most dominant corporate political spender
– The blockchain technology market is worth an estimated $19.7 billion. In the next eight years, that valuation could skyrocket to $943 billion.
– Former President Donald Trump appeared to promote an “official” cryptocurrency project using his name in a Truth Social post on Thursday.
– “For too long, the average American has been squeezed by the big banks and financial elites. It’s time we take a stand — together. #BeDefiant,” the post read. The Republican presidential nominee also included a link to a Telegram channel for his official “DeFi” project.
– “DeFi” stands for decentralized finance and refers to financial activities on a blockchain. It includes cryptocurrency trading and transferring funds outside the purview of banking institutions.
60k Holds in BTC:
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 60413 -1.94%, 2612 -1.19%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjBDa6_AXok
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h04CH9YZcpI
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N06coGzlqDo
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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