MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Buers Van Berlage
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– US Retail Sales STRONG. Act +1.0% Exp +0.3% Prev-0.8%
– bets for a 25bp Sept surged vs 50bp last week
– Ex Autos +0.4% Exp +0.1%
– YoY +2.7% PREV +2%
For the EIGHT MONTH in the last year, the previous month’s data was revised lower
– Weekly Jobless 227k vs Exp 235K
– NY Sate Manufact Index -4.7 Exp -6
– Philly Fed manufact Index -7 Exp +7
– Industrial Production -0.6% Exp -0.3%
– NAHB homebuilder sentiment slumped in August to 39 (well below expectations of a rise from prior 41 to 43 – and below the lowest estimate), back near COVID-Lockdown lows:
– Musalem says time may be nearing for a change in policy rate
– Bostic open to Sept. cut
COMPANIES:
In 2024, 41.6% of U.S. households’ financial assets are tied to the stock market
– Walmart earnings out-perform
– Cisco earnings out-perform
– AST SpaceMobile is preparing to send the first five commercial satellites to LEO to build out its space-based cellular broadband network:
– AST SpaceMobile announced Wednesday after-hours, “First 5 commercial satellites on target for dedicated orbital launch in the first half of September, each the largest-ever communications arrays to be deployed commercially in low Earth orbit.”
– Tesla +6%
GENERAL:
– MSCI Inc. is culling 60 more Chinese stocks from its indexes in its latest quarterly review, the U.S. index provider said on Monday.
– the third large-scale removal of Chinese stocks from the MSCI Global Standard indexes this year following 66 and 56 deletions announced in February and May, respectively.
– Euro Bourses close strongly higher
– Aug. 015, 2024, marks the 53rd anniversary of the “Nixon Shock,” the day that United States President Richard Nixon eliminated the gold standard for the US dollar. At the time, Nixon claimed that taking the dollar off the gold standard was “temporary” and would “stabilize” the dollar.
– Vance and Walz Oct 1st debate.
– Harris campaign releases economic policy: first-ever federal ban on “corporate price-gouging in the food and grocery industries” IE FEDERAL PRICE CONTROLS (State regulation always works out well. To follow: mile-long lines for food, meat coupons, shortages, food black market.)
– Rate cut Expectations
– Soybeans 4-yr low, Cocoa -5%, Corn -6%, OJ +3%, Platinum +3.75%, Silver +2.85%
– Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude/Dollar up, Crypto dumps
DOLLAR DX Up: 103.05 +0.47% (102.54 – 103.22) Off HIGHS
– AUD up: 66.12 +0.25% (66.36 – 65.98) MID
– EUR up: 91.12 +0.37% (90.76 – 91.29) MID
– GBP up: 128.52 +0.18% (128.00 – 128.71) Off HIGHS
– JPY UP: 149.30 +1.41% (147.05 – 149.31) HIGHS
GOLD up: $2494 +0.54% (2507 – 2469) MID
DOW/ES/ND up/up/UP: 40720 +1.5%, 5570 +1.690%, 19585 +2.46%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN/DOWN: 56906 –3.74%, 2545 -4.81%
CRUDE up: $78.00 +1.33% (77.03 – 78.56) MID
Coming Up:
– UK Retail Sales, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.)
Speakers:
– RBA’s Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Kent & Jones; Fed’s Goolsbee.
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar Index markedly rose on Thursday, lifting from lows of 102.53 to a high of 103.23, after Retail Sales (Jul) surpassed both expectations and the consensus range, driven by a 3.6% rise in sales of motor vehicle and part dealers.
Treasury yields were sent roaring higher, with money markets reacting hawkishly to the data, pricing in approximately 93bps of rate cuts by year-end (vs. 105bps pre-data).
Simultaneously, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Claims unexpectedly fell, potentially quelling some recent fears surrounding the labour market and that the consumer remains healthy, supporting DXY’s move higher. Industrial Production fell more than expected and Empire/Philly Fed survey data was mixed.
Regarding Fedspeak, Bostic (2024 Voter, Neutral) noted in morning trade, that he is open to a September rate cut as inflation cools and as price pressures ease officials also need to be conscious of their mandate of maintaining full employment.
Musalem (2025 Voter) said the time may be nearing for a change in the policy rate and altered his view on monetary policy from restrictive in July to moderately restrictive.
The Dollar index trimmed some its gains in the US afternoon, falling back below the 103 handle ahead of UoM Prelim (Aug) on Friday.
DOLLAR DX Up: 103.05 +0.47% (102.54 – 103.22) Off HIGHS
EUR/GBP
– The Pound outperformed in the G10 space after the in-line GDP Q2 results, bolstered the view the UK economy has incurred a solid H1. Cable set highs of 1.2871.
The Euro lagged in the red, as EUR/USD trundled lower to lows of 1.0950, although, reduced losses as the session progressed.
EUR up: 91.12 +0.37% (90.76 – 91.29) MID
GBP up: 128.52 +0.18% (128.00 – 128.71) Off HIGHS
AUD:
– the Australian economy added significantly more jobs than was expected, while the Unemployment Rate surprisingly ticked higher, albeit, as the Participating rate too unexpectedly jumped higher.
AUD/USD regained the 0.66 handle ahead of RBA’s Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Kent & Jones speaking to the House of Representatives
AUD up: 66.12 +0.25% (66.36 – 65.98) MID
YEN:
– GDP data out of Japan rising more than expected, as rising US yields which rallied on US Retails, offset the positive GDP data.
JPY UP: 149.30 +1.41% (147.05 – 149.31) HIGHS
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold has surged 19% this year and hit an all-time high of $2,483.73 an ounce last month. Bullion’s advance has been fueled by increasing optimism on monetary easing, along with purchases by central banks. Gold’s appeal as a haven asset has also been boosted by Middle East tensions and Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,457.81 at 2:38 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.2%. Silver, platinum and palladium all advanced.
GOLD up: $2494 +0.54% (2507 – 2469) MID
EQUITIES:
– Mag7 stocks is up 6 straight days
EUR:
– DAX +1.66% 18,182
– FTSE +0.80% 8,347
– CAC +1.23% 7,423
– ES50 +1.69% 4,806
US:
– SPX +1.61% 5,543
– NDX +2.46% 19,490
– DJIA +1.39% 40,563
– RUT +2.45% 2,135
Sectors (W to S): Real Estate -0.34%, Utilities flat, Health +0.60%, Energy +0.86%, Communication Services +0.87%, Financials +0.92%, Consumer Staples +0.99%, Industrials +1.32%, Materials +1.50%, Technology +2.54%, Consumer Discretionary +3.38%
STOCKS
– Cisco (+6.8%) – Top and bottom lines beat alongside cutting 7% of its workforce. Exec sees steady demand in the latest quarter despite persistent macro uncertainty.
– Walmart (+6.58%) – Topped expectations in profit, revenue, and comp sales, in addition to boosting FY adj. EPS view.
– Alibaba (+0.14%) – Revenue fell short, with executives expecting most of its international business will break even in one to two years.
– Deere & Co (+6.26%) – EPS and revenue exceeded expectations, as higher prices helped shield profits from slowdown in demand for new machines amid decline in crop prices and high borrowing cost.
– Boeing (+4.69%) – Israel’s El Al Airlines signed a deal to buy up to 31 737 Max craft for as much as USD 2.5bln
OIL:
– The latest data from the EIA showed that US utilities withdrew 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas on the week ending August 9th, despite the tendency for seasonal builds, to record the first August decline since 2006 and contrast with market expectations of a 43 billion cubic feet increase. Consistently, US gas production has decreased to 102.6 billion cubic feet per day so far this month, down from July’s 103.4 bcfd and December’s record of 105.5 bcfd. Lower output is expected to support prices, making them more responsive to any supply disruptions or additional heat. This was magnified by the resumption of normal capacity of LNG exports through the Freeport plant in late July, following a brief suspension due to Hurricane Beryl, increasing competition for domestic gas buying.
CRUDE up: $78.00 +1.33% (77.03 – 78.56) MID
BONDS:
– Bonds were battered on the day (2Y +15bps, 30Y +6bps), surging up to unchanged on the week
– The yield curve flattened significantly today – erasing all the post-payrolls steepening
US 1-MO 5.327 -0.009
US 6-MO 5.011 +0.055
US 1-YR 4.545 +0.119
US 5-YR 3.792 +0.126
US 10-YR 3.917 +0.095
US 30-YR 4.172 +0.063
2YR/10YR -0.18 -0.05
CRYPTO
– 60k now looking firm RES
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN/DOWN: 56906 –3.74%, 2545 -4.81%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wQD3hHbIc1M
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z778slDEsds
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmbpagijVkk
Quote of the Day:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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