MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)

Telephone room NYSE

Day in Review:

Today:
(Kamalanomics):

DATA:

– PPI +0.1% VS Exp +0.2%, +2.2% YoY
– This easing in price pressures supports the Fed’s potential rate cuts while it shifts focus to the slowing labor market
– The data raised hopes of softer consumer prices reflected by the CPI print due tomorrow and incoming PCE readings
– Markets currently expect the Fed to deliver 100bps in rate cuts during the three remaining policy decisions this year

– TOM CPI!:
– EXP headline 3.0%, UNCH from June
– Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2%, an uptick from the prior month’s 0.1% decline as energy prices are largely expected to pick up again.
– On a “core” basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in July are expected to have risen 3.2% over last year, a slowdown from the 3.3% annual increase seen in June. Monthly core prices, however, are expected to rise 0.2% compared to 0.1% increase in June

– Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates

–  In terms of Fed pricing, there was a slight dovish reaction to the data, with 39bps of rate cuts priced in at the September meeting (prev. 37bps D/D) and 108bps of rate cuts by year-end (prev. 101.8)

COMPANIES:
In 2024, 41.6% of U.S. households’ financial assets are tied to the stock market

– Starbucks +24.5% after appointment new CEO (Poached from Chipotle (-7.5%))

– Home Depot was little changed (+1.7%) after reducing its sales forecast amid ongoing consumer spending reluctance.

– Paramount (+0.95%) cuts TV Studio & 15% of workforce pre expected Skydance Media

– Google (+1.21%) rolls out Pixel 9 phones (earlier than Exp in its race vs APPL(+1.72%))

GENERAL:

– Euro hits 7-month high

– Euro Bourses close firmer

– Trump/Musk X interview hit with massive cyberattack, garners over 1 BILLION views.

– A $150,000 House In 1988 Now Costs $707,500:

– VIX back to 18, pre-payrolls

– Rate cut expectations jumped post PPI

– Corn hits 4-year LOW

– Corn -5.97%, Coffee -3.96%, Canola -3.33%, Oats +2.99%, OJ +2.29%

– Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down

DOLLAR DX down: 102.62             -0.5% (103.27 – 102.55) LOWS
– AUD up: 66.37                               +0.71% (65.87 – 66.39) HIGHS
– EUR down: 90.96                          -0.55% (91.59 – 90.89) LOWS
– GBP up: 128.61                             +0.71% (127.71 – 128.71) HIGHS
– JPY down: 146.83                         -0.24% (147.93 – 146.60) Off LOWS

GOLD UNCH: $2504                                       UNCH (2498 – 2514) MID
DOW/ES/ND up/up/UP:                               39872 +1%, 5455 +1.6%, 19100 2.5%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP/up:                            60722 +3.25%, 2697 +1%
CRUDE down: $78.66                                    -1.75% (80.12 – 78.17) Off LOWS

Coming Up:

– UK CPI

– US CPI

Speakers:

– RBNZ’s Orr

Earnings:

– Aviva, Cisco

MAJORS:

DX:
– DX tanked to post-payrolls plunge lows

DOLLAR DX down: 102.62             -0.5% (103.27 – 102.55) LOWS

EUR
– The Euro saw pressure earlier on in the European session, after Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) was well below market expectations, driving EUR/USD to its session lows of 1.0914. Nevertheless, the Euro, like its G10 peers, benefited off the back of the cool US PPI data, swiftly eliminating intraday losses, seeing highs of 1.0999.

Looking ahead, EZ flash GDP and Employment data behave as the next possible Euro catalysts

EUR down: 90.96                            -0.55% (91.59 – 90.89) LOWS

GBP:
– Macro newsflow, saw strong UK June Jobs data, specifically a much larger addition to Jobs than was expected alongside the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly falling (forecasted to rise), while average earnings (Ex-Bonus) fell in line with expectations. As such, Cable sits near session highs of 1.2873, further cementing its place as the sole G10 FX to have strengthened against the Buck YTD ahead of UK CPI (Wed).

GBP up: 128.61                 +0.71% (127.71 – 128.71) HIGHS

AUD:
– AUD/USD rallied above both its 200 DMA (0.6593) and 90 DMA (0.6608) to around 0.6637, putting aside earlier choppy trade it endured after the Australian Wage Price Index was slightly hotter than forecasted

AUD up: 66.37                                 +0.71% (65.87 – 66.39) HIGHS

YEN:
– Rabobank expecting the market to return to the business of evaluating fundamentals, in which they expect it to start likely with a recovery in the value of the USD over the coming days. That said, the agency expects USD/JPY can still trend lower on a 3-to-6-month view and a move lower to 142 on a 6-month view.

JPY down: 146.83                            -0.24% (147.93 – 146.60) Off LOWS

GOLD/SILVER:
Gold prices eased from challenging a new all-time high on Tuesday, dragged by profit-taking and a pair of reports that amounted to a mixed sentiment on how much of a toll inflation was still registering on markets.

Gold traded at $2,468 per ounce, down $7.47, early Tuesday, retreating from its Monday close less than $10 away from its mid-July high of $2,482 per ounce. Silver also was dinged, trading $0.37 down at $27.65 per ounce.

GOLD UNCH: $2504                                       UNCH (2498 – 2514) MID

EQUITIES:

EUR:
– DAX +0.45% 17,806
– FTSE +0.30% 8,235
– CAC +0.35% 7,276
– ES50 +0.49% 4,695

US:
– SPX +1.69% 5,434
– NDX +2.5% 19,006
– DJIA +1.04% 39,766
– RUT +1.61% 2,095

Sectors (W to S): Energy -1.0%, Consumer Staples +0.5%, Utilities +0.5%, Real Estate +0.7%, Financials +0.9%, Materials +1.0%, Industrials +1.1%, Health +1.2%, Communication Services +1.5%, Consumer Discretionary +2.4%, Technology +3.0%.

STOCKS

Boeing (+2.82) – Will likely miss its key 737 MAX jet production target in 2024, which aims to produce 38 MAX jets a month by the end of 2024, analysts at rating agencies Moody’s and S&P told Reuters.
– Discovered a new set of problems in its 737s and further slowing deliveries, according to Fortune. Boeing confirmed in a statement to Fortune that it identified a “non-conforming component” on three already delivered airplanes, leading to their grounding. Co. noted that production hasn’t stopped at the Renton factory.

OIL
:

– Bullish Positioning In Oil Just Hit An All-Time Low, Signaling Price Rebound

– Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 110 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on August 6, The most recent week saw sales across the board in Brent (-53 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-31 million), European gas oil (-13 million), U.S. diesel (-9 million) and U.S. gasoline (-5 million).

CRUDE down: $78.66                                    -1.75% (80.12 – 78.17) Off LOWS

BONDS:

– Treasury yields tumbled on the day, extending lower after the cool PPI. The Short-end outperformed (2Y -8bps, 30Y -4bps):

– The 2y Yield broke back below 4.00%:

US 1-MO 5.326 -0.039
US 6-MO 4.932 -0.046
US 1-YR 4.413 -0.057
US 5-YR 3.677 -0.072
US 10-YR 3.847 -0.062
US 30-YR 4.16 -0.038

2YR/10YR -0.09

 CRYPTO

– Market sentiment suggests that Donald Trump winning the U.S. elections in November would be bullish for crypto markets and a Kamala Harris victory would be bearish, Wall Street broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday.

The broker noted that bitcoin has weakened following the shift in Polymarket odds and polls in Harris’ favor, and it expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency to “remain rangebound until there is a clearer election signal.”

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP/up:                            60722 +3.25%, 2697 +1%

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r9DkTrZjx3A

Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rWyNFiKq2A

Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VVgdWusBqPE

(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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