MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
US-Chinese early trade
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics):
DATA:
– JOLTS above expectations, with the prior revised up
– Mixed US Consumer Confidence, but headline beats
COMPANIES:
– NVDA (-6.5%)
– Sysco (+4.38%) released earnings per share at 1.39 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.38 USD
– Microsoft (-0.89%) released earnings per share at 2.95 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.94 USD
– Mondelez International (-0.075%) released earnings per share at 0.86 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.79 USD
– Starbucks (+0.98%) released earnings per share at 0.93 USD, in line with market expectations.
– Advanced Micro Devices (-0.94%) released earnings per share at 0.69 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.68 USD.
– Pfizer (+2.18%) – Adj. EPS and revenue beat, alongside raising its 2024 guidance.
– Canadian Pacific Railway (-0.22%) released earnings per share at 0.97 CAD, compared to market expectations of CAD
– Airbus (-1.99%) released earnings per share at 0.29 EUR, compared to market expectations of 0.79 EUR
GENERAL:
– BOJ leaks – Hawkish
– Multiple BoJ reports say the bank is considering a 15bps hike
– Yen spikes
– Carry trades hammered
– Tech crushed
– Expectations for a Fed rate-cut this week are practically zero
– Russia poised to capture all of Donetsk after a series of breakthroughs
– Venezuela opposition ‘lose’ ‘elections’
– Israeli military launched retaliatory attack on Lebanon
– Copper 4-month LOW
– Mexican Peso 16-month LOW
– Natural Gas SURGES, Corn -6%, Cocoa +4.11%
– Equities mixed, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar flat
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104. 47 UNCH (104.80 – 104.47) LOWS
– AUD down: 65.35 -0.19% (65.63 – 65.31) LOWS
– EUR up: 92.46 +0.1% (92.26 – 92.57) MID
– GBP down: 1.2837 -0.18% (128.64 – 128.21) Off LOWS
– JPY DOWN: 152.71 -0.81% (155.19 – 152.74) LOWS
GOLD UP: $2456 +1.26% (2428 – 22457) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND UNCH/down/DOWN: 40774 UNCH, 5452 -0.9%, 18861 -1.81%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 66210 -1.7%, 3277 -1.7%
CRUDE DOWN: $75.27 -0.7% (75.96 – 75.4.63) MID
Coming Up:
– Japanese Retail Sales, Australia CPI, German Trade, French CPI, German Unemployment Rate, Italian Industrial Sales, EZ Flash HICP, US ADP, US Chicago PMI.
– FOMC, BoJ & BCB Policy Announcements
Speakers:
Fed Chair Powell
EARNINGS:
– HSBC, Taylor Wimpey, GSK, Lufthansa, Fresenius SE, Siemens Healthineers, Adidas, Schneider Electric, Danone, Safran, Telefonica, BBVA, Telecom Italia, ADP, Boeing, Mastercard, ARM, Meta, Qualcomm, T-Mobile US
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar Index was flat on Tuesday, and was pressured from safe-haven demand, but this was balanced by gains against the Euro and Pound.
The index saw highs of 104.79 earlier in the session, with the higher-than-expected JOLTS figure seeing it test the figure to the upside, again. Ultimately, the Index edged lower, paring gains, perhaps as participants weighed on the upward revision to the May JOLTS figure. This indicated that despite the print being higher than expected it still decreased M/M, just at a slower pace than anticipated.
Attention on the buck now looks towards Wednesday, for FOMC, ADP National Employment (Jul), US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and Chicago PMI (Jul).
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104. 47 UNCH (104.80 – 104.47) LOWS
EUR
The Euro saw marginal losses against the Greenback, with the cross hovering around the low end of the 1.08 mark, in a session that saw a tight range, amid a slew of data within the region, which saw mostly positive prints in the EZ (better-than-expected EU GDP, Economic/Industrial Sentiment, and France/Spanish GDP Q/Q Q2). However, Germany’s GDP Flash QQ SA Q2 unexpectedly contracted, driven by a drop in investments in equipment and buildings. There was also hot regional German CPI data, which ultimately translated through to above expectations German CPI and HICP.
A series of CPI data lies ahead on Wednesday, specifically, EZ, France, and Italy.
EUR up: 92.46 +0.1% (92.26 – 92.57) MID
GBP/AUD:
AUD CPI TODAY!
GBP down: 1.2837 -0.18% (128.64 – 128.21) Off LOWS
AUD down: 65.35 -0.19% (65.63 – 65.31) LOWS
YEN:
USD/JPY fell to lows of 152.99 after multiple Asian news outlets reported that the BoJ is considering raising rates to 0.25%, in its meeting on Wednesday; BoJ pricing puts an approx. 40% chance of a 15bps rate hike in the meeting.
JPY DOWN: 152.71 -0.81% (155.19 – 152.74) LOWS
GOLD/METALS:
– Gold ignored the dollar and extended gains, spiking on the Israeli airstrikes headlines
GOLD UP: $2456 +1.26% (2428 – 22457) HIGHS
BONDS:
– Treasuries were bid (as traders saw through the HL JOLTS data) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -4bps, 30Y -2bps). That small rally pushed all yields lower on the week
EQUITIES:
Nasdaq has almost recoupled with Russell 2000 YTD
– S&P is around its 50DMA
= Nasdaq has tumbled down to its its 100DMA and found support
– the total market-cap of the Magnificent 7 stocks tumbled back below $15 trillion today (down over $2 trillion from its record highs) – in context, that is just a two-month low
EUR:
– DAX +0.56% 18,424
– FTSE -0.22% 8,274
– CAC +0.42% 7,475
– ES50 +0.53% 4,841
US:
– SPX -0.50% 5,436
– NDX -1.40% 18,796
– DJIA +0.50% 40,743
– RUT +0.40% 2,243
Sectors (W to S): Technology -2.20%, Consumer Staples -0.66%, Consumer Discretionary -0.55%, Materials -0.36%, Health +0.11%, Communication Services +0.16%, Industrials +0.27%, Utilities +0.55%, Real Estate +0.76%, Financials +1.19%, Energy +1.54%.
OIL:
WTI (U4) SETTLED USD 1.08 LOWER AT 74.73/BBL; BRENT (U4) SETTLED USD 1.15 LOWER AT 78.63/BBL
The crude complex was lower on Tuesday amid ongoing weakness from China demand woes, despite escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of the weeks pivotal risk events. Regarding the day, WTI and Brent saw choppiness through the European morning but eventually inched higher to hit peaks of USD 75.97/bbl and 79.99/bbl, respectively. Thereafter, the crude complex sold off in a continuation of the weakness emanating from Chinese demand that has plagued the complex to see it WTI and Brent hit troughs of USD 74.59/bbl and 78.43/bbl. However, energy came off lows after it was reported that the Israeli military carried out strike in Beirut in retaliation for attack on Golan Heights and targeted the commander responsible. Nonetheless, as it was reported he survived and the dust settled, energy edged back towards its earlier troughs. Looking ahead, the weekly private inventory data is after-hours (expectations are for Crude -1.1mln, Distillate -1.2mln, Gasoline -1.0mln), ahead of the major macro risk events via BoJ, FOMC, ISM Manufacturing PMI, mega-cap earnings, and NFP. Oil report thanks to newsquak
CRUDE DOWN: $75.27 -0.7% (75.96 – 75.4.63) MID
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.381
US 6-MO 5.113
US 1-YR 4.498
US 5-YR 4.034
US 10-YR 4.14
US 30-YR 4.399
2YR/10YR -0.22
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin extended yesterday’s losses, testing a $65,000 handle (after briefly tagging $70k yesterday).
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 66210 -1.7%, 3277 -1.7%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Song of the day:
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWuFQGrWda8
On this day:
July 30th:
2015: Ethereum launched
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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