MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Augsburg trading market
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics):
COMPANIES:
– Tesla (+5.60%) jumps on replacing Ford as Morgans Top Pick
– McDonalds +4%
GENERAL:
– Mixed BoJ sources
– Treasury lowers financing estimates, as expected
– Israel-Hezbollah tensions rise
– UK budget due October 30th
– CAC40 6-month LOW, CAC/DAX LOW vs FTSE HIGH
– Coal rises 2-month High
– Cocoa -5%, Aluminum 5-year high, Crude 7-week LOW, Nat Gas -5.28%, UK Nat Gas 4.61%, Corn -3.24%
– Equities mixed, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 104.57 +0.24% (104.21 – 104.75) Off Highs
– AUD UNCH: 65.45 UNCH (65.66 – 65.26) MID
– EUR up: 92.37 +0.29% (92.01 – 92.54) MID
– GBP UNCH: 1.2858 UNCH (128.85 – 128.08) MID
– JPY up: 153.95 +0.16% (153.17 – 154.19) Off HIGHS
GOLD UNCH: $2381 UNCH (2393 – 2368) MID
DOW/ES/ND Down/up/up: 40768 -0.16%, 5504 +0.1%, 19222 +0.25%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/up: 67154 -1.1%, 3315 +1.82%
CRUDE DOWN: $75.94 -1.58% (77.63 – 75.37) Off LOWS
Coming Up:
– Japanese Unemployment Rate, Australian Retail Trade, Spanish GDP, German CPI, Italian GDP, EZ Economic Sentiment, US JOLTs
Speakers:
EARNINGS:
– Airbus, Scor, L’Oreal, Teleperformance, Fresenius Medical Care, Covestro, Diageo, Sage, St James’s Place, Croda, BP, Rio Tinto, Grifols, Leonardo, Intesa Sanpaolo, Merck, Paypal, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, AMD, Microsoft, Mondelez, Starbucks
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar is firmer against most of its peers, as the focus lies on key risk events later in the week. The DXY rose to 104.559, but pared back to c. 104.50 ahead of APAC trade with the index remaining stuck in the 104 region for the eighth consecutive session.
US data releases for the session were light, though the Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Index (Jul) fell to -17.5 (prev. -15.1).
The remainder of the week is plentiful, namely, FOMC (Wed), ISM Mfg PMI July (Wed), and NFP (Fri); the immediate vicinity (Tue) will see JOLTs (Jun) and Consumer Confidence (Jul)
DOLLAR DX up: 104.57 +0.24% (104.21 – 104.75) Off Highs
EUR
The Euro weakened the most against the buck relative to its G10FX peers, with little macro newsflow in the space, albeit, plenty of data releases lie ahead, namely a deluge of GDP Q2 reports (France, Germany, Italy, EZ) on Tuesday, as well as German CPI (Tues) and France, EZ, and Italy, all on Wednesday.
EUR/USD troughed at 1.0804, breaking below last week’s low and the 200DMA of 1.0819, with EUR/USD trading sideways throughout the rest of the session.
EUR up: 92.37 +0.29% (92.01 – 92.54) MID
GBP/AUD:
GBP UNCH: 1.2858 UNCH (128.85 – 128.08) MID
AUD UNCH: 65.45 UNCH (65.66 – 65.26) MID
YEN:
WSJ reported Boj sources: “Some policymakers believe rate increases would have positive effects on consumption as the major cause of weak spending is the JPY depreciation; others doubt how much a small rate hike could help the JPY recovery”; USD/JPY hovers around 154.
Going forward, attention is particularly on the upcoming Central Banks Meetings, namely the BoJ, and Fed on Wednesday, which are both expected to maintain rates, although some forecast a BoJ hike. The BoE is due on Thursday, with markets pricing a c. 60% probability of cutting rates by 25bps.
JPY up: 153.95 +0.16% (153.17 – 154.19) Off HIGHS
GOLD/METALS:
Move on.
GOLD UNCH: $2381 UNCH (2393 – 2368) MID
BONDS:
– the long-end outperforming (30Y -3bps, 2Y unch)
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: -0.49% 18,327
– FTSE flat 8,292
– CAC -0.98% 7,444
– ES50 -1.00% 4,814
US:
– SPX +0.1% 5,464
– NDQ +0.2%
– DJIA -0.1% 40,540
– RUT -1.1% at 2,235
Sectors (W to S): Energy -0.87%, Technology -0.33%, Financials -0.21%, Industrials -0.16%, Consumer Staples +0.07%, Health +0.09%, Materials +0.17%, Utilities +0.44%, Real Estate +0.62%, Communication Services +0.87%, Consumer Discretionary +1.42%
STOCKS:
– Alphabet (+1.45%) – Upgraded at Phillip Securities on attractive valuation
– Alibaba (+2.73%) – Plans to boost service fees for merchants
– McDonalds (+3.74%) – Shares rose despite missing estimates although it noted its well-received USD 5 meal deal, which has gained positive traction, is yet to be felt. However, it does see negative Q3 comp trends across all segments.
OIL:
WTI (U4) SETTLES USD 1.35 LOWER AT 75.81/BBL; BRENT (U4) SETTLES USD 1.35 LOWER AT 79.78/BBL
The crude complex was choppy to start the week but eventually settled with losses, and at lows, as possible Dollar strength/risk aversion outweighed the initial geopolitical risk premium. On the day, WTI and Brent gapped higher at the open, and printed highs of USD 77.69/bbl and 81.74/bbl, respectively, after early gains were facilitated by the Middle East with attention on Israel’s response to the Golan Heights attack, with many fearing an all-out war with Lebanon. Nonetheless, these gains were soon trimmed in conjunction with a negative tilt in risk which also saw the Dollar index rise to session highs. Elsewhere, energy-specific newsflow was light, ahead of the risks key risk events with the OPEC+ JMMC slated for August 1st, but no recommendation is expected to be presented. For the record, US DoE finalized the purchase of 4.65mln bbls of crude for the SPR, with Exxon (XOM) to supply 3.9mln bbls and Macquarie Commodities trading are to supply the rest. Average purchase price for the oil was c. USD 76.92/bbl and it is to keep buying oil for SPR into next year. Oil report thanks to newsquak
CRUDE DOWN: $75.94 -1.58% (77.63 – 75.37) Off LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.373 +0.012
US 6-MO 5.131 -0.013
US 1-YR 4.803 -0.044
US 5-YR 4.076 -0.068
US 10-YR 4.195 -0.060
US 30-YR 4.455 -0.044
2YR/10YR -0.19
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin briefly rose above $71,000 Monday morning.
– Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile.
– Republican U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has announced a bill that would establish a bitcoin strategic reserve of roughly 5% of the total bitcoin supply.
– Twenty-eight Democrats signed a letter recommending that the party take a “forward-looking approach” to crypto.
– The Kackler Harris campaign has reportedly reached out to the crypto industry in an effort to reset relations.
– Spot ether ETFs ended their first week of trading with $341.8 million of net outflows.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/up: 67154 -1.1%, 3315 +1.82%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Clip of the Day:
Song of the day:
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG1GNbtIUWI
On this day:
July 30th:
1945: Plane crashes into Empire state building
1914: Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
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