MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
CME
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA (Kamalanomics):
– GDP hotter than Expected, +2.8% Exp +2.0% Prev +1.4% led by an acceleration in consumer demand
– Durable Goods Headline worse, but Ex-Transport stronger
– Weekly Jobless claims declined 235K Exp 247K
COMPANIES:
– Ford (-18.36%) SMOKED on profit miss
– IBM (+2.73%)
– American Airlines (+4.23%)
– Unilever (+4.54%) released earnings per share at 1.62 EUR, compared to market expectations of 1.47 EUR
– British American Tobacco (+4.04%) released earnings per share at 1.693 GBP, compared to market expectations of 170.25 GBP.
– Honeywell International (-5.24%) released earnings per share at 2.49 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.42 USD
– Raytheon Technologies (+8.24%) released earnings per share at 1.41 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.29 USD
– Northrop Grumman (+6.43%) released earnings per share at 6.36 USD, compared to market expectations of 5.93 USD
– AstraZeneca (-1.49%) released earnings per share at 1.98 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.99 USD.
– OpenAI launch “SearchGPT” to challenge Google
GENERAL:
– Paris Olympics Opening ceremony tomorrow
– PBoC surprise MLF cut
– Weak German IFO
– CAC closes Lower, FTSE up smalls.
– Strong 7yr auction
– Biden approves $3B Weapons sale to Saudi Arabia (despite campaigning in 2020 stating he’d make SA a ‘pariah’)
– Russian & Chinese bombers intercepted near Alaska (rare joint force)
– Nat Gas retraces, Silver down, Cocoa -4.58%, Ether -5.5%
– Equities mixed, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold & Silver puke, ETH SMOKED
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.41 UNCH (104.08 – 104.45) Off HIGHS
– AUD down: 65.43 -0.61% (65.20 – 65.61) MID
– EUR UNCH: 92.17 UNCH (92.32 – 91.98) MID
– GBP down: 1.2850 -0.4% (129.14 – 128.50) LOWS
– JPY up: 153.91 +0.15% (151.96 – 154.29) Off HIGHS
GOLD down: $2363 -2.17% (2381 – 2352) Off LOWS
DOW/ES/ND up/down/down: 40237 +0.32%, 5444 -0.51%, 18992 -1.1%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/DOWN: 65319 -0.9%, 3161 -6.10%
CRUDE UP: $78.34 +0.96% (76.04 – 78.47) Off HIGHS
Coming Up:
– JAP Tokyo CPI
– GE Import Prices
– ESP Retail Sales
– IT Business Manufacturing Confidence
– US PCE
Speakers:
EARNINGS:
– Holcim, Capgemini, Air Liquide, Mercedes-Benz, Wacker Chemie, BASF, NatWest, 3M, Aon, Bristol-Myers.
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar mixed against its peers, accompanied by the DXY incurring a tight range and a choppy Thursday session.
The DXY saw lows of 104.07 in the European morning when havens were rallying, namely the Yen.
US data came in mostly hotter, with a higher-than-expected Q2 GDP led by strong Consumer spending, which accelerated from the prior quarter, indicated by consumption of goods turning positive. Moreover, Core PCE Prices in Q2 came higher than expected but eased from the prior quarter. Contrary to the resilient GDP numbers, Durable Goods unexpectedly slumped, largely attributed to a fall in transportation equipment.
The dollar index trades roughly at 104.3 ahead of Friday’s Core PCE Index (exp. 0.1% M/M).
Initial Jobless Claims reinforced the tone exhibited in the GDP print by falling more than forecasted, although, the prior did experience a slight upward revision; Continued Jobless Claims fell beneath all analyst forecasts
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.41 UNCH (104.08 – 104.45) Off HIGHS
EUR
The Euro was flat vs the buck. Fresh fundamentals consisted of Germany’s headline Ifo which fell more than expected to 87 (exp. 88.9), its third consecutive month of declines; Expectations and Current conditions fell more than forecasted; Ifo President said: “The German economy is stuck in the crisis”.
Looking ahead, Friday’s docket will unveil Spanish Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate, and Italian Mfg Business and Consumer Confidence.
US Core PCE the focus.
EUR UNCH: 92.17 UNCH (92.32 – 91.98) MID
GBP/AUD:
The moves involved no fresh news-flow concerning the mentioned currencies, but rather a result of hot US data with both currencies hitting intraday lows in the wake of the data, before paring somewhat, but GBP returned to the lows in late trade.
Data on Friday for activity currencies is lacking, with attention on the BoE rate decision next Thursday, with BoE pricing in a 50/50 scenario of a rate cut or hold.
GBP down: 1.2850 -0.4% (129.14 – 128.50) LOWS
AUD down: 65.43 -0.61% (65.20 – 65.61) MID
YEN:
The USD/JPY lows of 151.95 failing to test the 200DMA @ 151.53.
JPY up: 153.91 +0.15% (151.96 – 154.29) Off HIGHS
GOLD/METALS:
Underlying inflation gauges remained well above the Federal Reserve’s target, limiting the magnitude of rate cuts that may be necessary in the upcoming loosening cycle. Markets continued to fully price a September rate cut by the US central bank, followed by two additional reductions anticipated before the end of the year.
Elsewhere, there are expectations of increased physical demand from India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, following the government’s reduction of its gold import tax from 15% to 6%.
Support at $2350
GOLD down: $2363 -2.17% (2381 – 2352) Off LOWS
BONDS:
– Mixed day for bonds with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1bps, 30Y -5bps) reversing some of the recent very aggressive steepening of the curve
EQUITIES:
– Nasdaq has underperformed Russell 2000 for 11 of the last 12 days, erasing YTD outperformance for the big-tech index
– This is the biggest relative underperformance of the Nasdaq vs Russell 2000 since the peak of the dotcom boom
– The S&P 500 found support almost perfectly at its 50DMA (5433), bounced, then fell back below it again
– Nasdaq also bounced off its 100DMA yesterday, and faded back towards it today
Equity risk is back up at its highest since April, but bond vol remains muted
EUR:
– DAX -0.45% 18,304
– FTSE +0.40% 8,186
– CAC -1.15% 7,427
– ES50 -1.05% 4,811
US:
– SPX -0.5% 5,399
– NDX -1.1% 18,831
– DJIA +0.2% 39,953
– RUT +1.3% 2,223
Sectors (W to S): Communication Services -1.86%, Technology -1.14%, Utilities -0.88%, Health -0.57%, Real Estate -0.57%, Consumer Discretionary -0.42%, Consumer Staples flat, Materials +0.26%, Financials +0.28%, Industrials +0.76%, Energy +1.47%.
OIL:
WTI crude oil futures fell below $77 per barrel on early Thursday, the lowest in over six weeks, due to weak Chinese demand, which overshadowed positive US inventory data. Concerns about China’s declining oil imports and refinery activity due to sluggish economic growth weighed on the market.
Advancing ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas could also reduce supply threats and pressure prices lower.
Meanwhile, the US economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in Q2, suggesting potential Fed interest rate cuts in September, which could boost oil demand.
On Wednesday, the EIA reported a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories by 3.7 million barrels and a significant decrease in gasoline stocks by 5.6 million barrels.
In Canada, wildfires in British Columbia and Alberta, near the oil sands hub Fort McMurray, continue to pose risks.
Crude saw a late session short cover to return to positive territory on over-sold levels.
CRUDE UP: $78.34 +0.96% (76.04 – 78.47) Off HIGHS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.38 +0.009
US 6-MO 5.144 -0.006
US 1-YR 4.841 -0.001
US 5-YR 4.134 UNCH
US 10-YR 4.244 -0.041
US 30-YR 4.487 -0.061
2YR/10YR -0.19
CRYPTO
Etherium continues to get smoked.
– ETH dramatically lagged BTC, erasing most of the post-May ‘buy the ETF rumor’ gains
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/DOWN: 65319 -0.9%, 3161 -6.10%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Clip of the Day:
Song of the day:
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoi47GBZSpI
On this day:
July 25th1:
2000: Concorde crashes killing all souls
1897: Jack London sails for the Klondike gold rush
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
