Old stock market London

Day in Review:


– Powell sticks to script

– ES Crosses 5600 level on 2 rate cuts hopes.  DOW crosses 40k.
Investors continue to bet on two rate reductions this year, with the odds for a September cut standing around 75%:

MAG7 UP 7 straight days (10 of 11)

ES up 15% from 200MDA

– Samsung debuts new phones in AI race with Apple
– AAPL to boost iPhone shipments
– Alphabet to shelve Hubspot (-12%) acquisition
– NBA finalizes $76B Deal with Disney, Amazon, Comcast
– LegalZoom -25% on CEO departure
– Tesla gains for 10th straight day

– Brit Pound hits 4-week high off Hawkish BoE Pill

– Euro Bourses rebound (FTSE +0.68% DAX +1.1% CAC +0.94%)

– Crude and Gasoline stocks draw by more than forecast

– Italy set to broker Land border deal with Israel/Lebanon

– US sends 60 F16 Fighters to Ukraine


– Wheat -5%, UK Nat Gas -1.61%


DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.71            UNCH (104.68 – 104.88) LOWS
– AUD UNCH: 67.47                         UNCH (67.33 – 67.51) Off HIGHS
– EUR down: 92.31                          -0.14% (92.31 – 92.47) Off LOWS
– GBP UP: 1.2847                             +0.47% (127.86 – 128.48) HIGHS
– JPY up 161.70                                +0.27% (161.31 – 161.80) Off HIGHS

GOLD up: $2378                                             +0.43% (2369 – 2392) MID
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up:                                40027 +1.1%, 5685 +1%, 20893 +1%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/up:                       57209 -1.25%, 3094 +0.7%
CRUDE up: $82.41                                          +1.23% (80.90 – 82.60) Off HIGHS

Coming up:



– Fed: Bostic, Musalem


–  PepsiCo, Delta Airlines


The dollar index traded within a very tight range with traders waiting for US CPI on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell largely echoed remarks from the Senate testimony on Tuesday, while noting today he has some confidence inflation in coming down, but he is not quite comfortable yet in being convinced it is coming down sustainably. The DXY hovers slightly above the 105 handle as eyes turn to US CPI; expectations are as follows: Headline M/M at 0.1%, Y/Y at 3.1%; Core M/M at 0.2%, and Y/Y at 3.4%. Elsewhere, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week are expected at 236k.

DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.71            UNCH (104.68 – 104.88) LOWS

Data in the region was thin, though, Italian Industrial Output M/M in May rebounded from a 1% decline in April, rising 0.5% (exp. 0.1%). There were no ECB remarks in the session, and as a reminder, the ECB blackout starts tomorrow ahead of the ECB rate decision next Thursday, where the Central Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4.25%. In terms of probabilities of future rate policy paths, money markets fully price another 25bps rate cut in October, but with a 75% chance of a 25bps rate cut in September, and a total of 41bps of rate cuts by year-end.

Near term, German Final Inflation data, June, Thursday.

EUR down: 92.31                            -0.14% (92.31 – 92.47) Off LOWS

The British pound rose more than 0.3% to above $1.282, nearing its highest level in four months, after Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill expressed concerns about inflation. Pill indicated that while the central bank is moving closer to cutting interest rates, services price inflation and wage growth remain uncomfortably strong. Despite some policymakers being more inclined to cut rates, Pill’s remarks indicate a cautious approach. As a result, traders have tempered expectations for an imminent rate cut.

GBP UP: 1.2847                +0.47% (127.86 – 128.48) HIGHS

Nothing of note

AUD UNCH: 67.47                           UNCH (67.33 – 67.51) Off HIGHS

USD/JPY continued its rally from yesterday, going well above 161, nearing a high of 161.80.

Japanese PPI for June Y/Y was in line at 2.9%, its highest level since August 2023, while the M/M came in softer-than-expected at 0.2% (exp. 0.4%).

Traders await Machinery Orders for May on Thursday, with the M/M expected to shift pack into the positive territory at 0.8%, although US CPI will be the highlight.

JPY up 161.70                                   +0.27% (161.31 – 161.80) Off HIGHS

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged lower to 4.28%, close to three-week lows, as traders parse the monetary policy outlook and raise bets the Fed will cut interest rates this year. During his Congressional testimony, Chair Powell stressed that the Fed would not consider cutting rates until there is clear evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% and refrained from giving any signals about the timing of future actions, but noted some progress on inflation while the labor market is “not a source of broad inflationary pressures for the economy now”.

Investors continue to bet on two rate cuts this year, with the odds for a September reduction standing around 75%.

The key CPI report due Thursday will be keenly watched for further clues on how inflationary pressures in the economy are evolving.

An early rally faded in the afternoon

GOLD up: $2378                                             +0.43% (2369 – 2392) MID


– SPX +0.07% 5,577
– NDX +0.07% 20,453
– DJI -0.13% 39,292
– RUT -0.45% 2,029

– DAX +0.99% 18,418
– CAC +0.86% 7,574
– FTSE +0.66% 8,194
– ES50 +1.11% 4,958

Sectors (W to S): Materials -1.01%, Energy -0.93%, Industrials -0.45%, Consumer Staples -0.24%, Communication Services flat, Technology flat, Real Estate flat, Consumer Discretionary +0.26%, Utilities +0.28%, Health +0.43%, Financials +0.65%

Microsoft (1.46%), Apple (+1.88%) – Microsoft has given up its seat as an observer on the board of Open AI and Apple will not take up a similar position, FT reports.
Apple (1.88%) – Aims to ship 10% more new iPhones in 2024 after a bumpy 2023, Bloomberg reports. Moreover, Apple Intelligence AI features are expected to boost iPhone demand, AAPL looks to ship 90mln iPhone 16 units in the latter half of the year.
Novo Nordisk (1.64%), Eli Lilly (+0.78%) – Only 1/4 US patients prescribed Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy or Ozempic for weight loss were still taking the drug two years later, according to an analysis cited by Reuters
–  Tesla (+0.35%) – Raised prices of Model 3 in some European countries because of EU tariffs on China-made EVs

Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 3.444 million barrels in the week ended July 5, 2024, above market expectations of a 3.0 million decrease, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed.

Additionally, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub went down by 702 thousand barrels; and gasoline stocks dropped by 2.006 million, more than the forecast of a 0.5 million draw. On the other hand, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 4.884 million barrels, the most in six months and compared with consensus for a 0.1 million increase.

CRUDE up: $82.41                                          +1.23% (80.90 – 82.60) Off HIGHS


US 1-MO 5.328 +0.004
US 6-MO 5.285 -0.004
US 1-YR 5.002 UNCH
US 5-YR 4.237 -0.009
US 10-YR 4.281 -0.017
US 30-YR 4.469 -0.025

2YR/10YR -0.34


– The Bitcoin profit and loss index is hovering around its 365-day moving average; previous crossovers to the downside have led to major market corrections (May & Nov 2021)
– Tether’s market cap growth, often considered a key driver of bull markets, has stalled.
– Large BTC holders, however, increased their stash by 6.3% over the month, the highest since April 2023.
– Germany’s aggressive selling of seized BTC also appears to be coming to a close as it has nearly emptied its wallet after seizing 50,000 BTC from Movie2k in January.

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/up:                       57209 -1.25%, 3094 +0.7%


Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

Joke of the Day:
My wife said I needed to get more in touch with my feminine side.
So I crashed the car.

Clip of the day:

(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)

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