MARKET REPORT

Brussels Stock Exchange Founded 180, July 8th

The world’s first major economic marketplace occurred in medieval times in the Low Countries, in what is now modern Belgium. At this time, deals were brokered not by grey-suited bankers furiously shouting down telephones, but by innkeepers in their tunics and cloaks.

During the 1300s. the Low Countries were sandwiched between two trading giants: the Italian republics to the south and the German Hanseatic League to the north east. The ports of Antwerp and Bruges quickly developed into important commercial hubs for international explorers and merchants.

The Venetians brought precious gems transported from the Far East, while the Germans shipped in furs and rye from as far away as Novgorod, Russia. Innkeepers in the two cities would not only provide a roof over the heads of travellers, but would also help them exchange their goods and sell their wares. By gathering information from international arrivals, the locals were able to announce exchange rates from the various banking hubs of Europe, including Paris, Venice and London.

One of the most important innkeeping trading families were the Van der Buerse, who for at least five generations from the 1200s ran the Ter Buerse inn in Bruges. Each set of foreign merchants would have their own “nation houses” on the square outside the Ter Buerse inn, where they would come out to trade or, in bad weather, take refuge indoors to haggle, over a glass of local beer. It’s said that the pivotal role played by the Van der Buerse in brokering these early economic trades led to the creation of the word “beurs”, or “bourse” in French, meaning stock market.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/59675/how-belgium-created-and-almost-lost-the-worlds-first-stock-exchange

Day in Review:

US PCE INFLATION PRINT TOMORROW! ALL EYES

Today:
– US Durable Orders up for 4th month, +0.1% May, vs +0.2% April, Exp -0.1%
– US GDP Revised UP (Slightly) +1.4% 1st Qtr Exp +1.3%
– US Weekly Jobless fell 6k to 233k Exp 236k
– US Goods Gap 2 year high $100.62B, Imports +5.7%, Exports +2.4%
– US Corporate profits fell more than expected Q1-2.7% Exp -1.7% ($2726.8B)
– US Wholesale Inventories rise most since 2022+0.6% Exp +0.1%
– US Pending Home Sales Extend Slump -2.1% Exp +2.5%
Rate cut expectations rose on ugly US data

– US Mort rates hit 3-month LOW 6.86%

– Walgreens PLUNGES by 25% post slashing profit guidance $11.84
– Levi Strauss  -16% $19.41
Levi had its biggest daily drop ever
– Amazon stock has risen 27% this year, crosses $2T in Market Cap:

– Solid 7yr auction

– Fed’s Bostic alters tune with rate cut outlook in line with Fed’s Median
– Bowman reiterates hawkish self

– US Presidential debate tonight!

– Czech Republic cuts by 50bps

– Euro Bourses drop for 3rd straight session

– Bolivian Failed Coup

– Bank of Mexico maintained its benchmark interest rate at 11.00%

– Cocoa -6.73% Rice -5.73%, Corn -4.71%, Platinum -2.42%, Natural Gas -2.04% vs Oats +5.76%, Sugar 4.54%, Coffee +1.16%

– DOLLAR DOWN SMALL, GOLD UP (SILVER UNCH), BROAD EQUITIES DOWN SMALL, TECH UP SMALL, CRYPTO UP ETH OUTPERFORMS, CRUDE SOLIDILY UP, TREASURY YEILDS DOWN

DOLLAR DX down: 105.60             -0.11% (105.71 – 105.38) Off Highs
– AUD UNCH: 66.47                         UNCH (66.73 – 66.47) LOWS
– EUR down: 93.39                          -0.22% (93.60 – 93.20) MID
– GBP up: 1.2629                             +0.12% (126.27 – 126.71) MID
– JPY UNCH: 160.71                         UNCH (160.31 – 160.81) HIGHS

GOLD up: $2331                              +1.1% (2307 – 2340) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND UNCH/up/up:          39525 UNCH, 5519 +0.1%, 20067 +0.25%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up:                    61457 +0.73%, 3438 +1.64%
CRUDE up: $81.61                           +1.12% (80.67 – 81.97) HIGHS

Upcoming:

– JAP; Tokyo CPI, Unemployment Rate
– UK GDP (Q1)
– GE; Import Prices, Retail Sales
– French, Spain, Italian CPI, German Unemployment Rate
– US PCE

Speakers:

– Fed: Barkin, Bowman

EARNINGS:

MAJORS:

DX:
The Dollar hovered around the 106 level throughout the European session, before falling in response to US data, with the DXY troughing at 105.70, though losses since have slightly pared, albeit still beneath 106.00.

US data was mixed, with a surprise upward revision to GDP Q/Q, 1.4% (exp. 1.3%, prev. 1.3%), while Durable Goods was overall soft, despite the headline rising 0.1% (exp. -0.1%).
Initial Jobless Claims fell more than expected to 233k (prev. 239k, exp. 236k), below its 4-week Average of 236k, and continued claims, for the one that coincides with the BLS survey period, rose to 1.839mln from 1.821mln, above the 1.824mln forecast, the highest level since November 2021.

Concerning Fed-speak, Bowman largely reiterated her earlier hawkish remarks in the week, noting the “Fed is not at a point where it can consider a rate cut”.

Attention in the near term looks towards the Biden/Trump debate, which is set to start at 21:00EDT/02:00BST, with ING baseline assumption regarding the Buck, as follows, “Trump is the most dollar-positive candidate due to protectionism pledges, geopolitical stance, and plans for lower taxes”.

For upcoming data, markets await the anticipated May’s Core PCE.

DOLLAR DX down: 105.60             -0.11% (105.71 – 105.38) Off Highs

EUR:
The Euro was the relative outperformer in the G10 space against the Dollar, supported by the aforementioned data, after making a new monthly low yesterday (1.0666). EUR/USD peaked at 1.07264, erasing yesterday’s losses although gains have trimmed since.

Data front: Economic Sentiment in the Euro area fell to 95.9, below market expectations of 96.2.

Elsewhere, ECB’s Kazimir said he ” expects a quiet summer on ECB rates” and can expect one more rate cut this year, Kazaks said that market rate bets are a pretty acceptable scenario; money markets price 48bps of rate cuts by year-end.

Of note, OAT/Bund spread rose 72.47 to 81.30, just below recent highs ahead of the first round of French elections on June 30th.

EUR down: 93.39                            -0.22% (93.60 – 93.20) MID

GBP
GBP/USD pushed back above its 50DMA (1.2640), to highs of 1.2670.

GBP up: 1.2629                 +0.12% (126.27 – 126.71) MID

AUD:
Flat on session, nothing of note.

AUD UNCH: 66.47                           UNCH (66.73 – 66.47) LOWS

YEN:
Markets continued to speculate entry points for the BoJ to intervene.

Concerning Japanese commentary, BoJ’s Deputy Governor said weak JPY is an upward factor for prices and is closely monitoring in conducting monpol.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported the BoJ is reportedly conducting a survey of Japanese government bond players over bond-tapering plans, with some participants who met with the BoJ earlier this month, calling on the bank to trim bond purchases in several stages to enhance market liquidity; as a reminder, the BoJ is to hold a meeting with bond market participants across 9-10th of July. USD/JPY fell to session lows of 160.29, and pared losses post US data.

Yen participants look towards Japan’s Unemployment rate (exp. 2.6%), Prelim Industrial Output for May (exp. 2.0%), and Tokyo CPI.

JPY UNCH: 160.71                           UNCH (160.31 – 160.81) HIGHS

GOLD/SILVER
Gold rebounded to $2,325 per ounce on Thursday after having tested the lowest in nearly three months earlier in the session, as markets digested a batch of key data for hints of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook this year.
Continuing unemployment claims rose to their highest since late 2021, sounding the alarm that the US labor market is softening from the tight levels in its post-pandemic recovery.
The results were consistent with the markets’ loose consensus that the Federal Reserve is due to commence its cutting cycle in its September decision before delivering a second rate cut this year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion assets. The outlook of lower interest rates elsewhere also supported precious metals, with the BoE expected to cut after the UK’s election next month, while the PBoC is expected to deliver more rate cuts and set the backdrop for economic stimulus.

GOLD up: $2331                              +1.1% (2307 – 2340) HIGHS

EQUITIES:

US:
– SPX flat 5,483
– NDX +0.19% 19,789
– DJI flat 39,164
– RUT +1.0% 2,038

EURO:
– DAX +0.28% 18,205
– CAC -1.03% 7,531
– FTSE -0.55% 8,180
– ES50 -0.27% at 4,903

SECTORS (W to S): Consumer Staples -0.5%, Materials -0.32%, Financials -0.25%, Health -0.17%, Industrials flat, Technology flat, Utilities +0.14%, Energy +0.25%, Communication Services +0.77%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Real Estate +0.93%.

STOCKS:
BANKS – All banks passed the Fed stress tests, although Goldman Sachs (GS) was lower as it has the second-worst credit card portfolio
Rivian (-1.83%) – CFO said co. has under contract over USD 200mln of regulatory credit sales for 2024, which gives confidence in a meaningful profit opportunity.
Walgreen Boots Alliance (-22.19%) – Missed on EPS, cut FY24 EPS view as it expects recent headwinds to persist into FY24, and plans major US store closures.
Levi Strauss (-15.40%) – Missed on revenue and reaffirmed FY adj. EPS view with midpoint below expectations.
Amazon (+2.19%) – Said that Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox game pass ultimate members can access & play cloud-enabled games directly via the Xbox app on select Fire TV devices.

OIL:
WTI (Q4) SETTLED 0.84 HIGHER AT 81.74/BBL; BRENT (U4) SETTLED USD 0.79 HIGHER AT 85.26/BBL

The crude complex was firmer on Thursday as it benefitted from the Dollar weakness amid light energy-specific newsflow, as participants await PCE.
As such, WTI and Brent crept higher throughout the European session to hit peaks of USD 82.04/bbl and 85.58/bbl, respectively, before paring off highs through the US afternoon, albeit still settling well in the green.

Geopolitical updates were light, with the latest update coming via Israel’s PM Netanyahu who, according to Bloomberg, has indicated he foresees a prolonged battle ahead in the efforts to eliminate Hamas.

Separately, according to the FT, US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kyiv with up to eight Patriot air defence systems, dramatically improving its ability to counter Russian air strikes.

Elsewhere, and this time on LNG, Russia’s Novatek is to start the delivery of equipment for the next phase of Arctic LNG-2 facilities in late July, while BBG reported that Russia is showing signs of building LNG shadow fleet amid sanctions.

Looking ahead, participants await core PCE on Friday as well as the weekly Baker Hughes rig count. Oil report courtesy of newsquark.

CRUDE up: $81.61                           +1.12% (80.67 – 81.97) HIGHS

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.335 +0.005
US 6-MO 5.328 -0.017
US 1-YR 5.114 -0.028
US 5-YR 4.299 -0.038
US 10-YR 4.286 -0.030
US 30-YR 4.425 -0.022

2YR/10YR -0.43

CRYPTO
BTC HELD the key $60k level:

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up:                    61457 +0.73%, 3438 +1.64%

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

Joke of the Day:
I play golf. I’m not good at golf, I never got good. I never got a hole-in-one. But I did hit a guy. And that’s way more satisfying. You’re supposed to yell “Fore!” but I was too busying mumbling “There ain’t no way that’s gonna hit him.”

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