MARKET REPORT

Review:

Yields significantly lower, stocks, gold, oil, and crypto higher and the dollar down with rate-cut expectations re-ignited

This was The Dow’s seventh straight daily gain – the longest win streak since July 2023

– Daly echoes Powell on labour market and policy

– Strong 30yr auction

– Dovish BoE

– No Israel/Hamas ceasefire/hostage deal

DOLLAR DX down: 105.10             -0.3% (105.63 – 105.10) LOWS
– AUD up: 66.19                               +0.6% (65.66 – 66.21) HIGHS
– EUR down: 92.72                          -0.3% (93.21 – 92.70) LOWS
– GBP up: 125.23                             +0.2% (124.48 – 125.25) HIGHS
– JPY UNCH: 155.41                         UNCH (155.94 – 155.41) LOWS

GOLD UP: $2350                                             1.25% ($2313 – $2350) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND up:                                             39550 +0.9%, 5240 +0.5%, 18214 +0.16%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH:                            UNCH 62400, UNCH 3010
CRUDE up: $79.63                                          +0.8% ($79.79 – $78.94) Off HIGHS

Upcoming:

Japanese Household Spending

UK GDP, Services, Manufacturing Output

Chinese Money Supply

Speakers:

ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson
BoE’s Pill
Fed’s Goolsbee, Bowman, Logan, Kashkari, Barr

EARNINGS:

MAJORS:

DX:
The Dollar sold off on Thursday after a surprise jump in initial jobless claims to the highest level since August of 2023 at 231k. The data set the tone for the session which saw the buck sell off and yields fall with perhaps more weight put onto this data this week given the lack of other tier 1 data seen. It also adds to a series of softer labour market reports, including JOLTS, NFP and some cautious commentary in the Services ISM report. The DXY fell from a peak of 105.74 on Thursday but still sits above 105.00.

DOLLAR DX down: 105.10             -0.3% (105.63 – 105.10) LOWS

No call

AUD:
Antipodes saw gains thanks to the softer buck and upside in US equities seen post jobless claims; AUD/USD reclaimed 0.6600 while NZD/USD reclaimed 0.6000 after briefly dipping beneath it in the morning.

AUD up: 66.19                                 +0.6% (65.66 – 66.21) HIGHS

No call

GBP
Volatile on account of the BOE rate decision. A dovish dissent and ensuing commentary from BoE Governor Bailey opened up the door to cuts at coming meetings, but data will determine whether they cut in June or not. Cable had attempted to reclaim 1.2500 ahead of the BoE but the release sent Cable to lows of 1.2443 before it started to pare with market positioning bearish-sided in Sterling. The US jobless claims data then took Cable north of 1.2500 on account of the Dollar weakness.

GBP up: 125.23                 +0.2% (124.48 – 125.25) HIGHS

No call

EUR
The Euro got a boost from the weaker greenback after the dovish jobless claims data with a lack of tier 1 drivers out of the Eurozone today.

EUR down: 92.72                            -0.3% (93.21 – 92.70) LOWS

No call

YEN:
Flat vs the weaker Dollar with USD/JPY trading between 155.17-95. The BoJ SOO revealed a member said if trend inflation accelerates, the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing (a similar line to BoJ Governor Ueda earlier in the week), but noted the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing but an accommodative financial environment is likely to continue for the time being. The weaker dollar and lower US yields kept the Yen from weakening above 156.00 but even given the environment, it still failed to see gains vs the Dollar.

JPY UNCH: 155.41                           UNCH (155.94 – 155.41) LOWS

No call

GOLD & SILVER:

Surge in Gold led by new rate cut hopes. Both 2024 & 2025 Rate cut hopes jumped equating into a firm one way upwards traffic flow for the yellow inflationary hedge.

GOLD UP: $2350                                             1.25% ($2313 – $2350) HIGHS

No call

EQUITIES:

US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.51% 5,214
– NDX +0.16% 18,113
– DJI +0.85% 39,388
– RUT +0.90% at 2,074

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +1.07% 18,685.35
– FTSE: +0.32% 8,380.63
– CAC: +0.69% 8,187.65
– ES50: +0.32% 5,054.25
– IBEX 35: -0.95% 11,047.11

SECTORS (S to W): Real Estate +2.31%, Utilities +1.52%, Energy +1.36%, Materials +1.08%, Industrials +0.92%, Health +0.79%, Consumer Staples +0.76%, Financials +0.69%, Consumer Discretionary +0.69%, Communication Services +0.38%, Technology -0.25%.

STOCKS
Airbnb -7%: Next quarter top line midpoint guidance shy of consensus.
Robinhood -3%: Q1 earnings metrics surpassed expectations.
Boeing +0.5%: US SEC is probing Boeing (BA) safety claims after a panel blew off the Alaska Airlines (ALK) flight in January, according to Bloomberg.
Apple +1%: To use its own chips in cloud to power AI features in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
Tesla -1.5%: Escalating China job cuts with more layoffs this week, according to Bloomberg.

OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLES USD 0.27 HIGHER AT 79.26/BBL; BRENT (N4) SETTLES USD 0.30 HIGHER AT 83.88/BBL

Oil prices were modestly firmer on Thursday, with gains out of APAC trade faded through the US session, while the softer Dollar provided some support. WTI and Brent front-month futures hit session peaks of USD 79.80/bbl and 84.33/bbl, respectively, before settling slightly off their lows. In China, the latest trade data saw Chinese oil imports rise in April to 10.88mln BPD, up 5.45% Y/Y, according to Reuters citing official data. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israeli officials announced that their delegation in Cairo had departed after it presented to mediators its reservations regarding the Hamas proposal, saying Israel will press ahead with its operation in Rafah and elsewhere in the Gaza strip as planned, which capped some of the downside in oil in the US session. Later on, a US State Department official said the US continues to engage with Israel about other options in Rafah instead of a major military operation and it continues to work to try to finalise a ceasefire deal text, but conceded the effort is “incredibly difficult”. Oil report courtesy of newsquark

CRUDE up: $79.63                                          +0.8% ($79.79 – $78.94) Off HIGHS

BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.363 -0.006
US 6-MO 5.366 UNCH
US 1-YR 5.143 -0.009
US 5-YR 4.471 -0.03
US 10-YR 4.457 -0.026
US 30-YR 4.613 -0.019

2YR/10YR -0.36

CRYPTO

– Musk enables Dogecoin payments for Tesla. Is X next?

– Robinhood analysts pleasantly surprised by Crypto volume

– Solana leads the pack +7%

– concern over KOL (Key opinion Leaders) taking options in start-ups and flogging them as ‘Alpha’

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH:                             UNCH 62400, UNCH 3010

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm