MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Average 10yr US auction
– Riksbank cut by 25bps, as expected
– Larger than expected EIA crude draw
– AAPL China iPhone shipments rise
– SHOP & UBER outlook disappoints
– INTC alters Q2 guidance after US imposes restrictions
– A couple of negative TSLA headlines
DOLLAR DX up: 105.43 +0.12% (105.53 – 105.32) MID
– AUD down: 65.77 -0.3% (65.59 – 65.86) Off Highs
– EUR up: 93.04 +0.1% (93.12 – 92.94) MID
– GBP down: 124.94 -0.1% (124.69 – 125.05) Off Highs
– JPY up: 155.63 +0.69% (155.07 – 155.63) HIGHS
GOLD down: $2316 -0.3% ($2312 – $2328) Off Lows
DOW/ES/ND mixed: 39183 +0.4%, 5508 -0.1%, 18159 -0.2%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down: -2.25% 61694, -3.5% 2954
CRUDE up: $79.18 +1% ($77 – $79.18) HIGHS
Upcoming:
– EZ Ascension Day (closures across Nasdaq Nordic)
– Chinese Trade Data
– BoJ SOO; BoE Policy Announcement; BoE DMP
Speakers:
BoE’s Bailey, Pill
ECB’s Cipollone, De Guindos
Fed’s Daly
EARNINGS:
Enel, Pirelli, Ferrovial, Telefonica, ACS, Flutter, Constellation Energy.
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar saw a slight bid on Wednesday with DXY trading either side of 105.50 with the only data being March Wholesale Sales which fell 1.3% after rising 2.0% in the prior month, while wholesale inventory revisions declined 0.4%, as expected. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model (Q2) was also updated to incorporate last week’s jobs report, ISM non-manufacturing index, auto sales and wholesale trade data to lift the tracker to 4.2%% from 3.3%.
There were remarks from Fed’s Collins who gave a set of neutral remarks, noting policy is well positioned and there are risks to cutting too soon. Governor Cook meanwhile focused on Financial Stability.
DOLLAR DX up: 105.43 +0.12% (105.53 – 105.32) MID
No call
AUD:
AUD was the laggard with the post-RBA weakness continuing.
AUD down: 65.77 -0.3% (65.59 – 65.86) Off Highs
No call
GBP
Pound traders await the BOE Rate decision, minutes and MPR due on Thursday
– GBP down: 124.94 -0.1% (124.69 – 125.05) Off Highs
No call
EUR
There were several ECB speakers who all largely sang from the same hymn sheet with a June cut seen as a certain. Wunsch does note there is a path for rate cuts this year and suggests there is room for at least two 25bp rate cuts this year (market currently prices in nearly 3 rate cuts). Holzmann noted that if the time comes in June, further steps will certainly follow, but he does not see a reason to lower rates too quickly. On data, German industrial output data fell 0.4% in March, a touch better than the -0.6% forecast but down from the prior, revised lower, 1.7% gain.
EUR up: 93.04 +0.1% (93.12 – 92.94) MID
No call
YEN:
The Yen saw further weakness and was the G10 laggard against the Buck with USD/JPY rising back above 155 to a peak of 155.67 on Wednesday. Note, BoJ Governor Ueda spoke overnight, largely reiterating recent commentary although he did add that the BoJ may need to respond via monetary policy if such an impact from Yen moves affects trend inflation. He also noted, however, that he does not see the Yen moves having a large impact on this so far, but there is a risk the impact could become more significant in the future. Ueda also noted that the central bank will not necessarily wait until inflation achieves their forecasts in 1.5-2 years to raise interest rates.
JPY up: 155.63 +0.69% (155.07 – 155.63) HIGHS
No call
GOLD & SILVER:
Whip-saw session saw overnight weakness squeezed into a rally which faded into the close.
GOLD down: $2316 -0.3% ($2312 – $2328) Off Lows
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.00% 5,187
– NDX -0.04% 18,085
– DJIA +0.44% 39,056
– RUT -0.46% 2,055
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.31% 18,488.07
– FTSE: +0.49% 8,354.05
– CAC: +0.69% 8,131.41
– ES50: +0.46% 5,039.15
– IBEX: +0.65% 11,153.00
SECTORS (S to W): Utilities +1.05%, Financials +0.4%, Technology +0.23%, Industrials +0.03%, Energy -0.12%, Communication Services -0.17%, Consumer Staples -0.27%, Health -0.33%, Consumer Discretionary -0.41%, Materials -0.44%, Real Estate -0.9%
STOCKS
– Shopify -18.5%: Gave a disappointing 2024 outlook, noting it will be impacted by the sales of its logistics businesses
– Uber Technologies -5.5%: Posted a surprise loss per share and gross bookings missed, with the Q2 outlook for gross bookings short
– Lyft +7%: EPS, revenue, gross bookings, and active riders topped accompanied by strong guidance
– Apple flat: iPhone shipments in China rebounded with 12% growth in March after price cuts
– Tesla -1.5%: China-made EVs in April fell 18% Y/Y or 30.2% M/M. Separately, US prosecutors are reportedly examining whether Tesla committed securities and wire fraud in a criminal probe of self-driving claims.
– Trip Advisor -28.5%: Announced its special committee had not found any potential deals with third parties that are in the best interest of shareholders.
OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLED USD 0.61 HIGHER AT 78.99/BBL; BRENT (N4) SETTLED USD 0.42 HIGHER AT 83.58/BBL
The crude complex saw gains on Wednesday amid tailwinds from crude stocks drawing more than anticipated. WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 76.89/bbl and 81.71/bbl, respectively, in the overall downbeat European session, and although oil was already paring off worst levels, the weekly EIA data gave the complex the needed impetus to wipe out losses and extend higher to peaks of USD 79.15 and 83.82/bbl. In terms of the metrics, crude drew 1.362mln (exp. -1.066mln), while distillates and gasoline both saw surprise builds, in fitting with the private inventory numbers on Tuesday night. Whilst participants are awaiting a significant Middle East development/breakthrough, the latest update came via Alsharq News citing official Egyptian media, who said discussions continue in Cairo from ten in the morning, amid notable agreement on some controversial points. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
CRUDE up: $79.18 +1% ($77 – $79.18) HIGHS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.371 -0.001
US 6-MO 5.366 UNCH
US 1-YR 5.157 +0.01
US 5-YR 4.503 +0.032
US 10-YR 4.5 +0.039
US 30-YR 4.644 0.039
2YR/10YR -0.34
CRYPTO
“Still a Sell.”
Yesterdays Market Report.
– Chainanalysis sets up Duai HQ
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down: -2.25% 61694, -3.5% 2954
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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