Quiet Day

– US stocks extend gains for 4th day
– DOW/Russell & Canadian TSX hit 4 week highs
– US economic optimism hits lowest level in 5 months

– DAX rises to 6 week high, FTSE record high

– Fedspeak:
“It’s a little too soon to declare that we’re definitely stalled out [on disininflation],” Kashkari says on Bloomberg Television.
– “The most likely scenario is we sit here for an extended period of time,” he added later at the Milken Institute Global Conference.
– “If inflation starts to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labor market then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates.”
– “Or if we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at 3% and that we need to go higher [in rates], we would do that if we needed to,” he added.

– Dovishly perceived RBA hold

– Russia touted potential production increases, before Novak later denies

– AAPL developing AI chips for data centres & announces new iPad Air

DOLLAR DX up: 105.24                  +0.33% (104.92 – 105.33) Off Highs
– AUD down: 65.98                         -0.4% (66.31 – 65.88) Off Lows
– EUR UNCH: 92.95                         UNCH (92.68 – 93.02) Off Highs
– GBP down: 125.08                        -0.4% (125.65 – 125.03) Off Lows
– JPY up: 154.68                               +0.53% (154.00 – 154.75) Highs

GOLD down: $2322                                       -0.4% ($2332 – $2318) Off Lows
DOW/ES/ND FLAT:                                        39020 UNCH, 5213 UNCH, 18204 UNCH
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down small:      -0.5% 63005, 0.9% 3049
CRUDE down: $78.30                                    0.23% ($77.62 – $79.01) MID


– German Industrial Orders

– US Wholesale Sales


– ECB’s Wunsch, de Cos

– Fed’s Cook, Jefferson, Collins


BMW, Munich Re, Henkel, Fresenius, Siemens Energy, Continental, Evonik, Puma, Lanxess, Bechtle, Emerson Electric, Airbnb, Uber.


Participants await fresh impetus following the slide on the back of the dovish FOMC and soft NFP ahead of next Wednesday’s key US CPI release. Although it did not move the dial or garner a market reaction, Kashkari (non-voter, hawk) spoke numerous times noting the most likely scenario is the Fed stays put for an extended period on rates; if disinflation comes again, or saw marked weakening in job market that might lead to rate cuts. Looking ahead, Fed’s Jefferson (voter), Collins (2025 voter), and Cook (voter) are on the speaker docket for Wednesday, absent of any notable data releases.

DOLLAR DX up: 105.24                  +0.33% (104.92 – 105.33) Off Highs

No call

RBA failed to deliver a hawkish pivot, and the accompanying statement acknowledged the slow progress on inflation. Overall, the bank kept rates unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, and reiterated it remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and is not ruling anything in or out. In terms of forecasts, it raised its inflation forecasts for 2024 but trimmed forecasts for GDP and unemployment, while the RBA’s forecasts assumed that rates will stay at 4.35% until mid-2025 which is nine months longer than previously assumed. In wake of the rate decision, Bullock stated they must be vigilant on inflation risks and the board discussed the option of hiking. AUD/USD traded within pretty tight ranges with a peak of 0.6643 and a low of 0.6588, with the latter as the Dollar saw strength in the NY afternoon.

AUD down: 65.98                            -0.4% (66.31 – 65.88) Off Lows

No call

GBP saw slightly steeper losses than the EUR, as Cable tested 1.25 to the downside, but managed to defend the psychological level as the EUR did with 1.0750. On the data docket, German industrial orders for March surprisingly declined, while EU retail sales was better than feared. For the Pound, S&P Global PMIs beat for April, but BRC data confirmed subdued retail trends – printing -4.4% Y/Y, shy of the consensus and previous at 2.0% and 3.2%, respectively. Pound traders are now gearing up for Thursday’s BoE with Gilts playing catch up to peer strength today after the long weekend in the UK.

EUR UNCH: 92.95                            UNCH (92.68 – 93.02) Off Highs
GBP down: 125.08                          -0.4% (125.65 – 125.03) Off Lows

No call

JPY was the G10 underperformer as the cross hit a high of 154.75, with Japanese Business Lobby Keidanren Chief Tokura overnight noting USD/JPY above 150 is “too much”, and while he does not know if the authorities intervened in the FX market, if they did, thinks timing was very good. Moreover, BoJ Governor Ueda had a regular exchange of views with Japanese PM Kishida, and he is to closely monitor how a weak JPY will impact prices.

JPY up: 154.68                                 +0.53% (154.00 – 154.75) Highs

No call


Unremarkable session, nothing of note

GOLD down: $2322                                       -0.4% ($2332 – $2318) Off Lows

No call


–  SPX +0.13% 5,187
– NDX -0.01% 18,091
– DJIA +0.08% 38,884
– RUT +0.19% 2,064

– DAX: +1.45% 18,438.53
– FTSE: +1.22% 8,313.67
– CAC: +0.99% 8,075.68
– ES50: +1.14% 5,013.65
– IBEX 35: +1.50% 11,080.90

SECTORS (S to W): Materials +1.17%, Utilities +1.12%, Consumer Staples +1.09%, Real Estate +1.07%, Health +0.81%, Communication Services +0.57%, Financials +0.32%, Industrials +0.24%, Energy -0.14%, Technology -0.53%, Consumer Discretionary -0.56%.

Disney -9.5%: Disney+ subscribers short and does not expect core subscriber growth at Disney+ in Q3, despite expectations for 1mln growth.
Palantir Technologies -15%: Top line outlook disappoints.
Peloton +15.5%: PE firms circle Peloton for potential buyout, CNBC reports.
Tesla -4%: To shut down German plant production for four days, according to Handelsblatt.


Oil prices hit their lowest levels since mid-March on Tuesday, with the market becoming desensitised to Rafah headlines while Russia touted potential production increases. Price action was choppy, however, with WTI (M4) and Brent (N4) futures hitting troughs of USD 77.55/bbl and 82.41/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning before reversing to highs of 79.17/bbl and 83.88/bbl, respectively, in the afternoon in lack of an obvious catalyst. In the European morning, some downside was seen on headlines via Interfax that Russian Deputy PM Novak had said the possibility of raising production under the OPEC+ deal is being analysed; however, Novak later on said there are no discussions about oil output increase at OPEC+. Elsewhere, the latest EIA STEO saw it cut its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth by 30k BPD to a 0.92mln BPD Y/Y increase whilst raising its forecast for 2025 world oil demand growth by 70k BPD to a 1.42mln BPD Y/Y increase. Attention is now on the weekly US energy inventory, with the EIA data on Wednesday after the private released later on Tuesday, where current expectations (bbls) see crude stocks drawing 1.1mln, gasoline drawing 1.3mln, and distillates drawing 1.1mln. Oil report courtesy of Newsquark

CRUDE down: $78.30                                    0.23% ($77.62 – $79.01) MID


US 1-MO 5.375 +0.005
US 6-MO 5.366 -0.003
US 1-YR 5.147 +0.013
US 5-YR 4.473 -0.010
US 10-YR 4.461 -0.028
US 30-YR 4.602 -0.04

2YR/10YR -0.37


Nothing to see here 😉

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down small:       -0.5% 63005, 0.9% 3049

Still a Sell.


Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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