MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Trump convicted on all 34 counts. Awaits sentencing.
– US Q1 GDP and Core PCE revised lower
– US Weekly jobless Claims rise slightly more than expected
– US Fed’s Williams sticks to script
– Rate cut expectations increased slightly.
– US to restrain AI chips sales to the Middle East, NVDA tanks
– OPEC+ sources suggest extension of voluntary cuts; Large crude stock draw, but gasoline and distillates see large build.
– Costco beats earnings, shares close all-time high
– NVDA down 4% on regulation on AI chip sales to Middle East
– SalesForce plunges by 20%
– Dell -16% despite beat on expectations
DOLLAR DX down: 104.71 -0.3% (105.13 – 104.57) Off LOWS
– AUD up: 66.32 +0.3% (65.91 – 66.47) Off HIGHS
– EUR down: 92.30 -0.25% (92.67 – 92.18) Off LOWS
– GBP up: 127.31 +0.2% (126.81 – 127.47) HIGHS
– JPY down: 156.83 -0.47% (157.42 – 156.41) Off LOWS
GOLD UNCH: $2363 UNCH ($2344 – $2372) Off HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND down/down/down: 38189 -0.87%, 5247 -0.7%, 18590 -1.1%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up/UNCH: +1.7% 68460 , UNCH 3743
CRUDE down: $77.89 -1.7% ($79.35 – $77.65) Off LOWS
Upcoming:
– Japanese Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales
– Chinese PMIs
– German Import Prices, Retail Sales
– French CPI
– EZ CPI
– US PCE (Apr)
– Canadian GDP
Speakers:
– Fed: Bostic
EARNINGS:
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar sold off on Thursday with a paring of UST yields supporting the move, particularly in the wake of the second estimate of GDP which saw revisions lower to the GDP estimate, in line with forecasts, while Core PCE eased beneath the consensus to 3.6% from 3.7%, despite expectations for an unchanged print.
Attention turns to the April Core PCE data on Friday for a more timely update on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Fed’s Williams and Bostic spoke too, albeit neither added anything fresh.
DOLLAR DX down: 104.71 -0.3% (105.13 – 104.57) Off LOWS
No call
EUR:
The Euro was stronger on Thursday, initially weakening early in the session but bounced off its 200DMA, showing no sustained reaction to Spain’s CPI Y/Y flash NSA (MAY) report and a stickier Core print. The Euro showed little reaction initially to the release of the EZ’s easing unemployment rate (record low print), economic sentiment miss, and the rise in consumer inflation expectations and selling price expectations. That said, the Euro strength has continued to strengthen throughout the day as the dollar took a hit.
Markets await the EZ’s Inflation Rate Y/Y flash and US Core PCE on Friday.
EUR down: 92.30 -0.25% (92.67 – 92.18) Off LOWS
No call
AUD:
the Aussie was a cyclical outperformer after stronger-than-expected CapEx data overnight. Note, commentary from Rabobank suggests to “delay building long AUD positions until after the flurry of June central banks meetings” as there will then be more clarity on the rate paths from global central banks (Fed, ECB, BOE). The desk fears sticky US inflation could weigh on AUD/USD in the near term, but nonetheless see the pair at 0.68 on a six-month view before moving to 0.70 early next year. The cyclical upside came despite downbeat equity price action with the weaker buck supporting the move
AUD up: 66.32 +0.3% (65.91 – 66.47) Off HIGHS
GBP
GBP also saw mild gains with Cable trading either side of 1.2700.
GBP up: 127.31 +0.2% (126.81 – 127.47) HIGHS
YEN:
Nothing of note to report
JPY down: 156.83 -0.47% (157.42 – 156.41) Off LOWS
No call
GOLD/SILVER
Nothing of note to report.
GOLD UNCH: $2363 UNCH ($2344 – $2372) Off HIGHS
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.60% 5,235
– NDX -1.06% 18,539
– DJI -0.86% 38,111
– RUT +1.00% 2,056
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.22% 18,514.08
– FTSE: +0.59% 8,231.05
– CAC: + 0.55% 7,978.51
– ES50: +0.42% 4,984.25
– IBEX 35: +1.73% 11,338.20
SECTORS (W to S): Utilities +1.41%, Real Estate +1.51%, Materials +0.83%, Industrials +0.7%, Financials +0.61%, Consumer Staples +0.26%, Energy +0.24%, Consumer Discretionary +0.18%, Health +0.07%, Communication Services -1.06%, Technology -2.45%..
STOCKS
– Salesforce Inc: Beat on EPS but missed on revenue while guidance heavily disappointed expectations
– NVIDIA: Says that while supply for H100 continued to improve, we are still constrained on H200.
– Tesla: Preparing to register FSD autonomous driving in China, according to sources cited by Reuters. TSLA also mulls selling FSD software as a monthly subscription, sources said.
– Apple: Next-gen operating systems will feature Project Greymatter, bringing a multitude of AI-related enhancements, according to Apple Insider.
– American Airlines: CEO announced he intends to revamp a new sales strategy that has seen less revenue than expected from corporate travellers and travel agencies, according to FT. Note, co. cut guidance on Wednesday.
OIL:
Crude oil prices plunged on growth fears (GDP) and a smaller crude build than API reported…
CRUDE down: $77.89 -1.7% ($79.35 – $77.65) Off LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.365 UNCH
US 6-MO 5.374 UNCH
US 1-YR 5.202 UNCH
US 5-YR 4.569 UNCH
US 10-YR 4.55 -0.004
US 30-YR 4.683 UNCH
2YR/10YR -0.38
CRYPTO
– Despite Warren Buffets hatred of Crypto Berkshire has made substantial profits in Brazilian fintech Nu Holdings
– Despite Coinbase posting higher-than-forecast first-quarter revenue and profit, the largest US crypto exchange’s consumer trading volume was $56 billion, compared with a peak of $177 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 at the height of crypto’s previous bull run
– Bitcoin’s trading volume — which feeds Coinbase’s trading-fee revenue — has remained muted since the world’s largest cryptocurrency hit all time-highs in March following the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up/UNCH: +1.7% 68460 , UNCH 3743
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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