MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Treasury Yields spike leading to Equity sell off post government 7yr Auction flop
– 10-yr yield tops key 4.5% level hitting 4.63%
– concern Fed will hold IR higher longer
Rate cut hopes decline
– Surprising boost in US consumer confidence
– Mixed bag of regional Fed survey data:
– Richmond Manufacturing good
– Richmond Biz Conditions bad
– Dallas Services bad
– US Mortgage Apps plunge
– Fed Beige Book notes prices increased at a modest pace
– Hawkish comments Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel Kashkari
– SI hits 7yr high hitting $32 ounce
– Nvidia hits another record high
– Pound eases from 2-month high
– German inflation rate 2.4% as expected
– Euro bourses lower, CAC & UK 1 month low
– Aussie 10yr Bond Yield rises by 20bps
– Palm Oil crashes by 59%
– Beth Hammack to replace Fed’s Mester
– Hot Aussie inflation
– Dollar/Treasury Yields up, Gold/Equities/Crude/Crypto down.
DOLLAR DX up: 105.055 +0.5% (104.51 – 105.08) HIGHS
– AUD down: 66.14 -0.5% (66.62 – 66.13) LOWS
– EUR up: 92.56 +0.5% (92.07 – 92.57) HIGHS
– GBP down: 127.03 -0.5% (127.72 – 127.00) LOWS
– JPY up: 157.69 +0.34% (157.02 – 157.69) HIGHS
GOLD down: $2336 -0.84% ($2361 – $2335) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND down/down/down: 38321 -1.6%, 5279 -0.85%, 18791 -0.8%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down: -1.7% 67198 , -2.3% 3749
CRUDE down: $79.01 -1% ($80.60 – $79.01) LOWS
Upcoming:
– EZ Sentiment, EZ Unemployment Rate
– US: GDP Estimates
– PCE (Q1)
– IJC
– Advance Goods Trade Balance
Speakers:
– Fed: Williams, Logan
– RBNZ: Orr
EARNINGS:
Marvell, Dollar General, Best Buy
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar saw decent strength on Wednesday, from its open of 104.67 to hit a high of 105.090 with firmer UST yields supporting the move. Heading into the month end the dollar looks set to see its first monthly decline since December 2023, where a string of hot inflation reports pushed back Fed rate cut expectations in Q1. Highlights left in the week include the 2nd estimate of US GDP growth on Thursday and US
Core PCE on Friday, as well as several Fed speakers, including Williams at the Economic Club of NY on Thursday.
Dollar back near one-month highs
DOLLAR DX up: 105.055 +0.5% (104.51 – 105.08) HIGHS
No call
EUR:
Focus in Europe was on Germany’s CPI print, which was in line with market expectations, and a stronger German GFK Consumer Sentiment release. The Euro initially saw downside on the German State CPI data although there was little impact on ECB pricing. Subsequently, the downside had reversed with EUR/USD testing earlier peaks of 1.0860 after the German national print was released which saw a slightly hotter than forecast HICP print, although the CPI M/M was a touch softer. The Euro then fell victim to the stronger buck as US yields rose throughout the rest of the session.
Attention turns to Spanish and French flash numbers due later in the week ahead of the EZ Flash HICP print on Friday.
EUR up: 92.56 +0.5% (92.07 – 92.57) HIGHS
No call
AUD:
The Aussie, and to some extent the Kiwi, saw short lived strength in reaction to Australia’s hotter weighted CPI release overnight, although the strength faded and both the AUD and NZD currencies resumed their weakness, tracking risk appetite.
AUD down: 66.14 -0.5% (66.62 – 66.13) LOWS
GBP
EUR/GBP fell sub 0.8500 and briefly beneath the 2023 low of 0.8492 to the lowest level since August 2022 at 0.9482. EUR/GBP has been edging lower on account of the divergence of BoE and ECB policy expectations, with the ECB set to cut rates next week with the first BoE rate cut not convincingly priced until either November or December.
Another risk to bare in mind is the UK General Election on 4th July.
GBP down: 127.03 -0.5% (127.72 – 127.00) LOWS
YEN:
The Yen was softer vs the stronger buck on Wednesday in the face of rising US yields (yields rose to monthly highs). The moves weighed on the Yen, but the Japanese currency fared better than cyclical currencies which were hit by the downbeat risk environment. USD/JPY remained above 157.00, seeing a peak of 157.74.
There were remarks from BoJ Board Member Adachi, who stated that if excessive Yen falls are prolonged and expected to affect the achievement of the BoJ’s price target, responding with monetary policy becomes an option. He did note that they must absolutely avoid raising rates prematurely and that they are not yet at a stage where they are convinced there is sustained achievement of their price target so they must maintain accommodative conditions. Adachi also noted at some point in the future the BoJ will likely reduce JGB purchases, noting it is desirable to reduce purchases in several stages. On consumer inflation, he said it is slowing now but is likely to re-accelerate from summer through autumn this year. If Yen declines accelerate or become prolonged, inflation could re-accelerate faster than expected and may require BoJ to accelerate interest rate hikes.
JPY up: 157.69 +0.34% (157.02 – 157.69) HIGHS
No call
GOLD/SILVER
Gold got punched down with flows dumping into Treasuries chasing higher yields.
SI however held its ground and closed post the $32 handle not seen since 2017
GOLD down: $2336 -0.84% ($2361 – $2335) LOWS
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.74% 5,267
– NDX -0.70% 18,737
– DJI -1.06% 38,442
– RUT -1.48% at 2,036
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -1.09% 18,474.88
– FTSE: -0.86% 8,183.07
– CAC: -1.52% 7,935.03
– ES50: -1.31% 4,964.25
– IBEX35: -1.16% 11,145.10
SECTORS (W to S): Energy -1.76%, Industrials -1.42%, Materials -1.42%, Utilities -1.32%, Real Estate -0.92%, Financials -0.85%, Health -0.80%, Consumer Staples -0.75%, Consumer Discretionary -0.56%, Communication Services -0.56%, Technology -0.36%.
STOCKS
– Chewy +26% Beat on Q1 24 adj.EPS and revenue; announced a share repurchase programme.
– Boeing -1.25% FAA head to meet on quality concerns
– American Airlines -14.5% Cut Q2 EPS guidance and total revenue per available seat mile guidance.
– Nvidia +1.25% short dated call option squeeze
– ConocoPhilips -4.1% to buy Marathon Oil +7.5%
– Abercrombie & Finch +26% Earnings beat and raised guidance
– Dicks Sporting Goods +15% Earnings beat and it raised EPS guidance
– Robinhood Authorised a USD 1bln share repurchase programme
– Amazon Bid to dismiss FTC lawsuit was rejected by a US judge
– Walmart files reveal wrong prices charged at 1600 stores.
– General Motors says it will start sales in Autumn 2024 of its new Cadillac 2025 Optiq, selling in over 10 regions with a price tag starting from USD 54k.
OIL:
WTI (N4) SETTLE USD 0.60 LOWER BY AT 79.23/BBL; BRENT (Q4) SETTLE 0.51 LOWER AT 83.43/BBL
Crude oil futures slid lower on Wednesday, as the US dollar picked-up, putting pressure on commodities. Traders are beginning to focus on Sunday’s OPEC+ virtual confab; a report today said that delegates were of the view that the rise in oil storage is supporting the case for the Group to keep policy steady, adding that the rise in OECD stocks was a concern, with OPEC’s supply and demand balances pointing to large inventory drawdowns in H2. Separately, China said it would reduce energy intake and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by about 2.5% and 3.9%, respectively, in 2024, and will reasonably control oil consumption, promote advanced biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel. Chinese officials will also “sternly” manage petrol consumption and promote sustainable jet fuel, and hasten the development of unconventional natural gas resources. In company news, ConocoPhillips (COP) will acquire Marathon Oil (MRO) in a USD 17bln all-stock deal, a move that aims to bolster its shale assets, and add 2bln bbls of resources to ConocoPhillips’ portfolio. Elsewhere, Exxon (XOM) gave some longer-term energy forecasts, where it sees oil demand at 100mln BPD in 2050, similar levels to what exists today. Afterhours, the API will release its gauge of energy inventory data for the week, ahead of the more widely-viewed DoE report due Thursday; analyst expect headline crude stocks to draw down by 2mln bbls, distillates to daw down by 200k, while gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 500k (note: an earlier poll had suggested that gasoline stocks would build by 1mln bbls, according to Reuters, during the week ending May 24th, and ahead of the peak summer driving season over the Memorial Day weekend – that earlier estimates was cited by some analysts as a sign of weak gasoline demand conditions, that may have been contributing to the downside in energy). Oil report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE down: $79.01 -1% ($80.60 – $79.01) LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.364 UNCH
US 6-MO 5.383 -0.002
US 1-YR 5.224 -0.001
US 5-YR 4.634 +0.06
US 10-YR 4.616 +0.074
US 30-YR 4.736 +0.08
2YR/10YR -0.36
CRYPTO
– IShares Bitcoin Trust (Blackrock) surpasses Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to become the largest spot BTC ETF by assets under management. $19.68B vs $19.65B, Fidelity is 3rd with $11.1B
– Trump says he’ll not allow a central bank digital currency and continue to allow full self-custody
– Ripple pledges $25m to pro crypto PAC which hit $102m
– Cathie Wood says Ether ETF’s approved because its an election year
– BTC falls as Treasury yields rise. Higher returns from more stable assets attract investors away from riskier ones
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down: -1.7% 67198 , -2.3% 3749
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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