MARKET REPORT
Review:
– NVIDIA +9%
– Strong US PMI sent rate cut expectations lower:
– US New Home Sales -4.7% Act 634k vs Exp 680k
– Boeing down 8% on 2nd Qtr neg cash flow and no aircraft deliveries
– Mixed European PMIs: France/UK miss, Germany beat
– TSLA omits 2023 sales goal from latest impact report
– Gold (&SI) SMOKED, Equites/Crude/BTC down, Dollar up.
DOLLAR DX up: 104.98 +0.14% (104.54 – 105.04) HIGHS
– AUD down: 66.06 -0.2% (66.53 – 65.99) LOWS
– EUR up: 92.46 +0.1% (92.05 – 92.53) HIGHS
– GBP down: 126.94 -0.17% (127.46 – 126.86) Off LOWS
– JPY up: 156.95 +0.15% (156.53 – 157.15) Off HIGHS
GOLD SMOKED: $2329 -2.65% ($2375 – $2329) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND down/down/down: 39137 -1.62%, 5286 -0.78%, 18684 -0.55%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/UNCH: -2.64% 67657 , UNCH 3755 UNCH
CRUDE down: $76.88 -0.9% ($78.64 – $76.43) LOWS
Upcoming:
– Japanese CPI
– UK Retail Sales
– US Durable Goods
Speakers:
– ECB: Schnabel, de Cos
– Fed’s Waller
EARNINGS:
MAJORS:
DX:
The bid began after hotter-than-expected US Flash PMIs, which was led by the Services sector, and extended once European players left for the day.
Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 from 50.0, while the Services PMI surged to 54.8 from 51.3, taking it to the highest level in 12 months. Overall, this lifted the composite to 54.4 from 51.1. For the record, Initial Jobless Claims fell by more than the lowest estimate, albeit only to 215k from 223k and doing little to change the dial. New Home Sales in April fell 4.7% to 634k, beneath the prior, revised lower, 665k and the expected 693k.
Looking ahead, highlights on Friday include Durable Goods (Apr), Fed’s Waller (voter), and UoM Final (May).
DOLLAR DX up: 104.98 +0.14% (104.54 – 105.04) HIGHS
No call
EUR:
The EUR was initially hit by disappointing French PMI metrics before better results for Germany and (to a degree) EZ undid some of the damage.
The cross hit a high of 1.0860, just falling short of Wednesday’s peak at 1.0863. EZ Q1 wage metrics rose from the prior but are expected to decline throughout the year; ECB pricing was little changed.
EUR up: 92.46 +0.1% (92.05 – 92.53) HIGHS
No call
AUD:
Nothing of note to report.
AUD down: 66.06 -0.2% (66.53 – 65.99) LOWS
GBP
UK Services and Composite PMI metrics missed expectations, although Manufacturing beat, but it is worth noting Services inflation and wage data are more pivotal for the UK rate outlook.
Cable went as high as 1.2746 but stopped shy of Wednesday’s 1.2761 peak, but then hit a later low of 1.2686 in the wake of Dollar strength.
GBP down: 126.94 -0.17% (127.46 – 126.86) Off LOWS
YEN:
Intervention data is due to be published at the end of the month.
Ahead, Japanese inflation metrics will be watched with headline measures expected to cool from prior. Such an outcome could reduce pressure on the BoJ to hike but also prompt further JPY weakness.
JPY up: 156.95 +0.15% (156.53 – 157.15) Off HIGHS
No call
GOLD/SILVER
Strong PMI gave pushed down market expectations of rate cuts and a market long Gold on spec got smoked. Silver moreso.
Gold is off MORE THAN $100 from its high of 2450 hit ONLY MONDAY.
GOLD SMOKED: $2329 -2.65% ($2375 – $2329) LOWS
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.74% 5,267
– NDX -0.44% 18,623
– DJIA -1.53% 39,869
– RUT -1.60% 2,048
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.03% 18,686.63
– FTSE: -0.37% 8,339.23
– CAC: +0.13% 8,102.33
– ES50: +0.23% 5,036.55
– IBEX 35: -0.16% 11,311.1
SECTORS (W to S): Real Estate -2.16%, Utilities -1.7%, Consumer Discretionary -1.52%, Financials -1.51%, Industrials -1.22%, Consumer Staples -1.2%, Communication Services -1.15%, Health -1.08%, Energy -1.02%, Materials -0.88%, Technology +0.56%.
STOCKS
– Nvidia +9%: EPS and revenue beat w/ strong data centre revenue. Announced a 10-for-1 stock split, raised cash dividend 150%, and impressive commentary surrounding the Hopper-Blackwell transition.
– Morgan Stanley -1.8%: Gorman will step down as chairman on Dec 31st, according to Bloomberg
OIL:
WTI is now at Prices not seen since late Feb
CRUDE down: $76.88 -0.9% ($78.64 – $76.43) LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.353 UNCH
US 6-MO 5.392 +0.01
US 1-YR 5.205 +0.04
US 5-YR 4.532 +0.059
US 10-YR 4.479 +0.045
US 30-YR 4.583 +0.033
2YR/10YR -0.46
CRYPTO
Different day same story. BTC hit 70k overnight then puked with ETH staying strong on EFT rumours
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/UNCH: -2.64% 67657 , UNCH 3755 UNCH
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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