MARKET REPORT
Review:
– ETH surge liquidates shorts in massive losses:
– Biden Drains Entire Northeast Gasoline Reserve In Bid To Lower Gas Prices
– Fed’s Waller said further increases in the policy rate are unnecessary, but interest rate cuts are probably several months away
– Aluminum 2yr High, US Natgas 5mth High, Copper retests record high
– CAD inflation falls to 3yr low 2.7% Apr vs 2.9% Mar. TSX All-time High
– Likelihood of a September cut now at 61% and November at 73%, below 64% and 77% respectively in the beginning of the week
– Saudi Arabia orders 100 new Airbus Jets
– Trump media post 1st Qtr $300m loss, stock -10%
– Klaus Schwab steps down as Chairman of World Economic Forum
– BoE’s Bailey expects quite a drop in April inflation data
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.52 UNCH (104.64 – 104.36) MID
– AUD UNCH: 66.65 UNCH (66.79 – 66.49) MID
– EUR UNCH: 92.09 UNCH (92.18 – 91.94) Off HIGHS
– GBP UNCH: 127.11 UNCH (126.93 – 127.26) MID
– JPY UNCH: 156.19 UNCH (155.87 – 156.52) HIGHS
GOLD down: $2427 -0.5% ($2436 – $2413) MID
DOW/ES/ND up smalls: 39996 +0.13%, 5344 +0.24%, 18804 +0.2%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: UNCH% 69700, +7% 3750
CRUDE down: $79.06 -1% ($79.49 – $78.09) MID
Upcoming:
– FOMC Minutes
– Nvidia reports
– Japanese Trade
– UK CPI/PPI
Speakers:
– Fed’s Bostic, Mester, Collins, Goolsbee
– ECB’s Lagarde
– BoE’s Breeden
EARNINGS:
– SSE, Marks & Spencer, Nvidia, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys, Target.
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar was flat in a quiet day, as participants await the pivotal risk events on Wednesday (NVDA earnings, FOMC Minutes), with Fed’s Waller (voter) comments arguably the highlight.
On this, he repeated his view from March that he needs to see several more months of good inflation data before being comfortable to support an easing in policy, which is noteworthy given the recent CPI report. In addition, the influential Waller said inflation is not accelerating, and also wants to see several more inflation reports, and unlike some of his colleagues, he is not flagging the potential for hikes if required. Some analysts said that his views may be more reflective of what we may see in the aforementioned FOMC mins on Wednesday.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.52 UNCH (104.64 – 104.36) MID
No call
EUR:
EUR saw a slew of central bank speakers, with President Lagarde the highlight, but she did not add much new.
EUR UNCH: 92.09 UNCH (92.18 – 91.94) Off HIGHS
No call
AUD:
RBA Minutes overnight from the May 6th-7th meeting stated they considered whether to raise rates but judged the case for steady policy was the stronger one and board agreed it was difficult to either rule in or rule out future changes in the Cash Rate
AUD UNCH: 66.65 UNCH (66.79 – 66.49) MID
GBP
Cable was within narrow parameters (1.2687-1.2726) as traders await UK inflation metrics on Wednesday, which could sway pricing for the June meeting, with a cut currently priced at ~51%. For the Pound, BoE Governor Bailey said he expects quite a drop in April inflation data and thinks next move on rates will be a cut.
GBP UNCH: 127.11 UNCH (126.93 – 127.26) MID
YEN:
Nothing of Note. Jap Trade data today.
JPY UNCH: 156.19 UNCH (155.87 – 156.52) HIGHS
No call
GOLD/SILVER
Silver at its strongest relative to the yellow metal since Dec 2022
GOLD down: $2427 -0.5% ($2436 – $2413) MID
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.25% 5,321
– NDX +0.21% 18,713
– DJIA +0.17% 39,873
– RUT -0.20% 2,098
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.23% 18,726.36
– FTSE: -0.09% 8,416.45
– CAC: -0.67% 8,141.46
– ES50: -0.56% 5,045.85
– IBEX 35: -0.04% at 11,334.90
SECTORS (S to W): Utilities +0.97%, Consumer Staples +0.6%, Financials +0.57%, Consumer Discretionary +0.49%, Technology +0.31%, Health +0.18%, Communication Services +0.05%, Materials -0.01%, Real Estate -0.05%, Industrials -0.33%, Energy -0.51%.
STOCKS
– Amazon -0.2%, Nvidia +0.6%: AMZN halted orders of NVDA ‘superchip’ to await updated model, according to the FT. NVDA’s earnings are to be released after close on Wednesday.
– GE Aerospace +1.1%: Announced it will hire 900 engineers this year.
– Intel -1.1%: In collaboration with Microsoft (MSFT) to enable several PHI-3 models across its data centre platforms and its AI PCs and edge solutions
OIL:
WTI (N4) SETTLED USD 0.54 LOWER AT USD 79.26/; BRENT (N4) SETTLED USD 0.83 LOWER AT USD 82.88
The crude complex was lower on Tuesday, with newsflow light, amid little geopolitical escalation. On the latter, the Middle East highlight was arguably in the EZ morning, where Times of Israel citing WaPo said Israel has decided to shelve plans for a major offensive in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah and will act in a more limited manner in the city, after discussions with the US on the matter. Nonetheless, oil-specific catalysts were light on Tuesday as WTI and Brent hit lows of 77.65 and 82.04, respectively, as US players entered for the day before paring some of the losses to settle well off lows. Elsewhere, the Biden admin will release 1mln bbls of gasoline from reserves held in the Northeast to reduce prices at the pump ahead of the July 4th holiday. Looking ahead, traders await private inventory data after-hours (expectations below), ahead of the main macro risk events such as Nvidia earnings and FOMC Minutes. US Energy Inventory Data Expectations (bbls): Crude (exp. -2.5mln), Gasoline (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate (exp. -0.4mln). Oil report by newssquark.
CRUDE down: $79.06 -1% ($79.49 – $78.09) MID
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.359 -0.001
US 6-MO 5.374 UNCH
US 1-YR 5.144 -0.003
US 5-YR 4.432 -0.025
US 10-YR 4.412 -0.025
US 30-YR 4.549 -0.024
2YR/10YR -0.42
CRYPTO
BTC Slipped back to unchanged after testing highs overnight
ETH is now at its strongest relative to BTC since mid-March
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: UNCH% 69700, +7% 3750
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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