MARKET REPORT

Review:

– ETH SOARS of ETF SEC possible authorization

– “I’m cautiously pessimistic. We have the most complicated geopolitical situation that most of us have seen since World War II, if you study history. We don’t really know the full effect of QT. I find it mysterious that, somehow, it had this beneficial effect, but it’s not going to have a negative effect when it goes away. I personally think inflation is a little bigger than people think and that rates may surprise people.”
Jamie Dimon

– ETH (& BTC) SURGE, Silver and Gold ‘surge’, early stock gains fade, Canadian Holiday

– AAPL slashes iPhone prices in China
– NVDA PT raised by Baird, Barclays, and Stifel

– Lots of Fed speak, incl. Jefferson noting it’s too early to say April CPI is the start of a new trend, but is a good sign.

DOLLAR DX up: 104.495                +0.16% (104.30 – 104.53) Off HIGHS
– AUD down: 66.68                         -0.68% (67.09 – 66.64) LOWS
– EUR UNCH: 92.07                         UNCH (91.85 – 92.10) Off HIGHS
– GBP UNCH: 127.10                       UNCH (126.90 – 127.24) MID
– JPY up: 156.28                               +0.43% (155.50 – 156.28) HIGHS

GOLD up: $2429                              +0.5% ($2454 – $2413) MID
DOW/ES/ND down/unch/up:       39944 -0.5%, 5330 UNCH, 18743 +0.6%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP UP AND AWAY:      +5% 69605, +12% 3442
CRUDE down: $79.71                     -0.43% ($80.58 – $79.16) Mid lows

Upcoming:

– German Produce Prices
– Canadian CPI

– US Philly Fed Non-manuf Bus Outlook Survey

– RBA Minutes
– ECB Governing Council Retreat

Speakers:

– Fed: Bostic, Barkin, Waller, Williams, Barr

– BoE’s Bailey

EARNINGS:

MAJORS:

DX:
In a day with light catalyst driven newsflow as participants await pivotal risk events (FOMC Minutes, Nvidia earnings). Whilst headline newsflow was thin, there was a slew of Fedspeak (Mester, Daly, Jefferson, Barr, Bostic), albeit little new was said, with plenty more scheduled on Tuesday.

DOLLAR DX up: 104.495                +0.16% (104.30 – 104.53) Off HIGHS

No call

EUR:
ECB’s Kazaks said the rate-cutting process must be cautious and gradual, they will look at the data again after June’s meeting, and the meeting is quite likely to be the start of ECB rate cuts.

EUR UNCH: 92.07                            UNCH (91.85 – 92.10) Off HIGHS

No call

AUD:
No news

AUD down: 66.68                            -0.68% (67.09 – 66.64) LOWS

GBP
Desks noting the Pound bulls were paying no heed to higher UST yields or the underlying dovish tone by the BoE, put in after the recent dovish hold by the MPC. Looking ahead, a further move lower in UK inflation on Wednesday may increase betting on a June rate cut as well as a second-rate reduction in August. Moreover, a resurgence in dovish expectations would undermine the current bullish GBP tone and put April lows at 1.2299 in sharper focus.

GBP UNCH: 127.10                         UNCH (126.90 – 127.24) MID

YEN:
Wider US-Japan rate differential is likely to keep the cross bid, barring any Yen intervention talk.

JPY up: 156.28                                 +0.43% (155.50 – 156.28) HIGHS

No call

GOLD/SILVER
Nothing ‘specific’. The usual suspects:
– Hopes of a Fed cut
– Purchases by Chinese Central Bank
– Geopolitical risks
– Death Iran President (Yay!)

GOLD up: $2429                              +0.5% ($2454 – $2413) MID

EQUITIES:

US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.09% 5,308
– NDX +0.69% 18,674
– DJIA -0.50% 39,807
– RUT +0.32% 2,102

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.36% 18,773.75
– FTSE: +0.04% 8,423.44
– CAC: +0.35% 8,195.97
– ES50: +0.21% 5,074.85
– IBEX 35: +0.08% 11,336.69

SECTORS (S to W): Technology +1.32%, Communication Services +0.34%, Industrials +0.17%, Materials +0.15%, Utilities -0.21%, Health -0.3%, Energy -0.64%, Real Estate -0.68%, Consumer Staples -0.68%, Consumer Discretionary -0.72%, Financials -1.21%.

STOCKS
JPMorgan -4.5%: Pared all pre-market gains as ahead of its investor day, it lifted FY NII guidance; CEO Dimon said they’re not going to engage in buybacks at these prices and noted the succession timetable is not five years anymore, indicating it could be less.
Nvidia +2.5%: Ahead of earnings on Wednesday, Baird, Barclays, and Stifel raised PT of the Co.

OIL:
WTI (N4) SETTLED USD 0.26 LOWER AT 79.80/BBL; BRENT (N4) SETTLED USD 0.27 LOWER AT USD 83.71/BBL

The crude complex was choppy, albeit slightly lower at settlement, in a day of light newsflow to start the week amid no geopolitical escalation. Despite this, according to Sky News Arabia, Israeli National Defence Minister proposed Israel invade Lebanon to completely destroy Hezbollah. In addition, focus was on Iran the death of the Iranian president and foreign minister following their helicopter crash on Sunday, although this was quickly labelled as a weather-related accident whilst Israel also denied any involvement. In other news, Interfax reports that Russian President Putin said Russian oil output has declined year to date to 195.7mln tonnes, and that is due to OPEC+ deal; elsewhere, the Volgograd oil refinery (300k BPD) last week restarted its CDU-1 unit which was damaged by a drone. Oil report by newssquark.

CRUDE down: $79.71                     -0.43% ($80.58 – $79.16) Mid lows

BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.363 UNCH
US 6-MO 5.379 +0.005
US 1-YR 5.155 +0.021
US 5-YR 4.47 +0.029
US 10-YR 4.447 +0.027
US 30-YR 4.584 +0.023

2YR/10YR -0.41

CRYPTO

– Eth JUMPS on ETF approval speculation (+12%) (BTC +5.5%)

– Solana +7%

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP UP AND AWAY:       +5% 69605, +12% 3442

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm