MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Gold down, Dollar/Crude up, Crypto/Equities down smalls.
– US Building Permits fall to 10 month Low
– US Housing starts rise less than Exp
– US Initial Jobless fall less then Exp
– US Philly Factory Activity slows more than Exp
– US Import & Export prices rise more than Exp
– US Industrial Output less than Exp
– US Manufacturing Output Less than Exp
– Fed’s Williams said April CPI was positive, policy in a good place; Mester notes inflation risks have moved up; Barkin thinks it will take more time for inflation to come down
– Dow hits 40,000 for the first time
– Gamestop, AMC dive further
– Treasury Yields at 1 month low
– Euro Indexes ease from multi-decade highs
– Aussie unemployment rate ticks up
– Japan GDP disappoints
– Putin meeting Xi in China
– Israel says additional forces will take place in Rafah op
– Copper continues squeeze
DOLLAR DX up: 104.38 +0.17% (104.07 – 104.50) Off HIGHS
– AUD down: 66.80 -0.2% (69.98 – 66.55) MID
– EUR up: 92.01 +0.17% (91.80 – 92.09) Off HIGHS
– GBP UNCH: 126.70 UNCH% (126.95 – 126.45) MID
– JPY up: 155.40 +0.37% (153.80 – 155.52) Off HIGHS
GOLD down: $2382 -0.5% ($2398 – $2376) MID
DOW/ES/ND down: 39994 -0.1%, 5317 -0.3%, 18639 -0.25%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: -1.2% 65120, -2.7% 2939
CRUDE up: $79.29 +0.85% ($78.20 – $79.82) Off HIGHS
Upcoming:
– Chinese Retail Sales
– EZ CPI (F)
Speakers:
– ECB’s de Guindos
– BoE’s Mann
– Fed’s Waller & Daly
EARNINGS:
Engie, Scor
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar Index was firmer on Thursday and hit a high of 104.620, attempting to recoup some of its post-CPI and retail sales losses where it saw a low of 104.070. There was a slew of data, nothing changed the dial too much.
On the Fed footing, Goolsbee (non-voter), Williams (voter), Barkin (voter), and Mester (voter) were on the wires, with Williams noting April CPI was a “positive development”, optimistic inflation will continue to retreat, still lacks confidence inflation moving sustainably to 2%, and doesn’t see need for a “near term” rate cut or hike.
The calendar on Friday is very quiet as participants await the next catalyst, arguably FOMC Minutes, Nvidia earnings, and Core PCE
DOLLAR DX up: 104.38 +0.17% (104.07 – 104.50) Off HIGHS
No call
EUR:
ECB speakers provided little movement, however, Centeno, who tends to sit at the dovish end of the spectrum, stated a preference for gradual rate cuts.
EUR up: 92.01 +0.17% (91.80 – 92.09) Off HIGHS
No call
AUD:
Australian unemployment unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.1% (exp. 3.9%, prev. 3.8%) while they added 38.5k jobs to the economy (exp. 23.7k, prev. -6.6k)
AUD down: 66.80 -0.2% (69.98 – 66.55) MID
GBP
If Cable manages to resume its ascent higher and breach 1.27, the April high sits just above at 1.2709. Comments from BoE’s Greene highlighted that data released ahead of the June meeting will give a clearer indication of how far along the “last mile” the MPC has come.
GBP UNCH: 126.70 UNCH% (126.95 – 126.45) MID
YEN:
Japanese Q1 GDP declined marginally more than forecasted, but Annualised was much greater than anticipated. The Japanese weakness came despite the Yen being one of the main beneficiaries of Wednesday’s post-data Buck weakness with the move higher in yields.
JPY up: 155.40 +0.37% (153.80 – 155.52) Off HIGHS
No call
GOLD/SILVER
Gold hovered close to its highest level in nearly four weeks at $2,380 per ounce, as signs of easing price pressures lifted the expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.
According to the latest release, US monthly inflation slowed to 0.3%, slightly below the forecasts, while the annual headline rate decelerated to 3.4% and core rate to 3.6%. Furthermore, stalling retail sales and previously soft labour data boded well for less restrictive Fed stance. Investors are now betting on more than a 70% chance of a Fed rate reduction in September. Lower interest rates boost the appeal for non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee expressed his optimism about waning inflation.
Interest-rate swaps showed traders have priced in just two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Probabilities at the moment have the first cut at 86.5% in September.
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX: -0.21% 5,297
– NDX: -0.21% 18,557
– DJIA: -0.10% 39,869
– RUT: -0.63% at 2,096
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.76% 18,725.71
– FTSE: -0.08% 8,438.65
– CAC: -0.63% 8,188.49
– ES50: -0.54% 5,073.55
– IBEX: -0.56% 11,299.30
SECTORS (S to W): Consumer Staples +1.48%, Communication Services -0.02%, Financials -0.02%, Health -0.10%, Real Estate -0.15%, Technology -0.34%, Utilities -0.36%, Energy -0.42%, Industrials -0.65%, Materials -0.73%, Consumer Discretionary -0.75%
STOCKS
– Walmart +7%: EPS, revenue, and comparable sales all beat, with FY adj. EPS at high end or slightly above original guidance.
– Chubb +4.5%: In its latest 13-F Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) reported a stake in the Co., around 6.4% of its market cap.
– Under Armour -1.5%: FY profit outlook was way short of expected and revenue is seen to be down at a low double digit percentage rate, amid downbeat commentary. Also, sees a surprise Q1 loss per share.
Ending with S&P500’s daily RSI approach ‘overbought’ levels.
OIL:
WTI (N4) SETTLED USD 0.58 HIGHER AT 78.74/BBL; BRENT (N4) SETTLED USD 0.52 HIGHER AT 83.27/BBL
The crude complex was firmer on Thursday, albeit settling off highs, with oil picking up as US participants arrived after Middle Eastern headlines. WTI (N4) and Brent (N4) hit highs of USD 79.30/bbl and 83.78/bbl, respectively, after the US data against earlier troughs of 77.75/bbl and 82.31/bbl. Regarding the day, oil ground to session highs as US participants entered the fray, with some citing comments from Israeli Defence Minister who noted additional forces will take place in the Rafah ground operation. Prior to this, in the EZ morning action was much more contained and largely dictated by the USD. Elsewhere, CPC increased oil exports 4% Y/Y to 1.44mln/BPD across January-April, while the wildfire in Canada remains away from the oil sands city of Fort McMurray, Alberta, for now. Friday’s docket is sparse with Baker Hughes rig count the highlight, absent of any geopolitical updates. Oil report by newssquark.
CRUDE up: $79.29 +0.85% ($78.20 – $79.82) Off HIGHS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.345 -0.008
US 6-MO 5.366 +0.005
US 1-YR 5.13 +0.03
US 5-YR 4.401 +0.045
US 10-YR 4.377 +0.021
US 30-YR 4.516 UNCH
2YR/10YR -0.42
CRYPTO
– Hedge Funds Millenium MGmt, Point72 (Cohen) and Elliot Investment Mgmt invested in BTC ETF’s following Wed deadline to file 13F reports with the SEC.
– House of Reps joined Senate to erase Crypto accounting system, Biden says will veto.
– IBKR unveils crypto trading for UK clients.
– Bybit exchange hit with French Ban
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: -1.2% 65120, -2.7% 2939
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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