MARKET REPORT

Review:

– Gamestop/AMC up 75%

– Worst day for hedge funds since Dec 23

– BTC had a day

–  NY Fed SCE sees 1yr & 5yr inflation expectations inch higher

– ARM to make AI chips

DOLLAR DX UNCH: 105.12            UNCH (105.22 – 104.93) MID
– AUD UNCH: 66.06                         UNCH (65.87 – 66.29) MID
– EUR down: 92.67                          -0.17% (92.85 – 92.51) MID
– GBP up: 125.19                             +0.25% (125.19 – 125.68) Off HIGHS
– JPY up: 156.19                               +0.3 (155.69 – 156.24) HIGHS

GOLD down: $2343                                       -1.3% ($2363 – $2339) Off LOWS
DOW/ES/ND UNCH:                                      39548 -0.25%, 5243 UNCH, 18290 +0.2%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up:                                   +3% 63100, UNCH 2950
CRUDE up: $79.20                                          +1.2% ($77.98 – $79.46) HIGHS

Upcoming:

Japanese Corporate Goods Prices
German & Spanish CPI (F)
UK Employment Data
German ZEW

US PP

Speakers:

BoE’s Pill
ECB’s Schnabel
Fed Chair Powell, Cook

EARNINGS:

Flutter, Greggs, Vodafone, Porsche SE, Hannover Re, Bayer, ACS, Grifols, Home Depot.

MAJORS:

DX:
The Dollar was flat to start the week, and within very contained parameters (105.050-360) ahead of the next key risk events, which comes from Fed Chair Powell at a Netherlands banking event on Tuesday, and US PPI (Tues) and CPI (Wed). Nonetheless, some strength was observed after the April NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations saw the 1yr ahead and 5yr ahead tick higher to 3.3% (prev. 3.0%) and 2.8% (prev. 2.6%), respectively, in-fitting with the Michigan data on Friday for May, while the 3yr moved lower to 2.8% from 2.9%. Fed wise, Jefferson (voter) noted the economy has made a lot of progress and inflation has retreated, while the labour market has been resilient.

DOLLAR DX UNCH: 105.12            UNCH (105.22 – 104.93) MID

No call

AUD:
Australian NAB Business conditions were slightly weaker than expected, with Confidence in line while New Zealand 2yr inflation forecasts were softer than forecasted. In the week ahead, Australian Employment (Thurs) is the highlight.

AUD UNCH: 66.06                           UNCH (65.87 – 66.29) MID

No call

GBP
Pound was seemingly boosted by technicals, as Cable hit a peak of 1.2568, taking out its 200DMA of 1.2542 on the way, with the next level to the upside being the 7th May high at 1.2570. Ahead, traders await UK employment data on Tuesday in addition to BoE Chief Economist Pill.

GBP up: 125.19                 +0.25% (125.19 – 125.68) Off HIGHS

No call

EUR
There was little headline-driven newsflow for the Euro, but the cross hit a peak of 1.0806, also taking out its 200DMA. There was no tier 1 data either, with German ZEW and European inflation metrics tomorrow.

EUR down: 92.67                            -0.17% (92.85 – 92.51) MID

No call

YEN:
Cross breached 156.00 to the upside to a high of 156.28, after seeing lows of 155.57 overnight after the BoJ said it reduced its purchases of 5yr-10yr JGBs.

JPY up: 156.19                                 +0.3 (155.69 – 156.24) HIGHS

No call

EQUITIES:

US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.02% 5,221
– NDX +0.21% 18,198
– DJIA -0.21% 39,431
– RUT +0.11% 2,062

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.18% 18,738.47
– FTSE: -0.22% 8,414.99
– CAC: -0.12% 8,209.28
– S50: -0.14% 5078
– IBEX35: +0.42% 11,152.00

SECTORS (S to W): Technology +0.48%, Real Estate +0.29%, Utilities -0.01%, Materials -0.08%, Health -0.1%, Communication Services -0.18%, Consumer Discretionary -0.22%, Energy -0.23%, Consumer Staples -0.28%, Financials -0.41%, Industrials -0.45%

STOCKS
Gamestop +74%: “TheRoaringKitty” posted for the first time in roughly three years. The post, a picture on X of a video gamer leaning forward on their chair to indicate he’s taking the game seriously. Note, AMC Entertainment (+80%).
AI: OpenAI released the new flagship model called GPT-4o; it will be available for free because it is more efficient. There was no update on a Google (GOOGL) Search competitor as was suggested in reports last week, but OpenAI CEO Sam Altman did state on Friday no search announcement would be made soon.
Arm +7.5%: Will foray into the development of AI chips, and aims to build a prototype by spring 2025, with mass production scheduled to begin in Autumn 2025.
Squarespace +13%: Is to go private for USD 44.00/shr in cash with Permira. Note, SQSP closed Friday at USD 38.19/shr.

OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLED USD 0.86 HIGHER AT 79.12/BBL; BRENT (N4) SETTLED USD 0.57 HIGHER AT 83.36/BBL

The crude complex was firmer to start the week, albeit settling off highs, in a day with light oil-specific newsflow as participants await the next catalyst, such as US inflation data. On that footing, in the NY Fed SCE, both the 1yr and 5yr ticked higher, although the 3yr declined, while overnight, China CPI came in slightly firmer than forecasted. Additionally over the weekend, the Iraqi oil minister said they would not be agreeing to any future OPEC production cuts, however, they later backtracked and made clear that they are part of OPEC and compliance is necessary. Meanwhile, Middle East updates obviously remain in focus, albeit with little new on Monday, although the complex extended on gains seen in the morning after Al Jazeera reported that a US-British craft reportedly launched a raid on Hodeidah Airport in Yemen. As such, WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 79.49/bbl and 83.84/bbl, respectively, as Europe was leaving for the day before paring slightly, as previously mentioned. Oil report courtesy of newsquark

CRUDE up: $79.20                                          +1.2% ($77.98 – $79.46) HIGHS

BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.375 +0.005
US 6-MO 5.384 +0.002
US 1-YR 5.188 +0.005
US 5-YR 4.509 -0.009
US 10-YR 4.49 -0.014
US 30-YR 4.632 -0.014

2YR/10YR -0.38

CRYPTO

– BTC surges on back of Gamestop and interest in meme stocks/crypto

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH up:                                   +3% 63100, UNCH 2950

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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