Market Report.
Today’s DATA: – Dollar down vs Yen, AUD, smalls vs EUR & Pound, EQ down smalls across the Indexes, Crude pares early weakness, GC up ½ a % firming above the 2k handle, SI outperforms its bigger brother, BTC and ETH grind off 1.5 and 3% respectively, Treasuries up.
Soft New Home Sales data; Weak Dallas Fed Mfg. survey; Weak 2yr Auction; Strong 5yr auction; Saudi seek OPEC+ cuts (with resistance); Israel-Hamas extend truce; ECB’s Lagarde touts QT/PEPP discussion; Judge rules against META in FTC case; EU warns AMZN takeover of IRBT may restrict competition.
Upcoming: Today: Australian Retail Sales, US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index Events: Fed Discount Rate Minutes Speakers: BoE’s Ramsden & Haskel; RBA’s Bullock; Fed’s Goolsbee, Waller, Bowman, Barr; ECB’s Lane.
This week: US PCE, ISM; OPEC; EZ inflation. Minutes from; FOMC, ECB, RBA, PBoC. EQ: Dell, SalesForce and HP reporting.
MAJORS:
DX Yen was the leader dragging the index down (see Fridays Mkt report urging a sell) with the Yen gaining 0.5%, the AUD 0.35% followed by small gain by the Euro and Pound. Momentum is to the downside. FOMC minutes and to a lesser, Fed speak will be looked at for info regards IR movements (or not). Fed Speak has indicated elevated rise for extended period (with a rise not entirely discounted) and I believe the market is in a different position than the Fed. Mkt is looking at earlier cuts than what I believe the Fed is. Market drives the Dollar but the Fed drives IR. Look for Fed speak or minutes to indicate partial retrace back to 104 the figure. Otherwise with momentum downwards, that’s the continued play. Reminder all calls are based on info at hand and cannot factor in future data. AUD “65 the Handle appears to be (though early) settling in as firm support. I think a 64 handle is a thing of the past for the foreseeable. Momentum is switching to Neg Dollar, expect a test of 66 handle”
Mkt Report Fri.
Went straight to 66.15 from Fridays close of 65.78. back to 66.05. 65 cents now FIRM base. 64 handle gone. 68 is the longer term play. Keep in mind this call is made with INFORMATION AT HAND ie FOMC minutes, Fed speak Aus data etc may/likely confirm or deny.
EUR Touched 91.50 before back to 91.25 to close off smalls. Anything approaching 92 handle is a sell. Look for a test of 91 the figure and back and forth with stops breaking and a retest.
Pound Pound I was a buy the dips guy Fri but there weren’t any, we touched 126.50 before coming to 126.05 before closing at 126.30. it’s a buy the dips situation although it wouldn’t surprise to see the 125 handle so don’t randomly jump on. 125.50 to 127 near term.
YEN “Yen Feels Toppy to me. 149.65 area. Feels like further dollar weakness and Yen smashed back to 147 the figure. If you like a punt sell Yen for a gamble 149.50+ or be quick to go with it. 149.60+ is Gold. Doubt we’ll see again.”
Fri report
Standout trade on Friday. Hope some got on. In future Ill work out a way possibly to ‘rank’ my calls, ie my confidence in them. This was a ten, I hoped I expressed it at least as a strong 9.
Didn’t go quietly into the night though as a break of the 149 figure did see a retrace to 149.30.
If you do get stopped out on plays like this, and the downward trend reestablishes itself, jump back on, only your action will make your account money. Telling sob stories in the pub wont.
If it hits 148.90 then gets (clearly) short squeezed back over the figure, but the principle is correct (youre charts and overall dollar across board are indicating) then a move from 149.30 to minus 149.15 LIKELY indicates a further test of the 149 figure. SO if stopped out at 149.20+ You should have a reentry at 149.13 to see the figure (and beyond). Remember trading is a proactive game. Never trade for the sake of it, but trade to get it right.
)” Fri Mkt Report. Dollar did weaken, GC did firm above the psychological 2000 handle. If they cant sell it…. And further dollar weakness is (potentially, here’s looking at you Fed) on the cards so maybe the shiny stuff your wife keeps wanting you to buy, will have a break higher. SI outperformed as is want and will look at the $25 a handle figure. Whether this proves to be a ceiling, depends on its yellow big brother.
