MARKET REPORT

Review:

– Fed’s Bostic: ‘Wont be in position to cut rates until end of the year
– For Brief moments today May rate HIKES were more likely than CUTS!:

Just 38bps now priced in

– US Initial Jobless claims unchanged at 212K
– US Phily factory activity rises most in 2 years
– US Existing Home Sales Mar fall -4.3% to 4.19m Exp 4.2m (Prev +9.5% Feb)
– US 30yr Fixed Mort above 7%, highest since Nov

– VIX at 6 month HIGH

– Telsa down another 3%
– Netflix Earnings shortly
– Trump Media Shares close 26% Higher

– Dovish ECB Villeroy comments

– Cocoa +8%

– US & UK issue new sanctions on Iran in response to Israel attack

– Dollar/Gold up smalls, BTC up 3.5%, Equities mixed/Tech down, Crude UNCH

DOLLAR DX up: 105.96                  +0.2% (105.57 – 106.00) Highs
– AUD Down: 64.21                         -0.22% (64.55 – 64.18) Lows
– EUR Up: 93.93                               +0.22% (93.52 – 93.93) High
– GBP down small: 124.38             -0.13% (124.84 – 124.34) Lows
– JPY up: 154.62                               +0.20% (154.01 – 154.67) Off Highs

GOLD up: $2395                              +0.3% ($2407 – $2385) Mid
DOW/ES/ND up/down/down:      38072 +0.21%, 5049 -0.25%, 17535 -0.7%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH Up:                   +2285/+3.75% 663422, +58/+2% 3063
CRUDE UNCH: $82.75                    UNCH ($81.57 – $83.44) Mid to high

Upcoming:

JAP Inflation Rate

UK Retail Sales

Speakers:

BoE: Breedon, Rasnden

Fed: Goolsbee

MAJORS:

DX:
Slightly firmer on Thursday and hit highs of 106.17 in the US afternoon as risk sentiment soured, sending equity futures and Treasuries to lows. In terms of the day, Philly Fed surpassed expectations with hot prices paid, as it hit its highest reading since December 2023 and near, but below, its long run average. Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 212k. Fed’s Williams (voter) towed a slightly more hawkish line than usual, and while he reiterated that that policy is in a good place and doen’t feel the urgency to cut rates, he did note while rate hikes are not his baseline forecast, if the data called for higher rates, the Fed would hike, which the market took note of, with yields climbing higher. Looking to Friday, ahead of blackout, Goolsbee is the only scheduled speaker with no tier 1 data.

DOLLAR DX up: 105.96                  +0.2% (105.57 – 106.00) Highs

No call

AUD:
Employment surprisingly declined in 6.6k in March, against a forecasted 10k rise.

AUD Down: 64.21                           -0.22% (64.55 – 64.18) Lows

No call

GBP
UK Retail Sales tonight

GBP down small: 124.38               -0.13% (124.84 – 124.34) Lows

No call

EUR
Nothing of note to report

EUR Up: 93.93                                  +0.22% (93.52 – 93.93) High

No call

YEN:
BoJ board member Noguchi gave extensive remarks overnight although didnt say whether there will be another hike this year.
More recently, Governor Ueda said there is a chance weak Yen may affect trend inflation and if so, could lead to policy shift, while Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki noted FX levels reflect various factors and not just rate differentials. USD/JPY hit a high of 154.69, as attention as always will remain on any potential verbal intervention overnight.
Jap data out tonight.

JPY up: 154.62                                 +0.20% (154.01 – 154.67) Off Highs

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:
Why are Gold equities underperforming?
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF is only up 10% year-to-date and still well under highs hit earlier this decade.
Opportunity?

GOLD up: $2395                              +0.3% ($2407 – $2385) Mid

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.22% 5,011
– NDX -0.57% 17,394
– DJIA +0.06% 37,775
– RUT -0.26% at 1,942

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.45% 17,716.92
– FTSE: +0.37% 7,845.89
– CAC: +0.52% 7,976.40
– ES: +0.47% 4,907.35

SECTORS (W to S): Technology -0.89%, Consumer Discretionary -0.71%, Industrials -0.35%, Energy -0.22%, Health +0.02%, Real Estate +0.02%, Materials +0.03%, Financials +0.40%, Consumer Staples +0.41%, Utilities +0.61%, Communication Services +0.66%

STOCKS
Tesla -3.5%: Downgraded at Deutsche.
BlackRock, MSCI -1%: US House Committee is probing index funds that channelled billions of Dollars into blacklisted Chinese companies; probe is focused on BlackRock and MSCI, according to WSJ.
Nordstrom +4.5%: Family reportedly weighing taking the retailer private, according to WSJ.
Google +0.5%: CEO Pichai says plan to share more AI progress on earnings call (earnings date April 25th).

OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLED USD 0.05 LOWER AT 82.10/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 0.18 LOWER AT 87.11/BBL

Oil prices were choppy on Thursday amid signs of technical fatigue in the oil market juxtaposed against some fresh Iranian bellicose rhetoric. WTI and Brent (M4) futures hit session lows of USD 81.06/bbl and 86.09/bbl, respectively, at the NY handover, coming on the heels of reporting in the European morning claiming Israel’s Netanyahu is postponing counter strike on Iran till after Passover next week, claiming he’s promised a more limited retaliation in return for freedom to strike Rafah hard. However, losses were pared after the Senior Iranian Guards Commander Haghtalab said Tehran could review its nuclear doctrine, saying, “Our hands are on the trigger, Israel’s nuclear facilities have been identified”, saying Iran is ready to launch “powerful missiles to destroy designated targets in Israel… If Israel dares to hit our nuclear sites, we will surely hit back”. The recovery was gradual and contracts managed to hit peaks of USD 82.84/bbl and 87.80/bbl, respectively, later in the afternoon, although contracts began paring again into settlement.

CRUDE UNCH: $82.75                    UNCH ($81.57 – $83.44) Mid to high


BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5. 381 +0.002
US 6-MO 5.376 +0.01
US 1-YR 5.19 +0.027
US 5-YR 4.677 +0.06
US 10-YR 4.633 +0.048
US 30-YR 4.729 +0.03

2YR/10YR -0.36

CRYPTO
– JP Morgan and Deutsche Bk see Halving ‘priced-in’
–  Data from the blockchain analytics platform Glassnode shows that after Bitcoin surged to its all-time high of more than $73,000, long-term investors seized the opportunity to capitalize on the record prices and realize profits. The scale of profit-taking was the largest since 2021.
– Leveraged positions reached extremely high levels during Bitcoin’s ascent to its all-time high

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH Up:                    +2285/+3.75% 663422, +58/+2% 3063No Call

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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