MARKET REPORT

Review:

Danish Stock Exchange, left.

– Crude SMOKED, inventories (EIA) larger than expected

– Mortgage rates at 4 month highs

– Poor ASML earnings

– UAL earnings impress, UAL jumps

– Hotter-than-expected UK CPI, shock

– Biden calls for higher tariffs on Chinese steel, wheres the walk, duck?

– Crude DOWN, Equities down, Treasuries up, Dollar down smalls.

DOLLAR DX down:                          -0.27% (106.22 – 105.79) Lows
– AUD up: 64.36                               +0.56% (64.04 – 64.46) Highs
– EUR down: 93.67                          -0.5% (94.25 – 93.63) Lows
– GBP up: 124.54                             +0.23% (124.18 – 124.80) MID
– JPY down: 154.37                         -0.18% (154.69 – 154.16) Off Lows

GOLD down: $2387                        -0.85% (2411 – 2380) Off Lows
DOW/ES/ND down:                        37974 -72/-0.19%, 5061 -31/-0.6%, 17663 -218/-1.22%
CRYPTO down: BTC/ETH:              BTC -1990/-3.16% 60900, ETH -87/-2.86 2976
CRUDE DOWN: $82.81                   -$2.55/-3% Crude

Upcoming:

Australian Employment

US IJC, Philly Fed

Speakers:

BoJ Noguchi
ECB: De Guindos, Schnabel
Fed: Williams, Bowman, Bostic

Earnings: EssilorLuxottica, L’Oreal, Danone, EasyJet, Rentokil, Segro, Nokia, TSMC, Netflix, Elevance Health, Blackstone.

MAJORS:

DX:
Ultimately lower amid a lack of tier 1 data and Fed speak with the move seemingly driven by the move lower in US rates and perhaps some reversal after the sharp upside seen recently. Attention after hours tonight will lie on Fed’s Mester and Fed’s Bowman, while Williams and Bowman are set to speak again on Thursday, as well as Bostic (twice) with data focusing on jobless claims and existing home sales, as well as the Philly Fed business index.

DOLLAR DX down:                          -0.27% (106.22 – 105.79) Lows

No call.

AUD:
Antipodes were bid despite the equity slump with upside supported by the weaker buck with the Aussie also underpinned by rising iron ore prices

AUD up: 64.36                  +0.56% (64.04 – 64.46) Highs

No call.

GBP
The Pound was bid vs. the Dollar but softer vs. the Euro. UK inflation data was hotter than expected and also above the BoE forecasts. BoE’s Greene noted cutting inflation to target is a bumpy ride but suggested data is encouraging, noting BoE is closer to target than a few months ago.

GBP up: 124.54                 +0.23% (124.18 – 124.80) MID

No call

EUR
The Euro was bid thanks to the softer Dollar, paring somewhat from the recent lows with EUR/USD rising back above 1.0650. Note, with the recent Euro weakness – due to diverging Fed/ECB policy expectations – ING highlights that a falling Euro is not the ECBs biggest headache. The desk states that there are fears of reflation after the hot US inflation report, noting US headline inflation has simply led its eurozone counterpart by half a year since the pandemic. ING asks, how likely is parity? noting further policy divergence can be enough, but in their view, “we may well need to see the 2-year EUR/USD swap rate widening to more than the -175bp bottom, as the euro is no longer facing the kind of fundamental pressure on its longer-term fair value caused by the energy crisis”

EUR down: 93.67                            -0.5% (94.25 – 93.63) Lows

No call

YEN:
Yen saw gains vs. the Buck but USD/JPY still sits above 154.00 although the move lower in US yields was supportive of the currency. There was a notable bit of strength in quick succession with no headline driver but it only moved 25bps, nowhere near the whole point move seen on Tuesday. However, Citi highlighted that yesterday’s move was unlikely intervention, as prior instances saw much larger traded volumes and a larger move in spot. Note, heading into the US market close, Japanese officials noted Japan is always communicating with the US and others on Japan’s stance on FX and financial markets, but did not comment on how recent USD/JPY moves are assessed, nor on specific measures that could be taken.

JPY down: 154.37                            -0.18% (154.69 – 154.16) Off Lows

No call

GOLD & SILVER:

Nothing of note to report. 2400 Holding.

GOLD down: $2387                        -0.85% (2411 – 2380) Off Lows

$2400 HOLDS. But Ive been way wrong for $100 now, soooo….

OIL
:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 2.67 LOWER AT 82.69/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 2.73 LOWER AT 87.29/BBL

The crude complex was lower, and settled at troughs, as a larger-than-expected EIA crude build coupled with markets awaiting an Israeli response weighed on oil. On the latter, and contrary to usual, updates have been sparse with the latest news stating Israel considered striking Iran on Monday but decided to wait. As such, focus will continue to remain on any material updates but details on the response remain light at the minute. On the EIA data, Crude stocks built 2.735mln (exp. 1.8mln), while in-fitting with the private inventory metrics, Distillate and Gasoline saw a greater-than-forecasted draw. Crude production was unchanged at 13.1mln and refining utilisation fell 0.2% (exp. 0.6%, prev. -0.3%). Oil report courtesy of newsquark.

CRUDE DOWN: $82.81                   -$2.55/-3% Crude

STOCKS
US
– SPX -0.58% 5,022
– NDX -1.24% 17,493
– DJIA -0.12% 37,753
– RUT -0.99% 1,947

EURO
–  DAX: +0.12% 17,737.64
– FTSE: +0.35% 7,798.57
– CAC: +0.62% 7,958.00
– ES50: -0.05% 4,899.45

SECTORS (W to S): Technology -1.71%, Real Estate -0.80%, Consumer Discretionary -0.57%, Industrials -0.57%, Energy -0.34%, Health -0.18%, Communication Services -0.12%, Financials +0.20%, Materials +0.21%, Consumer Staples +0.46%, Utilities +2.08%.

EARNINGS:
United Airlines  +17%: Posted a much shallower loss per share than expected and beat on revenue, while for the FY adj. EPS was light but revenue midpoint topped forecasts.
US Bancorp  -3.5%: Total avg. deposits, loans, NII, and NIM were light, although do note top and bottom line marginally beat

INDIVIDUAL:
Microsoft  -0.7%: To reportedly avoid a formal EU probe over USD 13bln OpenAI deal, according to Bloomberg.
Snap  +5%: US House Speaker Johnson says TikTok divest-or-ban bill is moving fast through Congress.

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.381 +0.001
US 6-MO 5.366 -0.006
US 1-YR 5.163 -0.009
US 5-YR 4.619 -0.063
US 10-YR 4.589 -0.068
US 30-YR 4.703 -0.054

2YR/10YR -0.34

CRYPTO

– HALVING IN 3 DAYS!

– 60K CRITICAL HOLD

CRYPTO down: BTC/ETH:              BTC -1990/-3.16% 60900, ETH -87/-2.86 2976

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

Centre, Danish Stock Exchange

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