MARKET REPORT
Review:
– NFP Headline beats (275k vs Epc 200K) but Jan and Dec revised sharply lower and Rate ticks up to 2yr high (to 3.9% from 3.7%) plus soft wage figures
– Real Estate and communication services were the best sectors, consumer staples the laggard
– 57% chance priced in of a 25bp cut in June (Fed Funds)
– Dollar pukes on numbers but rebounds over session
– State of the Union fallout. Touted as most partisan speech ever.
– NVIDIA retraces 5%
– CAD employment: Rate ticked up to 5.8% vs Prev 5.7% but 42k added vs Exp 20K
– Further Hawkish BoJ reports
– ECB policymakers reportedly overwhelmingly favor June for the first rate cut
– BTC touches 70k before puking to 66.5 before back above 69 handle
– ETH touches 4k before 3825 back to 3950
– Dollar rebounds to close flat, Crypto off highs after making records and vol session, Gold Mid range after touching 2200, Crude down, Treasuries steepen
– Tech fades in afternoon
PRCIES 3.30PM EST
DOLLAR DX: UNCH: 102.68 UNCH (102.85 – 102.32) Off highs
– AUD UNCH: 66.22 UNCH (66.67 – 66.17) Lows
– EUR UNCH: 91.39 UNCH (91.50 – 91.08) Off highs
– GBP Up: 128.53 +0.35 % (128.01 – 128.88) Mid rgr
– JPY Down: 147.06 -0.55 % (148.02 – 146.48) Off lows
GOLD Up: $2184 +0.9% ($2164 – $2202) Mid rgr
DOW/ES/ND: 38850 UNCH, 5140 -0.5 %, 18085 -1.3 %
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +1122/+1.65% 69050, +28/+0.7% 3938 Highs
CRUDE Down: $77.94 -$1/-1.5% ($79.97 – $77.60) Lows
Upcoming:
On Sunday, 10th March US clocks change from EST to EDT. As such, the New York to London time gap narrows to four hours for two weeks. Reverting back to the usual five hour gap when UK clocks change on Sunday, 31st March
CHI Inflation
JAP GDP, PPI
AU Bus Confidence, Building Perm
Next week highlights include US CPI + Retail Sales, Japan Rengo 1st tally, UK GDP and Labour Market Report
Speakers:
RBA Hunter
Earnings:
MAJORS:
DX:
Two-way price action on the NFP data which saw a headline beat but a downward revision, upside in unemployment and softer wages, which ultimately saw the Dollar sell off to see the DXY print a low of 102.33 on the dovish implications for the Fed. Nonetheless, the Buck pared off lows, and NFP-induced weakness, as the risk appetite soured throughout the US session.
DOLLAR DX: UNCH: 102.68 UNCH (102.85 – 102.32) Off highs
No call
10 –
AUD:
Nothing of note to report.
AUD UNCH: 66.22 UNCH (66.67 – 66.17) Lows
No call
6
GBP
Pound saw solid gains with GBP/USD rising from lows of c. 1.2800 to a peak of 1.2893 before the dollar staged its revival, taking cable sub 1.2850 to end the week
GBP Up: 128.53 +0.35 % (128.01 – 128.88) Mid rgr
No call
12-
EUR
Was also ultimately flat by the end of the day, although there were several ECB speakers and source reports.
Villeroy said a rate cut is very likely in the “Spring”, which he described as between April-June 21st. Simkus said a June cut is “very likely”, but a cut in April cannot be ruled out, although the probability is low. Rehn said risks of a premature cut have substantially decreased. Muller, however, said they need more confidence on prices prior to conducting rate cuts. Reuters sources later confirmed that policymakers overwhelmingly favour June for the first rate cut, in fitting with Lagarde’s remarks on Thursday, although some floated the idea of a second cut in July to win over a small group still pushing for an April start.
EUR UNCH: 91.39 UNCH (91.50 – 91.08) Off highs
No call
9-
YEN:
The clear outperformer vs. the Dollar with USD/JPY falling from peaks of 148.11 to lows of 146.49. There were more source reports for the BoJ: Reuters reported the BoJ is leaning towards ending negative rates in March but a key determinant will be the outcome of the March 13th wage talks.
Additionally JiJi reported the central bank is considering a new quantitative policy framework, which would show the outlook of how many JGBs the BoJ is to buy and it would also review YCC. JiJi later revealed the BoJ is considering buying nearly 6tln of JGBs under the new framework.
JPY Down: 147.06 -0.55 % (148.02 – 146.48) Off lows
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold Surged to hit the historic $2200 an ounce mark as a weaker jobless (Revisions, rate increase and slowing wage increases) lead the market to price in a 50%+ chance of a June cut.
Gold did out-perform its silver little brother by over 1% with the latter failing to touch its own psychological mark of the $25 handle. It fell short hitting $24.85 for drifting off as the drama was over and participants consolidated profits from this weeks gains.
GOLD Up: $2184 +0.9% ($2164 – $2202) Mid rgr
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.65% 5,123
– NDX -1.53% 18,018
– DJIA -0.18% 38,722
– RUT -0.10% 2,082
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.02% 17,810.75
– FTSE: -0.43% 7,659.74
– CAC: +0.15% 8,028.01
– ES50: -0.24% 4,962.15
SECTORS (S to W): Technology -1.84%, Consumer Staples -0.83%, Materials -0.56%, Consumer Discretionary -0.5%, Industrials -0.26%, Health -0.24%, Communication Services UNCH, Financials +0.19%, Utilities +0.21%, Energy +0.4%, Real Estate +1.13%
STOCKS
– Costco -7.5%: Weak Revenue & comp sales for February.
– Gap +7.5%: Strong report; EPS, revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and comp, sales all beat. Sees FY24 operating income growth well above analyst forecasts.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 0.92 LOWER AT 78.01/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 0.88 LOWER AT 82.08/BBL
WTI and Brent ended the day, and week, lower as oil was hit on souring risk sentiment in the NY afternoon which was led by the losses in the tech space (NVDA -6%, NDX -1%). The alteration in risk sentiment did not appear to be driven by any particular headline, but as Europe left for the day the downside began to see WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 77.56/bbl and 81.71/bbl, respectively, before settling just off these levels. Nonetheless, there was little crude-specific newsflow to end the week and the crude complex did not see much reaction of the US jobs report (headline beat offset by downward revisions, rising unemployment and soft wages). Elsewhere, the weekend will gather attention from a geopolitical standpoint as the clock ticks down to Ramadan (March 10th) – the deadline set by Israel before a ground offensive in Rafah. For the record, Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count (w/e 8th March) say total rigs fall 7 to 622, which was led by oil rigs and natgas declining 2 to 504 and 4 to 115, respectively. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE Down: $77.94 -$1/-1.5% ($79.97 – $77.60) Lows
BOND YIELDS: (Pricing at 3.45 EST)
US 1-MO 5.373 -0.013
US 6-MO 5.294 -0.008
US 1-YR 4.936 -0.009
US 5-YR 4.062 -0.022
US 10-YR 4.088 -0.004
US 30-YR 4.263 +0.017
2YR/10YR -0.40
CRYPTO
– BTC hits 70k, retraces to 6.5k before back above the 69 handle
– ETH touches 4k before 3825 back to 3950
– SEC’s CHAIR Gensler says Crypto ‘rife with abuses and fraud’
– SEC is suing Coinbase and Binance
– SEC: Large companies will be required to disclose emissions from operations known as Scope 1/&2
– SEC: Although pared back Scope 3 (indirect emissions from suppliers and consumers)
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +1122/+1.65% 69050, +28/+0.7% 3938 Highs
No call
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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