MARKET REPORT
Review:
– HAMAS walk out of hostage talks (after their demands weren’t unilaterally met)
– Sweden officially joins NATO, ending decades of neutrality
– Powell notes Fed “not far” from cutting rates
– NASDAQ hits another record 18334, +3% past 4 weeks up 50% last 12 months.
– SP500 hits all time high 5150, +3% last month, up 29% last 12 months
– US Labour market cooled: Jobless claims grew more than expected, labour costs rose less than expected in Q4 and layoffs for the month of February highest since 2009
– Euro hits 7 week highs despite ECB leaving rates unchanged and acknowledging inflation falling faster than expected in revising inflation and growth forecasts lower
– EuroStoxx 50 hit 23 yr high; Stoxx 500, French and German markets all time highs
– Largarde says rate cuts NOT discussed at this meeting, need more evidence inflation moving to target
– Hawkish BoJ
– SEC delays decision on BTC ETF options trading
– Dollar down, Equities up, Gold up, Crypto holds recent highs, Crude flat.
DOLLAR DX: Down: 102.78 -0.52 % (103.30 -102.77 ) Lows
– AUD Up: 66.19 +0.85 % (65.70 – 66.23) Highs
– EUR Down: 91.32 -0.45 % (91.99 – 91.31) Lows
– GBP Up: 128.08 +0.61 % (127.30 – 128.10) Highs
– JPY Down: 148.08 -0.83 % (148.75 – 147.59) Mid rgr
GOLD Up: $2166 +0.4% ($2171 – $2155) Mid rgr
DOW/ES/ND: 38850 +0.4 %, 5165 +1.0 %, 18325 +1.5 % Highs
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +500/+0.75% 67755, 48/+1.25% 3925 Highs
CRUDE Down: $78.90 -$0.25/-0.3% ($79.50 – $78.06) Mid High
Upcoming:
EU: GDP, Employment
CAD: Employment
ALL EYES:
US: NFP!
– Headline Forecast 197k Prev 353k
– Avg Hourly Earnings MoM Forecast 0.3% Prev 0.6%, YoY Fore4.3% Prev 4.5%
– Participation Forecast 62.6% Prev 62.5%
CHI Inflation
Speakers:
Fed’s Williams
Earnings:
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar Index was lower on Thursday, ahead of the pivotal jobs report on Friday, largely on the back on Yen strength and Powell stating rate cuts are coming soon.
Initial jobless claims were higher than expected (217k, exp. 215k) and Q4 unit labor costs saw an unexpected revision lower (0.4%, prev. 0.5%, exp. 0.6%) indicating a cooling housing market futher supporting case for cuts. The DXY hit a low of 102.80 where it closed.
DOLLAR DX: Down: 102.78 -0.52 % (103.30 -102.77 ) Lows
No call pre NFP
10 –
AUD:
Aussie firming was more Dollar weakening than the Battler firming. Powell and a Hawkish BoJ the main drivers to firm the Aussie to a 66+ close. Worth mentioning that the Antipodeans were already benefiting from the Yuan read across after constructive Chinese trade data.
AUD Up: 66.19 +0.85 % (65.70 – 66.23) Highs
No call pre NFP
6
GBP/EUR
For the Sterling watchers, in the BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel the one-year ahead CPI inflation expectations declined further to 3.3% in February, down from 3.4% in January.
GBP Up: 128.08 +0.61 % (127.30 – 128.10) Highs
No call pre NFP
12-
EUR
EUR benefitted from the Dollar selling in the NY session. Prior to this, the single currency was worst G10 performer as the ECB maintained its rates, as expected, whilst slashing its inflation forecasts which now sees 2025 headline inflation at the 2% target.
Lagarde suggested they do not need to wait until 2% to cut, but the Governing Council did not discuss cuts at this meeting. Lagarde indicated that a cut could be at the June meeting.
Elsewhere, German industrial orders for January plunged 11.3%, deeper than the expected 6% fall and vs. the prior +12.0%
EUR Down: 91.32 -0.45 % (91.99 – 91.31) Lows
No call pre NFP
9-
YEN:
JPY saw strong gains against the Dollar, albeit is now well-off best levels, on the back of hawkish BoJ Speak from Governor Ueda and Board Member Nakagawa, on top of reports some Japanese government officials are said to support a near-term BoJ liftoff.
Added to which, Rengo wage demand was lifted to 5.85% (prev. 4.49%) and Japanese labour cash earnings were way above the prior and expectations. As such, USD/JPY hit a low of 147.59 against an earlier peak of 149.39.
A March (19th) hike at the BoJ is now seen as nearly a coin toss by money markets with 28bps of hikes priced across the whole year.
JPY Down: 148.08 -0.83 % (148.75 – 147.59) Mid rgr
No call pre NFP
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Another consolidation day for gold despite a Powell hint of rate cuts ‘Soon’.
Momentum is clearly outweighing fundamentals with a FOMO and broader market interest outweighing nerves of a Risk-On (Cash from safety, Gold, Treasuries, to equities.
Appears beginning (?) of a longer Bull run.
SI appears poised to crack the psychological $25 mark eying its $27 Highs.
GOLD Up: $2166 +0.4% ($2171 – $2155) Mid rgr
No call pre NFP
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +1.03% 5,157
– NDX +1.56% 18,297
– DJIA +0.34% 38,791
– RUT +0.81% 2,084
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.14% 17,868.25
– FTSE: +0.17% 7,692.46
– CAC: +0.77% 8,016.22
– ES50: +1.19% 4,974.05
SECTORS (S to W): – Technology +1.89%, Communication Services +1.84%, Materials +1.22%, Consumer Discretionary +0.87%, Industrials +0.83%, Energy +0.78%, Utilities +0.61%, Health +0.49%, Consumer Staples +0.49%, Real Estate -0.05%, Financials -0.15%
STOCKS
– Victoria’s Secret -29.5%: Sees next quarter sales falling more than forecasted with FY outlook also light
– Rivian +13.5%: Had its R2 event; Deliveries are expected to start in H1 2026 and pricing begins around USD 45k. Also announced R3 sibling vehicle and higher-performance R3X model. Total savings estimated to be over USD 2.25bln vs. original forecast of launching the first line of R2 production at Georgia site. Pauses plans for new EV factory in Georgia.
– Intel +3.5%: US government is poised to invest USD 3.5bln in the chipmaker so it can produce advanced semiconductors for military and intelligence programmes.
– Kroger +10%: Profit beat with SSS ex-gas not as bad as feared. FY bottom line view topped consensus.
– Apple flat: EU antitrust regulators requested further explanation from Apple after it blocked Epic Games in the EU. Following this, Apple snapped back saying it exercised its right.
– American Express +2.5%: Board approves 17% dividend increase to USD 0.70/shr (prev. 0.60/shr).
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 0.20 LOWER AT 78.93/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED FLAT AT 82.96/BBL
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday in choppy trade with positive China trade data and a softer US Dollar failing to ignite meaningful upside. China reported a 3.3% increase Y/Y in crude imports, although that pick-up was offset by another grim reading in German industrial orders. WTI and Brent hit session lows of USD 78.02/bbl and 82.07/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning, before recovering to little changed as the Dollar tumbled with yields. In the Middle East, Hamas has said it will continue negotiations to release Israeli hostages and a ceasefire despite its representatives leaving talks without a breakthrough. Meanwhile, IEA’s head of oil markets forecasted a relatively balanced market in Q2, saying that is why the impact of the OPEC+ cuts was relatively muted, adding that the IEA sees the oil market to be relatively well supplied this year. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE Down: $78.90 -$0.25/-0.3% ($79.50 – $78.06) Mid High
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5. U/A
US 6-MO 5. U/A
US 1-YR 4. U/A
US 5-YR 4. U/A
US 10-YR 4. U/A
US 30-YR 4. U/A
2YR/10YR U/A
CRYPTO
– SEC Defers decision on spot BTC ETF Options Trading
– Rate at which BTC is mined will be cut in half next month. Happens every four years.
– Theoretical 21Mil BTC’s which will be mined in total. Expected hit around 2040
– JP Morgan talking a $42k aim post hype over halving
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +500/+0.75% 67755, 48/+1.25% 3925 Highs
No call pre NFP
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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