MARKET REPORT
Review:
– BTC to the moon. FOMO or Retracement?
– Fed’s Bostic does not expect rate cuts to be “back-to-back”
– AAPL faces EUR 1.8bln fine
– EQT to cut gas production
– SMCI joining S&P 500
– US Primary “Super Tuesday”
– Trump Supreme court win
– Haiti collapses. World is stunned.
– Yellow stuff soars
– Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar flat.
DOLLAR DX: UNCH: 103.79 UNCH (103.91 – 103.68) Mid to lows
– AUD down small: 65.08 -0.2% (65.28 – 65.08) Lows
– EUR down small: 92.08 -0.2% (92.24 – 92.00) Off lows
– GBP up: 126.90 +0.3% (127.05 – 126.62) Mid to highs
– JPY up: 150.48 +0.3% (150.15 – 150.56) Highs
GOLD UP UP UP: $2123 +1.35% ($290 – $2128) Highs!
DOW/ES/ND: 38990 -0.3%, 5134 -0.2%, 18240 -0.5%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +4500/+7% 67500, +90/+2.5% 3580
CRUDE down: $78.75 -1.5% ($80.32 – $78.59) Lows
Upcoming:
– UK BRC Retail Sales,
– JAP, CHI, EUR, UK, US PMI
– EUR Producer Prices
– US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Durable Goods, ISM
Speakers:
– BoJ Ueda
– Fed Barr
Earnings: Volvo, Bayer, Thales, Target, CrowdStrike
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar was ultimately flat on Monday with no US data released in what was a very quiet session, with DXY trading between 103.72 and 103.96. The “highlight” was remarks from Fed’s Bostic (voter), who said when rate cuts start they would not be back to back, but likely followed by a pause, noting he still sees two rate cuts this year, with the first cut taking place in Q3.
DOLLAR DX: UNCH: 103.79 UNCH (103.91 – 103.68) Mid to lows
No call
1 –
AUD:
Nothing much to report with a limited rge, low vol session. Nothing of interest here.
AUD down small: 65.08 -0.2% (65.28 – 65.08) Lows
No call
6-
GBP:
Ground higher but I REALLY like this 127/127.50 top, as a top. A move to fade. 130 isnt going to happen.
GBP up: 126.90 +0.3% (127.05 – 126.62) Mid to highs
No call
12-
EUR
The EU data highlight was the March Sentix Index, which saw a marginal beat but still in negative territory, seeing the fifth increase in a row, although it cautioned it would probably be an exaggeration to speak of a Spring revival.
EUR down small: 92.08 -0.2% (92.24 – 92.00) Off lows
No call
9-
YEN:
Was softer vs the Dollar, primarily due to rising UST yields ahead of Tokyo CPI data
JPY up: 150.48 +0.3% (150.15 – 150.56) Highs
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Notable outperformer despite the upside in UST yields with gold rallying alongside silver prices on little fresh fundamental news. Although the Crypto bid has also been cited, tailwinds from the back-end of last week also helped the precious metal continue its ascent to see four consecutive days of gains to test the record peaks seen in December 2023 of 2,135/oz.
Watch for FOMO
WATCH FOR FOMO
GOLD UP UP UP: $2123 +1.35% ($290 – $2128) Highs!
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.12% 5,131
– NDX -0.42% 18,226
– DJI -0.25% 38,990
– RUT -0.1% 2,074
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.03% 17,710.45
– FTSE 100: -0.55% 7,640.33
– CAC 40: +0.28% 7,956.41
– ES50: +0.32% 4,910.65
SECTORS (S to W): Utilities +1.64%, Real Estate +1.07%, Materials +0.7%, Industrials +0.38%, Financials +0.23%, Technology +0.21%, Consumer Staples +0.11%, Health -0.13%, Energy -1.08%, Consumer Discretionary -1.27%, Communication Services -1.51%.
STOCKS
– Tesla -7%: Shipments of China-made vehicles fell 19% Y/Y in February.
– Apple -2.5%: Is to face an EU fine in excess of EUR 1.8bln regarding the Spotify complaint. In other news, Evercore removed Apple from its ‘Tactical Outperform’ list. Lastly, Apple (AAPL) unveiled the new 13- and 15-inch MacBook Air with the powerful M3 chip.
– Spirit AeroSystems +4%: Boeing confirmed they have been prelim discussions about making SPR part of the Co. again
– Crypto exposed stocks, such as MicroStrategy , Coinbase, Marathon Digital, benefitted from the gains seen in Bitcoin.
– DoorDash +4% and Lyft +7%: Upgraded at RBC Capital.
– JetBlue +5%, Spirit Airlines -11%: JBLU announced the termination of its merger with SAVE.
– American Airlines -5.5%: Ordered 85 Airbus (AIR FP) A321NEO jets, 85 Boeing 737 MAX 10 and 90 Embraer E175 aircrafts. Expects to remain within previous guidance for capacity and CapEx inclusive of aircraft orders. Orders also include options and purchase rights for further 193 aircrafts. Forecasts 2024 FCF of roughly USD 2bln; 2024 adj. EBITDAR margin of about 14%; 2025 adj. EBITDAR margin about 14-16%.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 1.23 LOWER AT 78.74/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 0.75 LOWER AT 82.80/BBL
Oil prices were lower on Monday after last week’s breakout higher failed to extend despite OPEC+ extending its production cuts. OPEC+ extended their voluntary output cuts of 2.2mln BPD into Q2, in line with reporting and expectations built last week, and therefore, likely a “sell the news” event. Nonetheless, there was some surprise given Russia announced it would deepen its production and export cuts by a further 471k BPD. Meanwhile, there may be some geopolitical risk premia being unwound with Gaza ceasefire discussions ongoing, albeit Israel is not present at the discussions. Elsewhere, Iran is opening a new phase at its southern oilfields with output set to rise to 100k BPD from 40k BPD as soon as the second phase of the oilfields is operational, according to IRNA.
NAT GAS: Nat gas futures surged after EQT announced it would curtail nearly 1 BCF/D of production through March in response to the low price environment amid warm winter weather and elevated storage inventories; expects to maintain curtailment through the month of March and will reassess market conditions thereafter. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.375 UNCH
US 6-MO 5.314 UNCH
US 1-YR 4.993 UNCH
US 5-YR 4.21 UNCH
US 10-YR 4.217 -0.002
US 30-YR 4.352 UNCH
2YR/10YR -0.40
CRYPTO:
iBtcoin hit a $67,500 high Monday, and is rapidly approaching silver’s nearly $1.4 trillion market capitalization.
Ether topped $3,600 for the first time since January 2022 amid strong institutional demand.
BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF saw another busy trading day, recording over $2 billion in volume before market close.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} continued to knock off $1,000 milestones Monday, surging past $67,000 and nearing not just its own record high of $69,000, but the nearly $1.4 trillion market capitalization of silver.
The largest and oldest crypto asset broke out from its week-long sideways consolidation capped below the $64,000 level, hitting $67,500 during the U.S. trading session, up 7% over the past 24 hours and outperforming the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index’s (CD20) 5% advance.
With this year’s meteoric rise, BTC is rapidly becoming one of the largest global assets, and at current levels has surpassed the $1.3 trillion market capitalization threshold. It is now closing in on silver’s market cap of $1.4 trillion, according to data compiled by CompaniesMarketCap after earlier in this bull run toppling that of Facebook parent company Meta Platforms (META).
Monday’s price action also squeezed bitcoin shorts – trading positions betting on lower prices – liquidating some $120 million of leveraged bets during the day, predominantly shorts, CoinGlass data shows.
Ether {{ETH}}, the second largest crypto by market cap, rose above $3,600 on Monday for the first time since 2022, but underperformed BTC and the CD20 with just a 3.5% daily gain.
Meme coins are on a tear, with dog-themed cryptocurrencies dogecoin {{DOGE}} and shiba inu {{SHIB}} being the best-performing tokens in the CD20, advancing 15% and 54% over the past 24 hours, respectively.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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