MARKET REPORT
Review:
– US GDP growth revised slightly up to 3.4% for Q4 2023, above 3.2% prev reported
– US Weekly Jobless 210k vs Exp 215K
– US Corporate Profits Growth +3.9% in Q4 ($2.8 TRILLION)
– US Chicago PMI points to 4th successive contraction (41.4 vs Prev 44 prior month)
– US Michigan consumer sentiment 3yr high (79.4 in Mar)
– US Pending Home Sales Rebound (+1.6% vs Exp +1.5%)
– US Year-ahead Inflation expectations revised slightly down (2.9% vs 3.0%)
– Botswana GDP grows by 1.9% in Q4. I love me too.
– CAC closes week at record high
– Euro Stoxx close at multi-decade highs
– DAX record high
– BlackRock CEO ‘Very Bullish’ on BTC
– SBF sentenced to 25yrs (Pays to be a Democrat)
– Trump overtakes Soros Net worth
Prices at 3.30PM EST
DOLLAR DX up small: 104.28 +0.2% (104.04 – 104.44) MID Rge
– AUD down small: 65.17 -0.3% (65.39 – 64.86) MID Rge
– EUR up small: 92.67 +0.35% (92.35 – 92.78) MID Rge
– GBP down small: 126.22 -0.11 (125.87 – 126.51) MID Rge
– JPY up small: 151.40 +0.1% (151.48 – 151.15) Off Highs
GOLD UP: $2240 +1.25% ($2211 – $2245) Off Highs
DOW/ES/ND up smalls/flat: 40222 +0.2%, 5320 +0.2%, 18500 UNCH
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: +2344/+3.42% 70857, +89/+2.5% 3573
CRUDE UP: $83.07 +2.0%/+$1.72 ($81.52 – $83.20) HIGHS
Upcoming:
JAP Tokyo CPI, Unemployment Rate Fri
US PCE/Income/Spending Inflation data Fri!
CHI NBS Manufacturing, Caixin Manufacturing
JAP: Tanken Manu Index (Weekend)
Speakers:
POWELL! (Fri)
MAJORS:
DX:
Marginally firmer but traded within tight parameters on Thursday despite several data points to digest and remarks from Fed’s Waller Wednesday evening. The Dollar did see some slight strength on Waller’s remarks where he said there is still no rush to cut rates, noting that the recent hot inflation data was disappointing and he believes it is appropriate to reduce the number of overall cuts, or push them further into the future. The European morning saw the DXY push to highs supported by Euro weakness after dismal German retail sales data. On US data, Q4 23 GDP was revised up while Core PCE prices were revised down. Jobless claims were in line, Chicago PMI missed while UoM sentiment was revised up and inflation expectations were revised down. Pending home sales beat.
No call
AUD:
Antipodes were sold vs the buck with underperformance in the Kiwi to see AUD/NZD rise above 1.09 despite a miss in Aussie retail sales data
No call
GBP
Sterling was softer vs the buck but firmer vs the Euro. BoE’s Haskell (hawk) warned against rushing to cut rates, noting cuts should be a long way off. Meanwhile, Q4 23 GDP was in line with expectations and unchanged from the prior. Meanwhile, the latest Citi/YouGov poll saw consumer inflation expectations ease for both the 1 and 5-10yr forecasts. Cable traded either side of 1.2600
No call
EUR
EUR lost hold of 1.08 to lows of 1.0775 after the German retail sales miss although the cross managed to rebound back above the level to c. 1.0815 amid a weak US Chicago PMI print. Nonetheless, the Dollar’s slow grind higher throughout the rest of the session saw EUR/USD slip back beneath the psychological 1.08. There were some notably dovish remarks from ECB’s Villeroy late in the session who called on the need to take out insurance against a hard landing by starting to cut rates, adding it is not important whether they cut in April or June, but they should cut in the Spring, independent of the Fed’s decision. He also said the ECB will likely start with a “moderate” cut, after that it doesn’t have to cut at each meeting though it should keep that option
No call
9-
YEN:
Yen was flat vs the buck and traded between 151.16-151.54 with more jawboning from officials in an apparent attempt to keep the pair sub 152. ING suspects “authorities would pull the trigger were USD/JPY to burst through the 152 area, intervening perhaps somewhere in the 153-155 range.” That adds to JPM’s spot FX desk who believe a swift move through 153 could serve as the trigger.
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
A close above $2200 Yest had Gold surge going into a long easter Weekend. STRONG RES at $2300
Feeling Toppy around $2500. Expect it to struggle above.
Sell 2250+
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.11% 5,254
– NDX -0.14% 18,255
– DJI +0.12% 39,807
– RUT +0.48% 2,125.
EUR INDEXES:
– CAC: +0.01% 8,206
– DAX: +0.15% 18,505
– FTSE: +0.26% 7,953
– ES50: +0.02% 5,083
SECTORS (S to W): Energy +1.1%, Utilities +0.76%, Real Estate +0.69%, Financials +0.57%, Materials +0.26%, Consumer Staples +0.17%, Health +0.11%, Industrials +0.07%, Technology -0.11%, Consumer Discretionary -0.14%, Communication Services -0.3%.
STOCKS
– AMC Entertainment -14%: Files to sell up to USD 250mln in common stock.
– Apple -1%: Set to release new iPad models in May after long wait; to release 12.9-inch iPad Air and OLED version of iPad Pro; suppliers are ramping up production ahead of launch, according to Bloomberg.
– Walgreens +3.3%: EPS and revenue beat, but cut FY EPS view citing “challenging retail environment in the US”.
– Disney +1%: Blackwells Capital sues Disney (DIS) in Delaware court to seek books and records to determine possible disclosure violations in its dealings with hedge fund ValueAct, via Court Filing.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLES USD 1.82 HIGHER AT 83.17/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLES USD 1.39 HIGHER AT 87.48/BBL
Oil futures ripped higher into the long weekend on Thursday, marking their third consecutive week of gains. The bulk of the gains were made during the European morning and were held on to during the US session in the absence of an obvious catalyst with speculation ranging from month-end buying to hedging against geopolitical risk over the long weekend. The Dollar was flat too so there was no impulse there. In newsflow, Reuters reported the supply of the five North Sea crude grades which underpin Brent is to average 654k BPD in May, maintained from April. Reuters separately reported Russia’s daily offline primary refining capacity has risen by a third in March from February to 4.079mln T. And in the US, the Baker Hughes US rig count (w/e March 28th) saw oil rigs down three at 506 and Nat Gas rigs flat at 112. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.368 +0.015
US 6-MO 5.331 +0.013
US 1-YR 5.035 +0.036
US 5-YR 4.219 +0.031
US 10-YR 4.206 +0.01
US 30-YR 4.349 -0.01
2YR/10YR -0.42
CRYPTO
– SBF Sentenced to 25yrs. Who says being a Democrat doesn’t pay?
– Coins back near highs.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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