MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Japanese officials jawbone after USD/JPY printed a 33yr high
– SARB & Riksbank hold rates, as expected
– India’s gold imports set to fall over 90% in March M/M
– Strong 7yr auction
– EIA Crude build, but not as large as private inventories
– Reddit stock down 11%
– Coinbase falls after judge rules SEC suit can go forward
– Amazon Invests 2.75B in Anthropic
– SBF Sentenced tomorrow
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.01 UNCH (Data unavailable) DA
– AUD UNCH: 65.34 UNCH (Data unavailable) DA
– EUR UNCH: 92.32 UNCH (Data unavailable) DA
– GBP UNCH: 126.33 UNCH (Data unavailable) DA
– JPY UNCH: 151.24 -0.18% (Data unavailable) DA
GOLD UP: $2215 +0.75% (Data unavailable) DA
DOW/ES/ND up: 40150 +1.18%, 5308 0.82%, 18505 +0.3%
CRYPTO down: BTC/ETH: -733/-1% 69187, 63/-1.78% 3516 DA
CRUDE UNCH: $81.72 UNCH/UNCH (Data unavailable) DA
Upcoming:
SHORTENED WEEK EASTER
GE Retail Sales, Unemployment
UK GDP
US GDP (F), IJC, UoM Inflation Expectations (F)
JAP Tokyo CPI, Unemployment Rate
PLEASE NOTE CRUCIAL PCE (Income & Expenditure) released GOOD FRIDAY WHEN MARKETS ARE CLOSED!
Speakers:
ECB: Knot
BoE: Mann
RBNZ: Orr
Earnings: Walgreens
MAJORS:
DX:
Flat on Wednesday in light newsflow as traders await Fed’s Waller at 22:00GMT/18:00EDT who is speaking on economic outlook. Waller’s remarks come after the FOMC left its view for three rate cuts this year, but saw less rate reductions on the horizon. As a quick reminder, speaking in February, Waller said that the Fed was in no rush to begin the rate reduction cycle, noting that incoming economic data would be key in shaping his view for the number and timing of rate cuts; he also said that he wanted to wait for longer before he had enough confidence that rate cuts would keep the Fed on course for its 2% inflation goal. Speaking in March, Waller said that upcoming balance sheet decisions had no bearing on monetary policy, which were about getting liquidity levels to the right level.
UoM (Thurs) are due ahead of PCE and Powell on Friday, but it is Good Friday so all markets except FX are closed.
No call
AUD:
Aussie CPI was cooler than expected, maintaining the prior month pace of 3.4%, while the battler was also weighed on by lower iron prices and a softer Yuan.
No call
GBP
Nothing of note to report
No call
EUR
Spanish CPI was in line with expectations as was EU Consumer Confidence. ECB’s Kazaks said inflation is slowing, first-rate cut is nearing and doesn’t object to the market view of a June rate cut.
No call
YEN:
JPY was the G10 focus and USD/JPY saw lows of 151.04 after overnight it surpassed its November 2023 high with an intraday peak of 151.97 for its highest level since 1990. The Yen saw strength after news that Japan’s BoJ, MoF and FSA are to hold a meeting to discuss international financial markets, but gains soon eased after Top Currency Diplomat Kanda said recent Yen moves are not reflecting fundamentals. Looking ahead, some desks have flagged the possibility of intervention during thin Easter markets, with JPM’s spot FX desk warning a swift move towards 153 could stoke action. For the record, a slew of other officials spoke – BoJ’s Ueda and Tamura spoke with the latter noting the Bank is likely to maintain accommodative monetary conditions for the time being, while Finance Minister Suzuki closely watching FX moves and won’t rule out any steps including decisive steps to respond to disorderly FX moves.
No call
GOLD & SILVER:
“Any Dips futher opportunity to get long. $2150 for support, expect re-test $2200 some stage. “
YEST MKT REPORT
Hope some made money.
Reports India to drastically cut MoM imports from 110t to 10t on back of high gold pricing.
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.86% 5,248
– NDX +0.39% 18,280
– DJIA +1.22% 39,760
– RUT +2.13% 2,114.
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.49% 18,475
– FTSE: +0.01% 7,932
– CAC: +0.25% 8,205
– ES50: +0.37% 5,083
SECTORS (S to W): Utilities +2.75%, Real Estate +2.42%, Industrials +1.6%, Materials +1.44%, Health +1.3%, Financials +1.22%, Consumer Discretionary +1.1%, Consumer Staples +0.96%, Energy +0.94%, Technology +0.12%, Communication Services +0.11%.
STOCKS
– Regional Banks: S&P said some US regional banks could see asset quality and performance hit by stresses in commercial real estate. Accordingly, the credit rating agency lowered its outlook on five lenders to negative from stable. Those five were: First Commonwealth Financial, M&T Bank, Synovus Financial, Trustmark and Valley National Bancorp.
– Trump Media & Technology Group +14%: Shares of former President Trump’s social media firm soared, adding to their strong gains from their debut under the DJT ticker on Tuesday.
– Coinbase -4%: Downside attributed to court update that the Coinbase case has not been dismissed; Court denies COIN motion for judgement.
– Merck +5%: FDA approved Co.’s life-threatening lung condition treatment for use among adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension.
– GameStop -15%: Top and bottom-line light and said it has recently undertaken cost reduction measures to improve efficiency, including initiatives to reduce headcount.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 0.27 LOWER AT 81.35/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 0.16 LOWER AT 86.09/BBL
Oil prices were lower on Wednesday, albeit off worst levels, amid bearish US inventory figures in a holiday-thinning trading environment. WTI and Brent hit session lows of USD 80.55/bbl and 85.17/bbl, respectively, in the London morning before recovering through the session, gradually. The EIA data saw crude stocks build 3.2mln bbls in the latest week, including a 2.1mln bbl build at Cushing, with gasoline stocks building 1.3mln bbls and distillates drawing 1.2mln bbls. Meanwhile, in Russia, Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery resumed operations at its primary oil refining unit CDU-4 that was suspended after the fire on March 13th, according to Reuters sources, with crude processing unit rising to 60% of normal capacity. The reports said Ryazan is to resume operations at the primary oil refining unit CDU-6 by the end of March and fully restore production shortly after. Reuters also reported that Russia has increased gasoline imports from Belarus in March to offset fuel shortage risks. In the Middle East, Israel is reportedly planning to launch a ground military operation in Rafah by the middle of April or early May at the latest, according to Egyptian sources cited by pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar Daily. Finally, Nigeria is also seeing an increase in exports amid its new refinery coming online, a preliminary report sees exports of the four key Nigerian crude oil programmes rising to 719.7k BPD in May from 654.7k BPD in April. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.353 -0.011
US 6-MO 5.316 UNCH
US 1-YR 4.999 -0.006
US 5-YR 4.183 -0.043
US 10-YR 4.188 -0.046
US 30-YR 4.349 -0.05
2YR/10YR -0.38
CRYPTO
– Biggest weekly outflow on record last week
– SBF Sentenced tomorrow
– Hasdex Mgmt Ltd (DEFI), Brazilian Crypto Investment firm with $1B in assets stated its spot Bitcoin ETF began trading
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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