MARKET REPORT
Review:
– US Durable Goods rebound more than Exp. Act +1.4% vs Exp +1.1% for Feb.
– US House Prices fall first time in 17mths.
– US Consumer Confidence misses
– Trump sells Truth Social, adds $3B to Net Wealth. Doubles Net Worth to $6.5B. Now one of 500 wealthiest in world.
– Fun Fact. DJT is around $75 per share. He has 80 million. If (when?) the share price hits $12,700 Orange man will be a Trillionaire.
– Container ship destroys key traffic bridge in Baltimore, blocking Port.
– P Diddy raided for people smuggling/Sex trafficking
– China filed a World Trade Organization complaint against the U.S. on Tuesday over what it says are discriminatory requirements for electric vehicle subsidies. Yup, Now Ive heard it all.
– Israel said hostage talks at dead-end
– iPhone shipments tumble in China
– McDonalds set to sell Krispy Crème Donuts in their ‘restaurants’. Stock up 40%
– Meme stock ((Reddit +13% today, +30% IPO, Trump Media and Tech Group, DJT +50% today, Crypto (BTC +200% YTD) and Commodities Cocoa (+50%, one month, GC +7%) Bull markets. Momentum (FOMO?) market vs fundamentals market.
– Everything Flat or down smalls. Treasuries up.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.01 UNCH (data unavailable) DA
– AUD UNCH: 65.33 UNCH (data unavailable) DA
– EUR UNCH: 92.31 UNCH (data unavailable) DA
– GBP UNCH: 126.27 UNCH (data unavailable) DA
– JPY UNCH: 151.55 UNCH (data unavailable) DA
GOLD UNCH: $2176 UNCH (data unavailable) DA
DOW/ES/ND UNCH: 39728 UNCH, 5273 UNCH, 18481 -0.17%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down smalls: -1165/-1.65% 69745, -59/-1.6% 3569
CRUDE Down: $81.30 -0.8%/-$0.65 (data unavailable) DA
Upcoming:
EU: Confidence, Inflation Expec
US: Crude stocks
AU: Retail sales, Housing/Private Credit
Speakers:
ECB: Cipollone, Knot
US: Waller
MAJORS:
DX:
Flat on Tuesday, but hit earlier peaks of 104.330 as it saw notable strength into the London fix heading into month and quarter-end. Prior to this, the data docket garnered little market reaction, although Durable Goods for February was stronger than expected, but March Consumer Confidence underwhelmed as the headline printed 104.7 (prev. 104.8) shy of the expected 107.0. Elsewhere, newsflow was light with no Fed speak as participants await Waller after-hours on Wednesday ahead of PCE on Friday, despite it being Good Friday. In addition, BofA analysts declared the USD bulls are back in a note, revealing that both hedge funds and real money are buying the dollar. While hedge funds are long the greenback, BofA said, “real money positioning [is] light.”
No call
AUD:
Nothing of note to report. AUSSIE DATA OUT!
No call Pre Aussie data
GBP
BoE’s Mann who reasserted her hawkish position on the MPC, despite voting unchanged last week, as she said markets are pricing in too many rate cuts.
No call
EUR
ECB’s Muller said the bank is closer to the point of cutting rates while Stournaras noted it appears that there is a consensus for a June rate reduction.
No call
9-
YEN:
BoJ said three indicators for Japan’s core price trend come in lower in February than the prior month. Meanwhile, more jawboning from officials was seen, Japan’s Business Lobby Chief said via Kyodo that USD/JPY beyond 150.00 is excessive (USD/JPY currently at 151.55)
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold had a morning surge to 2200 (Where Ive had Resistance for a while then collapsed back to 2170’s. I hope people got on last 2 sessions in the 60’s as I urged and reversed around the handle, as I had indicated.
Buy 215+
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.28% 5,203
– NDX -0.36% 18,210
– DJIA -0.08% 39,282
– RUT -0.19% 2,070.
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.76% 18,399
– FTSE: +0.17% 7,931
– CAC: +0.41% 8,185
– ES50: +0.42% 5,065
SECTORS (S to W): Utilities -1.14%, Energy -0.76%, Technology -0.76%, Real Estate -0.45%, Industrials -0.36%, Communication Services -0.21%, Materials -0.11%, Consumer Discretionary -0.05%, Consumer Staples +0.06%, Financials +0.2%, Health +0.34%
STOCKS
– Krispy Kreme +39.5%: McDonalds (MCD) is to sell Krispy Kreme donuts in their US restaurants.
– Trump Media +16%: Shares surged in its first trading day on the Nasdaq.
– Tesla +3%: Offers one-month trials for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) to US customers. In other news, Il Sole 24 Ore reports officials at Italy’s Industry Ministry have contacted Tesla about possibly producing electric trucks in the country.
– Ford -3.5%: CFO says Baltimore Bridge collapse is to affect supply chain; Co. is looking to re-route car parts to other east coast ports.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 0.33 LOWER AT 81.62/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 0.50 LOWER AT 86.25/BBL
The crude complex was mildly softer on Tuesday with little oil-specific catalysts. However, Reuters sources noted OPEC+ is unlikely to change output policy before June meeting and no policy recommendation is expected at next week’s JMMC meeting, although it had no impact on crude prices. Separately, geopolitical updates continue to be rife and suspected Israeli air strikes hit Northeast Lebanon in the furthest bombardment from the border so far in the conflict. Meanwhile, an Israel Official said hostage talks with Hamas are at a dead end, and Israel negotiators packed up and left Doha, although the White House later said National Security Advisor Sullivan and Israel’s Minister of Defense Gallant had a productive meeting. Regarding the ranges, WTI and Brent traded between USD 81.43-82.36/bbl and 86.02-87.06/bbl, respectively, both relatively thin when compared with Monday’s rally. Looking ahead, focus turns to the weekly private inventory data after-hours before the EIA figures on Wednesday. Current expectations are (bbls): Crude -1.3mln, Distillate +0.5mln, Gasoline -1.7mln. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.364 -0.009
US 6-MO 5.316 +0.003
US 1-YR 5.005 +0.008
US 5-YR 4.223 -0.01
US 10-YR 4.238 -0.015
US 30-YR 4.403 -0.023
2YR/10YR -0.36
CRYPTO
– DoJ Charges Crypto exchange KuCoin of money Laundering
– Total short interest in Crypto increased to $11B (S3 Partners) this Yr. 80% vs MicroStrategy & CoinBase
No call
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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