MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Chi Fed Pres Goolsbee “3 rate cuts 2024 in line with my thinking”
– June cut “On and Off table”
– Fed Bostic only see’s one cut this Yr.
– BTC back above 70k Handle, BTC & ETH +7%
– Boeing CEO exits
– FTX to sell majority stake in Anthropic for $884m
– Detroit gains investment grade a decade after bankruptcy
– China blocks use of INTC & AMD in govt tech
– AAPL ends plans to develop microLED displays
– DAX Rises to close fresh record High
– UK Retail Sales rise for 1st time in a yr
– Natural Gas in Europe higher post Moscow attack
– Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda jawbones
– Russia tells oil companies to cut output to 9mln BPD by the end of June
– US Building Permits higher to 1.524m from 1.518m Exp
– Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Rises to 3 month high of 0.05 Feb vs -0.54 Jan
– New Home Sales Drop to 662k Exp 675k, (EXP +0.3%) MoM
– Dallas Fed Manuf Index falls to -14.4 from -11.3 Prev
– Trump Bond reduced to $175m 11th hour (vs $500m)
– Dollar down smalls, GC up smalls, Equities down smalls, Crude Higher Crypto SURGES
DOLLAR DX down small: 103.89 -0.27% (104.12 – 103.84) Off Lows
– AUD up small: 65.38 +0.37% (65.18 – 65.47) Off Highs
– EUR down small: 92.23 -0.26% (92.51 – 92.21) Lows
– GBP up small: 126.38 +0.29% (125.96 – 126.53) Off Highs
– JPY UNCH: 151.42 UNCH (151.07 – 151.53) Off Highs
GOLD up small: $2172 +0.5% ($2161 – $2181) Mid Rge
DOW/ES/ND down small: 39695 -0.4%, 5277 -0.3%, 18513 -0.3%
CRYPTO UP: BTC/ETH: +4800/+7.2% 70900, +250/+7.4% 3637 HIGHS
CRUDE UP: $81.90 +1.6%/$1.27 ($80.75 – $82.45) Off Highs
Upcoming:
SHORTENED WEEK EASTER
AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence
DE: Consumer Confidence
US: Durable Goods, House Price Index, Richmond Fed
PLEASE NOTE CRUCIAL PCE (Income & Expenditure) released GOOD FRIDAY WHEN MARKETS ARE CLOSED!
Speakers:
BoJ Tamura
ECB Lane
MAJORS:
DX:
Fed speak from Bostic, Goolsbee, and Cook failed to alter the dial, despite a hawkish Bostic. Bostic spoke after hours on Friday and again on Monday where he reiterated his his desire of just one rate cut in 2024 (prev. saw two cuts), while Goolsbee said that the median dot plot (three cuts in 2024) was in line with his thinking. In the week ahead, Richmond Fed Mfg. survey and Consumer Confidence (Tues), Waller (Wed), UoM (Thurs) are due ahead of PCE and Powell on Friday, but it is Good Friday so all markets except FX are closed.
DOLLAR DX down small: 103.89 -0.27% (104.12 – 103.84) Off Lows
No call
AUD:
Antipodeans garnered support from the firmer Yuan after news Chinese banks are said to be selling Dollars and a firmer fix from the PBoC. AUD/USD initially tested Friday’s low at 0.6510, before reversing course as risk sentiment improved and etched out a high of 0.6546
Westpac Consumer Confidence Today
AUD up small: 65.38 +0.37% (65.18 – 65.47) Off Highs
No call
GBP
– UK Retail Sales rise for 1st time in a yr
GBP up small: 126.38 +0.29% (125.96 – 126.53) Off Highs
No call
EUR
Little new for the Euro, although ECB’s Panetta and Chief Economist Lane spoke, with the latter confident that wage growth is slowing as expected and confident the wage normalization process is on track.
EUR down small: 92.23 -0.26% (92.51 – 92.21) Lows
No call
YEN:
Top currency diplomat Kanda was jawboning overnight and said they have been closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and will take appropriate steps to respond to excessive weakness of the Yen without excluding any measures. Meanwhile, Bank of America desk notes that intervention is seen as a ‘realistic option’ to support the Yen, especially if the USD/JPY cross rises to the 152-155 zone.
JPY UNCH: 151.42 UNCH (151.07 – 151.53) Off Highs
No call
GOLD & SILVER:
“A possible flush out of nervous longs down to 2150+ is an opp to go long. Anything below 2170 ease in as I doubt we’ll see a number starting with 215
Buy Dips is now the firm case.”
THURS MKT REPORT
“I issued a Buy call at 2160 in General Chat additionally today.
Again, Anything which starts with a 215 I believe is a good buy.
Buy Dips.”
FRI MKT REPORT
Although we didn’t quite touch the 50 handle we trade lowed 60’s for a duration providing ample opportunity (Refer I state anything below 2170 is a buy) to get longs for a return to upward movement.
Goldman came out today calling for a $2300 Years end Gold price.
Silver continues to drift around the $25 handle mark, AGAIN underperforming its Yellow brother.
GOLD up small: $2172 +0.5% ($2161 – $2181) Mid Rge
Any Dips futher opportunity to get long. $2150 for support, expect re-test $2200 some stage.
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.31% 5,218
– NDX -0.34% 18,227
– DJIA -0.14% 39,313
– RUT +0.10% 2,074
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.34% 18,268
– FTSE: -0.17% 7,918
– CAC: UNCH at 8,152
– ES50: +0.26% 5,044
SECTORS (S to W): Industrials -0.68%, Technology -0.52%, Real Estate -0.42%, Communication Services -0.35%, Financials -0.29%, Consumer Staples -0.27%, Consumer Discretionary -0.21%, Health -0.16%, Materials +0.03%, Utilities +0.46%, Energy +0.92%
STOCKS
– Boeing +1.5%: CEO Calhoun intends to step down at end-2024. CEO said hopefully they will see a deal soon with Spirit AeroSystems +1.3%.
– Apple -1%: Ended its project to develop microLED displays.
– Intel -1.5% AMD -0.5%: China implements new guidelines to phase out US microprocessors like Intel and AMD from government PCs and servers.
– Nvidia +1%: Google (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM) execs say they plan to battle Nvidia AI dominance through the UXL Foundation.
– United Airlines -3.5%: US aviation regulators mull severe measures to limit United Airlines’ expansion. – – Foot Locker +6%: Upgraded at Evercore after meeting with the Cos. management team last week.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 1.32 HIGHER AT 81.95/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 1.32 HIGHER AT 86.75/BBL
The crude complex was firmer on rising geopolitical tensions while highs were seen after Reuters reported that Russia told oil companies to cut output to 9mln BPD by the end of June. The report added that this is in line with its OPEC+ pledges and the move is also to facilitate a seasonal peak in maintenance at refineries. In the wake of the news breaking WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 82.48/bbl and 87.17/bbl, respectively, albeit now sit off best levels. Elsewhere, newsflow was thin to start the week with participants cognizant of the several ongoing global geopolitical situations ahead of the macro risk events later in the week. On the Russia terrorist attack, Russian President Putin claimed that the Moscow attackers were helped by Ukraine and he recently suggested that the attack by radical Islamists is also part of the Kiev regime’s attacks on Russia, noting Russia wants to figure out who ordered the crime. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE UP: $81.90 +1.6%/$1.27 ($80.75 – $82.45) Off Highs
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.373 +0.005
US 6-MO 5.32 +0.021
US 1-YR 4.997 +0.024
US 5-YR 4.233 +0.033
US 10-YR 4.249 +0.031
US 30-YR 4.418 +0.026
2YR/10YR -0.38
CRYPTO
– BTC/ETH SURGE on FOMO NOT short squeeze suggesting not many participants short on leverage, WELL below AVG (See chart below)
– BTC & ETH +9%, BTC trades above the $70k handle
– INDIGO HF calls $60k area loaded with bid’s
CRYPTO UP: BTC/ETH: +4800/+7.2% 70900, +250/+7.4% 3637 HIGHS
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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