– CAD Retail Sales Edge Higher
– DOW best week of 2024 (though drops 300pts today)
– FedEx UP, Nike DOWN (24 wk low), LULU LEMON DOWN, Tesla Curbs China output
– Soft Japan inflation, wage tally eased slightly
– German Ifo beats
– DAX record close, FTSE highest in 1yr
– Dovish ECB commentary

– Moscow’s largest concert hall attacked. Explosions and shooting reported, 40 dead, 100+ wounded

– Blinken ‘warns’ Netanyahu
– US Hose passes Gov Funding Bill

Equities down to UNCH, Treasuries up, Crude down smalls, Dollar up strong, GC retesting 2150’s, Crypto Falls on ETF inflow waning

Prices at 3.30PM EST
DOLLAR DX UP: 104.19                  +0.5% (103.84 – 104.19) HIGHS
– AUD DOWN: 65.11                       -0.9% (65.75 – 65.11) LOWS
– EUR UP: 92.55                               +0.55 % (92.02 – 92.55) HIGHS
– GBP DOWN: 125.90                     -0.53% (126.71 – 125.76) Just off Lows
– JPY down: 151.45                         -0.1% (151.80 – 151.02) MID

GOLD Down: $2165                        -0.9% ($2181 – $2158) Off Lows
DOW/ES/ND down to UNCH:       39921 -0.7%, 5297 -0.1%, 18572 UNCH%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN:            -1620/-2.4% 63864, -94/-2.75% 3345 Off Lows
CRUDE down: $80.78                     -0.35%/-0.30$ ($81.40 – $80.45) Off Lows


US PCE/Personal Income, Spending/Feds Powell/Durable Goods, GDP (final)/Pending Home Sales

JAP: BoJ/Employment/industrial Prod/Housing Starts/Retail Sales



Fed Powell



Index continued its bid north of 104.00 on Friday to finish the week at the highest level since February 16th. There was a lack of US data/Fed developments on Friday with upside buoyed by weakness in the Euro and Yuan.

DOLLAR DX UP: 104.19                  +0.5% (103.84 – 104.19) HIGHS

No call

10 –

Aussie eye’s CPI next week as it trades around the Pivotal 65 Handle.

AUD DOWN: 65.11                         -0.9% (65.75 – 65.11) LOWS

No call


Weaker vs the Dollar after BoE governor Bailey said rate cuts are in play at future BoE meetings amid signs that tighter policy quelled the risk of a wage-price spiral, via FT. Meanwhile, UK retail sales were stronger than expected in February, but still flat M/M. Cable fell from peaks of 1.2675 to lows of 1.2576. Technicians are eying 1.2550 as support; the February 16th low.

GBP DOWN: 125.90                        -0.53% (126.71 – 125.76) Just off Lows

No call

German data was stronger than expected and it briefly halted the slide throughout the European session before selling resumed in the US session aided by some dovish ECB remarks. Nagel said the probability is rising that rates will be lowered ahead of the Summer break, Lagarde was optimistic on inflation and growth, while Scicluna, speaking to Econostream, refused to rule out a cut in April. Holzmann the hawk was on the flip side however, suggesting investors should consider the risk that the ECB does not lower rates this year but noted a rate cut is in preparation, although timing is unclear.

EUR UP: 92.55                                  +0.55 % (92.02 – 92.55) HIGHS

No call


Strengthened vs the buck but USD/JPY found support at 151.00. The dovish ECB commentary and upside in bonds had given some support to the Yen which benefited from rate differentials with Yen strength seen despite softer than expected inflation numbers while the 2nd tally of the RENGO wage talks eased marginally. Earlier on, remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda repeated that their JGB holdings will remain at current levels for the time being, but refused to comment on the recent FX moves.

JPY down: 151.45                            -0.1% (151.80 – 151.02) MID

No call


“A possible flush out of nervous longs down to 2150+ is an opp to go long. Anything below 2170 ease in as I doubt we’ll see a number starting with 215
Buy Dips is now the firm case.”

I issued a Buy call at 2160 in General Chat additionally today.
Again, Anything which starts with a 215 I believe is a good buy.

Dollar Strength cited as well as overbought reason for sell-off.

GOLD Down: $2165                        -0.9% ($2181 – $2158) Off Lows

Buy 215+

–  SPX -0.14% 5,234
– NDX +0.10% 18,339
– DJI -0.77% 39,476
– RUT -1.27% 2,072

– DAX: +0.18% 18,213
– CAC: -0.34% 8,152
– FTSE: +0.61% 7,931
– ES50: -0.43% 5,030

SECTORS (S to W): Communication Services +0.85%, Technology +0.45%, Utilities +0.15%, Health -0.14%, Energy -0.2%, Industrials -0.34%, Consumer Staples -0.56%, Materials -0.59%, Consumer Discretionary -0.63%, Financials -1.21%, Real Estate -1.24%

Lululemon Athletica -16%: Shares tumbled over 11% in after hours trade on soft comps and weak FY guidance.
Nike -7%: Although shares initially rallied after its earnings report was published, they slipped into the red during the conference call. The quarter was strong although margins disappointed. On the call, execs acknowledged that the apparel maker had lost share in its running shoes category, sending shares into the red and announced it was to cut back on inventories of “classic” shoes to focus on upcoming launches and new product development.
FedEx +7%: Shares surged post-earnings after a strong EPS beat alongside strong margins while it also announced a new USD 5bln buyback programme; revenue missed, however. Note, co. exec said that DRIVE was having a real impact, supporting both operating income growth and margin expansion



Oil prices were ultimately lower, just about clutching a consecutive W/W gain, with strength out of Europe faded through the NY session. WTI and Brent (K4) futures hit peaks of USD 81.45/bbl and 86.15/bbl, respectively, at the NY handover, before gradually unwinding from there, weighed on by the strong Dollar. The deteriorating Ukraine/Russia situation was in focus Friday, with the FT reporting the US has urged Ukraine to halt strikes against Russian oil refineries, with concerns Russia may retaliate, including striking the CPC pipeline. Russian officials also declared to domestic press on Friday that the invasion of Ukraine was a “war” for the first time, more pointed than its usual description of it being a “special military operation”. Meanwhile, Russia and China blocked a US resolution for a Gaza ceasefire at the UN, although the resolution was significant in that it marked a notable breach between the US and Israel. Energy newsflow was otherwise on the light side for the session, although in the US, the Baker Hughes US rig count (w/e March 22nd) saw oil rigs down one at 509 and Nat Gas down four at 112. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.

CRUDE down: $80.78                     -0.35%/-0.30$ ($81.40 – $80.45) Off Lows


US 1-MO 5.368 -0.012
US 6-MO 5.299 -0.013
US 1-YR 5.978 -0.021
US 5-YR 4.195 -0.058
US 10-YR 4.21 -0.061
US 30-YR 4.387 -0.055

2YR/10YR -0.39

– BTC worst week since August as ETF inflow wains
– Group 10 Spot ETF’s most outflow Since creation Jan 11
– BTC down 7% on week
– Sustained open interest (CME futures) & ETF outflow BEARISH
– JPM Calls $42k on cards post Halving. This punter agrees it’s a sell the news, will test $50 and stops to take mid-low 40’s.
– Net $836m pulled from ETF’s Mon-Thurs

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN:            -1620/-2.4% 63864, -94/-2.75% 3345 Off Lows


Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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