MARKET REPORT
Review:
– BoE Holds rates UNCH at 5.25% (Expected) (Voting 8-1, 1 for cut. Exp 7-2, 1 cut and 1 hike) (Slightly more DOVISH)
– Gov Bailey expressed favourable conditions for beginning reduction but stressed greater necessity for certainty regarding price pressures
– FTSE closed 11 month highs
– STOXX 50 23yr highs
– STOXX 600 all-time highs
– Swiss National Bank cut unexpectedly, 1st cut 9 yrs
– Hawkish Norges
– EU PMI’s suggest EZ stabilizing after 9 months contraction
– US Current account deficit closed to $194B vs Exp $209B
– US Weekly Jobless fell by 2k to 210k vs Exp 215k indicates tight labour mkt. 4 week avg is 211250
– US Philly Factory activity softens to 3.2 for Mar from 5.2 Feb BUT above Exp -2.3
– US Manfac PMI highest in 2 years. 52.5 vs prev 52.2 vs Exp 51.7 (HAWKISH INFLATION)
– US Existing Home Sales soared. +9.5% to 4.38m units vs Exp 3.95m. Highest lvl in a yr.
– US median Home Price $384500 (+5.7% YoY)
– US Avg rate 30yr Mortgage 6.74%, Spring season commencing (Housing mkt is HUGELY seasonal here in the States)
– CAD Stocks hit all-time highs
– Gold hits $2213 over night before collapsing back below the $2200 handle (wonder who called that?)
– Reddit Shares soar as much as 70% in IPO on NYSE, close up 45%
– AAPL sued by DoJ on smartphone monopoly
– Russia hits Kiev first time 44 days. 30+ missiles
– Dollar/Equities/GC UP, Treasuries Flatten, Crude off small
DOLLAR DX UP: 103.725 +0.66% (102.86 – 103.725) HIGHS
– AUD down: 65.70 -0.13% (66.35 – 65.63) LOWS
– EUR UP: 92.06 +0.58% (91.36 – 92.09) HIGHS
– GBP: 126.53 -1.03% (128.03 – 126.53) LOWS
– JPY UP: 151.63 +0.28% (150.37 – 151.75) HIGHS
GOLD UP: $2183 +1.03% ($2213 – $2170) Off Lows
DOW/ES/ND up: 40234 +0.75%, 5305 +0.35%, 18570 +0.5%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: -750/-1.15% 65520, +61/+1.8% 3468
CRUDE down: $81.02 -0.31%/-0.25$ ($81.88 – $80.34)
Upcoming:
JAP: YoY Inflation Rate, Rengo
AU: Consumer inflation Exp, RBA Fin Stab Review
UK: Retail Sales
DE: IFO
CAD: Retail Sales
Speakers:
Feds Powell Barr, Bostic
ECB Lane
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar surged on Thursday, paring the post-Fed downside with DXY reclaiming 104 the handle.
The DXY upside came out of Europe after the SNB surprised with a 25bp rate cut, out-doving the Fed. Strength continued in wake of US data which saw jobless claims slightly beneath expectations, a beat on the Philly Fed, and some inflation-warning commentary in the S&P Flash PMIs. The DXY went on to reclaim the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200d MA to see a peak of 104.05, testing the Monday peak at 104.14 pre-Fed.
DOLLAR DX UP: 103.725 +0.66% (102.86 – 103.725) HIGHS
No call
10 –
AUD:
Strong Australian jobs report kept the AUD buoyed vs the NZD, particularly after a disappointing GDP report but both gave ground to the rampant USD.
Aussie data out this morn.
AUD down: 65.70 -0.13% (66.35 – 65.63) LOWS
No call pre data
6s
GBP
Pound was also a laggard after the BoE rate decision which left rates on hold as expected while both hawks switched their votes to unchanged while Dhingra the Dove called for a cut once again, leaving it an 8-1 vote split. The GBP selling pressure picked up after BoE Governor Bailey said that it is reasonable that markets are pricing in rate cuts this year, given the path of inflation, noting he is very hopeful and encouraged by good signs within the economy. Cable hit a low of 1.2654 from a peak of 1.2803.
GBP: 126.53 -1.03% (128.03 – 126.53) LOWS
No call with Retail Sales
EUR
Euro was softer amid the Dollar strength while PMI data was mixed; French PMIs were soft, German PMIs were mixed, while the overall EU PMI beat on services and composite but missed on manufacturing.
EUR UP: 92.06 +0.58% (91.36 – 92.09) HIGHS
No call
9-
YEN:
Eyes on JAP inflation data TONIGHT, 2nd round of Rengo.
JPY UP: 151.63 +0.28% (150.37 – 151.75) HIGHS
No call Pre Data
1
GOLD & SILVER:
The story overnight with April futures hitting 2213 before collapsing back to 2170 afore closing at 2183.
“Expect a test of the $2200 level, and stops. Look for a close above to signify more strength.” Yest mkt report. Trade was at 2186 at time of posting. Hopefully some made money on the recommends.
With 3 rate cuts committed by the Fed and sticky inflationary data general Bullish sentiment is developing by the broader marketplace in its appetite for the Gold hedge.
A possible flush out of nervous longs down to 2150+ is an opp to go long. Anything below 2170 ease in as I doubt we’ll see a number starting with 215
Buy Dips is now the firm case.
GOLD UP: $2183 +1.03% ($2213 – $2170) Off Lows
Buy Dips.
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.32% 5,242
– NDX +0.44% 18,320
– DJI +0.68% 39,781
– RUT +1.14% at 2,098
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.88% 18,174
– CAC: +0.22% 8,180
– FTSE: +1.88% 7,882.55
– ES50: +1.02% 5,051.55
SECTORS (S to W): Industrials +1%, Financials +0.85%, Energy +0.54%, Consumer Discretionary +0.46%, Real Estate +0.43%, Materials +0.4%, Technology +0.14%, Health +0.11%, Consumer Staples +0.04%, Communication Services -0.17%, Utilities -0.21%.
STOCKS
– Reddit +47%: Reddit opened at USD 47/shr vs IPO price of USD 34/shr.
– Apple -4.2%: DoJ filed an antitrust lawsuit against AAPL for monopolization of the smartphone market.
– Nvidia +1.3%: Announced that Q1 2025 earnings would be published on May 22nd, 2024. Separately, the CEO told CNBC that Nvidia has created markets that did not exist before, rather than take share from existing markets. Added that the most important thing for a country is to create its own sovereign AI.
– Guess +20%: Earnings beat with strong FY revenue guidance, it also declared a special dividend of USD 2.25/shr.
– Chewy -10%: Top and bottom line beat expectations but guidance disappointed.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLES USD 0.20 LOWER AT 81.07/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLES USD 0.17 LOWER AT 85.78/BBL
Oil prices were ultimately lower on Thursday with gains during APAC unwound through the rest of the session. Energy newsflow was on the light side although the Middle East remained in focus after an Israeli official said, via Sky New Arabia, that Israeli forces will control Rafah even if it causes a “rift’ with Washington”. That followed Al-Arabiya sources reporting that there had been pressure put on Israel to postpone the Rafah operation for at least 45 days from mediators. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Russian refinery throughput was down by 7.5% to 5mln BPD over March 14th-20th from March 1st-13th, following Ukrainian drone attacks on facilities. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE down: $81.02 -0.31%/-0.25$ ($81.88 – $80.34)
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.36 -0.014
US 6-MO 5.312 -0.004
US 1-YR 5.007 +0.008
US 5-YR 4.257 +0.015
US 10-YR 4.271 UNCH
US 30-YR 4.436 -0.019
2YR/10YR -0.37
CRYPTO
– BTC off, ETH up, ICP board leader, Toncoin board loser
– Bitcoin CASH surges higher, Investors look for exposure to cryptocurrencies with transaction based business models. Coinbase (largest CC exchange) announced futures on BTC CASH on April 1st.
– Kaspa, Continued interest in its high-speed network growth alongside its reported transaction throughput numbers.
– Stacks pop and drop on comments of its founder on increased focus on altcoins (talk your book there pal)
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: -750/-1.15% 65520, +61/+1.8% 3468
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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