Market in Review 3/19/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– BoJ ends NIRP, ETF purchases and YCC, but maintains JGB purchase pace

– RBA removes tightening bias

– Soft Canada inflation

– US Housing Starts and Building Permits beat

– Kering warn of soft Gucci sales, particularly in China

– NVDA to take large chunk of accelerated computing market

– Very strong 20yr bond auction

– SMCI share offering

DOLLAR up DX: 103.47                  +0.22% (Data unavail)
– AUD down: 65.36                          -0.37% (Data unavail)
– EUR Flat: 92.00                              UNCH(Data unavail)
– GBP UNCH: 127.20                       UNCH (Data unavail)
– JPY UP: 150.77                                 +1.12% (Data unavail)

GOLD UNCH: $2160                        UNCH (Data unavail)
DOW/ES/ND up:                               39537 +0.8%, 5241 +0.5%, 18270 +0.2%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN:            -4000/-6% 63770, -260/-7.3% 3278
CRUDE UP: $83.20                          +0.6+%/+$0.48 (Data unavail)

Upcoming:

FOMC, CNB, BCB Policy Announcement; BoC Minutes
Chinese LPR, UK CPI, PPI, Italian Industrial Output, EZ Consumer Confidence, Australian PMIs

Speakers: Fed Chair Powell; ECB President Lagarde, de Cos, Lane, Schnabel

MAJORS:

DX:  
Index was bid thanks to the Yen weakness to see DXY briefly rise above 104.00 to a peak of 104.06 in the European morning before ultimately easing back beneath the level during the US session as eyes turn to the FOMC on Wednesday.

DOLLAR up DX: 103.47                  +0.22% (Data unavail)

No call

10 –

AUD:
Aussie was softer after the RBA rate decision which left rates on hold as expected and reiterated it remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target. Although, there was a slight language tweak where it said the board is not ruling anything in or out on interest rates (it had previously said further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out).

– AUD down: 65.36                          -0.37% (Data unavail)

No call

6s

EUR
Relatively flat vs the Dollar with EUR/USD trading between 1.0835-76. The German ZEW economic sentiment was much stronger than expected while on the ECB, Kazaks said that he is comfortable with the current market pricing on rates and that moving at forecast meetings is “more straightforward” but said it will take some time to get to the neutral rate. De Guindos stressed data dependence, while de Cos said they could cut in June but it is conditional on the data. An Econostream ECB insider article also noted that data is yet to be made available when determining the frequency of rate easing after the first move in June, but the magnitude of 25bbps is a given absent any major surprises.

– EUR Flat: 92.00                              UNCH(Data unavail)

No call

9-

YEN:
Yen was the FX highlight, seeing notable weakness in wake of the BoJ rate decision, which as alluded to by Nikkei on Monday, ended NIRP, ETF purchases and YCC, although the BoJ also announced its JGB purchase schedule which is at a similar pace to what it was beforehand. With the decision largely as expected, Yen saw notable weakness to see USD/JPY peak at 150.95 from lows of 149.04.

– JPY UP: 150.77                                 +1.12% (Data unavail)

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:
“I have had $2150 as support for several days now.
Market touched this level and bounced.
I hope some made $$ from this. “
Yest Mkt report and previous mKt report.

GOLD UNCH: $2160                        UNCH (Data unavail)

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.56% 5,179
– DX +0.26% 18,032
– DJI +0.83% 39,111
– RUT +0.54% 2,036

EUR INDEXES:
– ES 50: +0.48% 5,006.55
– FTSE: +0.20% 7,738.30
– CAC: +0.65% 8,201.05
– DAX: +0.31% 17,988.13

SECTORS (S to W): Energy +1.08%, Utilities +0.92%, Consumer Discretionary +0.86%, Industrials +0.82%, Health +0.67%, Technology +0.64%, Financials +0.48%, Consumer Staples +0.35%, Materials +0.03%, Real Estate unchanged, Communication Services -0.17%.

STOCKS
Nvidia +1%: NVDA introduces the B200 plus a ton of partnerships with other companies, including, AMZN, DELL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL, TSLA, and many more. Sell-side commentary all remains very bullish on NVDA but they note there were no big surprises at the event. NVDA opened in the red but ultimately closed green with positive takeaways from the analyst call. Exec said the Blackwell chip will be priced between USD 30-40k (predecessor was USD 30k), and they plan to start shipping the chips later this year. The CEO also noted that the total addressable market for accelerated computing could cost a total USD 250bln per year, and NVDA is to get a larger chunk of that.

Nordstrom +10%: JWN is reportedly working with Morgan Stanley and Centerview partners in an attempt to go private, according to sources via Reuters.

OIL:

WTI (J4) SETTLES USD 0.75 HIGHER AT 83.47/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLES USD 0.49 HIGHER AT 87.38/BBL

The oil rally kept on chugging on Tuesday with simmering geopolitics in the background. WTI (J4) and Brent (K4) hit session peaks of USD 83.85/bbl and 87.70/bbl, respectively, not long before settlement. Israel/Gaza remains a hot spot, with PM Netanyahu insisting Tuesday that Israel will launch a ground assault on Rafah despite US pressure not to. Meanwhile, Russian press TASS reported that France is preparing a military contingent of 2k troops to be sent to Ukraine, where the Russian spy chief said the unit would be a priority target for Russia, although a French source to Reuters later put some cold water on the claims. Note that following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, the Russian Energy Minister said there are plans to defend oil and gas facilities with missile systems. Russian oil exports have risen in the near term as a result of the attacks, where JPMorgan’s analysts note that the attacks are likely cutting Russian crude runs by an additional 300k BPD beyond scheduled maintenance closures. Attention is now on the weekly US crude inventory data, with crude stocks seen flat W/W, gasoline stocks drawing 1.4mln bbls, and distillate stocks drawing -0.1mln bbls. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.


BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.382 -0.004
US 6-MO 5.342 -0.003
US 1-YR 5.095 +0.002
US 5-YR 4.299 -0.057
US 10-YR 4.293 -0.047
US 30-YR 4.437 -0.029

2YR/10YR -0.39

CRYPTO
– BTC and ETH puke on reduced ETF fund inflow.
– Having charting issues so cant get data, but as called a withdraw to 60 on cards.

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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