MARKET REPORT
Review:
– BoJ mouthpiece confirms historic end to negative rates next week, first hike in 17yrs
– Strong RENGO wage data
– Russia Votes
– First Day of Ramadan, First Aid ship nears Gaza
– Netayahu Greenlights Rafa offensive, rejects Hamas preposterous cease-fire
– Biden backs Schumer as Senator calls for new election in Israel
– Uni Mich Consumer Sentiment 76.5 for Mar, lower than 76.9 Feb and lowest in 3 months. Exp were for 76.9
– US Export prices rise more than Exp
– US Import prices rise for 2nd month inline with Exp
– NY State Manufact Exp -7 Act -21 Prev -2.4 Feb
– US Indust Output Increased by 0.1% Exp 0.0%, up from 2 consec months decline, but TENTH MONTH REVISION LOWER IN LAST 11 MONTHS (and 14th of last 17)
– US Manf Output Rose more than Expected
– US Capacity Utilisation rate below forecasts
– CAC closes week record high. UK edges down but posts weekly gain
– Oil books 3.5% weekly gain, 4 month highs
– Treasuries slump, Stocks slide on hot inflation prints poss Fed Re-think
– Nvidia Annual GTC conference Monday
– Fisker shares surge on talks with large automaker (+13%)
DOLLAR DX: UNCH: 103.05 UNCH (102.93 – 103.12) Off Highs
– AUD Down: 65.60 -0.35% (65.54 – 65.74) Off Lows
– EUR UNCH: 91.82 UNCH (91.91 – 91.72) Mid
– GBP down: 127.34 -0.14% (127.59 – 127.26) Off Lows
– JPY UP: 149.05 +0.53% (148.05 – 149.13) HIGHS
GOLD down: $2161 -0.3% ($2176 – $2159) Lows
DOW/ES/ND DOWN: 38700 -0.55%, 5115 -0.75%, 17900 -0.7%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: -700/-1% 68888, -95/-2.5% 3680
CRUDE UNCH: $81.01 UNCH/$0.00 ($80.50 – $81.40) MID
Upcoming:
Week Ahead:
US FOMC includes FOMC economic forecasts and the ‘dot-plot’ interest rate projections.
– Manufact & Services PMI
– Building Perm, Housing starts, Existing Homes sales
IR Decisions in AUS, JAP & UK
Inflation in CAD, JAP
Flash Manufacturing AUS, JAP, UK
CHI: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemploy, loan prime rates & fixed asset investment.
Speakers:
MAJORS:
DX:
Flat to end the week and within very tight ranges (103.30-49) as it held onto Thursday’s PPI-induced gains as traders await key macro risk events next week, namely FOMC, Nvidia GTC, and BoJ, amongst others. Nonetheless, NY Fed Manufacturing (Mar) was soft, and printed outside of the forecast range, while Prelim UoM (Mar) saw the headline marginally miss with 1yr and 5yr consumer inflation expectations unchanged at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively, despite expectations for a slight rise.
DOLLAR DX: UNCH: 103.05 UNCH (102.93 – 103.12) Off Highs
No call
10 –
AUD:
All eyes on RBA next Tues. Nothing of note session with a 20 pip rgr.
AUD Down: 65.60 -0.35% (65.54 – 65.74) Off Lows
No call
6s
GBP
Next week BoE have all eyes on. Quiet session 30 pip rgr.
BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey saw 1yr inflation expectation slip to 3% from 3.3%. FYI.
GBP down: 127.34 -0.14% (127.59 – 127.26) Off Lows
No call
12-
EUR
Quiet session despite plenty of ECB speak (Rehn, Vujcic, Lane, Makhlouf, Villeroy). 20 pip rgr.
EUR UNCH: 91.82 UNCH (91.91 – 91.72) Mid
No call
9-
YEN:
The Yen failed to garner any impetus from the much-awaited RENGO wage data which secured its largest wage hike in 33 years and set the stage for next week’s BoJ as money markets are now tilting towards an exit of NIRP. The latest BoJ sources, via Nikkei, said the central bank is expected to end its negative interest rates. Despite participants awaiting the RENGO, USD/JPY did not see much reaction as on the day it saw a high of 149.17 and a low of 148.04.
JPY UP: 149.05 +0.53% (148.05 – 149.13) HIGHS
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
A quiet day with nothing of note to report. SI Outperformed up 1.36% to GC’s -0.3%
GOLD down: $2161 -0.3% ($2176 – $2159) Lows
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.65% 5,117
– NDX -1.15% 17,808
– DJIA -0.49% 38,714
– RUT +0.40% 2,039
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -0.08% 17,923.15
– FTSE 100: -0.20% 7,727.42
– CAC 40: +0.04% 8,164.35
– Euro Stoxx 50: -0.10% 4,988.95
SECTORS (W to S): Technology -1.29%, Communication Services -1.18%, Consumer Discretionary -1.14%, Health -0.37%, Consumer Staples -0.11%, Real Estate -0.09%, Financials -0.05%, Industrials +0.08%, Materials +0.08%, Utilities +0.12%, Energy +0.23%.
STOCKS
– Fisker +13% on talks with large automotive producer. 5 days down 55%, one month -75%, 6 months down 95% on Bankruptcy Fears.
– Adobe -13.5%: Next quarter EPS and revenue guidance were light, putting a dampener on any upside to its FY guidance. Note, top and bottom line beat alongside a new USD 25bln share repurchase program
– I names such as NXP Semiconductor, and ON Semiconductor saw weakness after China urges EV makers to buy local chips as US clash deepens.
– Spotify -1%: Said its iPhone app updates in the EU were getting held up by Apple.
– Housing names (RDFN, Z, LMND, OPEN, RMAX, COMP) : US National Association of Realtors has agreed to cut commissions in order to settle lawsuits, via NY Times; group to pay USD 418mln in damages/amend housing rules, which could drive-down housing costs.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 0.22 LOWER AT 81.04/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLED USD 0.08 LOWER AT 85.34/BBL
Oil prices were choppy on Friday but closed the week near highs after Thursday’s breakout higher. There were few market-moving energy sector updates on Friday, although there was some upside seen earlier in the session on the back of reports from the Israeli government that PM Netanyahu had approved plans for operations in Rafah”, saying that Hamas’ demands in its latest offer were “still unreasonable”, marking another stumbling block for a ceasefire in the region. Elsewhere, the latest Baker Hughes US rig count saw oil rigs up six at 510 and nat gas rigs up one at 116. In the east, Reuters reported the amount of Russian oil refining capacity shut down due to drone attacks in Q1 has totalled 4.6mln metric tons (370.5k BPD), or 7% of the total. JPMorgan’s strats believe that Russia can maintain its oil exports at the current levels through June, even as it cuts crude production by 0.5mln BPD. JPM noted that a drop in Russian exports could spur price pressures of an additional USD 5/bbl to its forecast of USD 88-90/bbl by May and the mid-80/bbl region in H2 2024. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE UP: $81.07 +1.7%/$1.37 ($79.66 – $81.60) Off highs
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.381 -0.005
US 6-MO 5.337 +0.003
US 1-YR 5.082 +0.015
US 5-YR 4.329 +0.035
US 10-YR 4.308 +0.01
US 30-YR 4.431 -0.012
2YR/10YR -0.42
CRYPTO
– Solana +10% best, Eth -5% , Doge -7% worst
– Senators Urge SEC to Halt ETF approvals amid concerns
– BTC sales of its Non-Fungible-Tokens (NFT’s) recorded $22m (24hrs) vs previous day $12mil (+76%)
– Prosecutors see 40-50yrs for SBF
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: -700/-1% 68888, -95/-2.5% 3680
“Feel a retrace to 60k on cards. Betting 60 pre 80. Had 73.5k+ the other day as a sell, still hold same opine.”
Yest Mkt Report.
Tough to call. We got to 66k before a short squeeze had us up around 70. Think washing over the weekend with squeezes both ways 65k to 71.5k
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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